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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Sri LankaSri Lanka Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to 4.2% in December 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2026
Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to 4.2% in December 2025, released January 2026, down 11.4% from November's 15.6% reading. The reading missed the 12.5% consensus by 8.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 15.89%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 20.47%, vs 11.2% in the prior 3-month window. Tourist Arrivals YoY is now the lowest in 26 months.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
12.5
Consensus
15.6
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Sri Lanka) was reported at 9.65 in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -22.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.21, ranging from -22.30 to 30.20 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.18, down from the prior three at 9.83. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.41) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.43). In June readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 19.52.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - LK
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Sri Lanka
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 9.65 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -22.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -19.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.