Latvia GDP Growth Rate Holds at 0.6% in January: Services and Exports Lead Gains
Latvia’s economic momentum stabilized in January, with the GDP growth rate quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) coming in at 0.6%. This matches the previous reading from November and signals a continued recovery from last year’s contraction. Below, we break down the key drivers, historical context, and market implications.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services: +0.22pp
- Exports: +0.15pp
- Manufacturing: +0.09pp
- Construction: -0.08pp
Policy pulse
Latvia’s 0.6% QoQ GDP growth in January remains above the European Central Bank’s euro area average, which stood at 0.1% for Q4 2025[1]. Inflation pressures have eased, reducing the risk of overtightening.
Market lens
Markets showed little immediate reaction to the release, as the figure matched consensus and signaled stability. The euro held steady against major peers, while Latvian government bond yields were unchanged.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: 0.6% QoQ
- November 2025: 0.6% QoQ
- August 2025: 0.4% QoQ
- May 2025: -0.1% QoQ
- February 2025: 0.1% QoQ
- November 2024: -0.2% QoQ
Comparative benchmarks
Latvia’s 12-month average GDP growth rate stands at 0.18%. The current print is well above this trend, marking the second consecutive quarter at 0.6%. Compared to the euro area’s 0.1% for Q4 2025, Latvia’s growth remains robust[1].
Market lens
Regional equities remained stable as investors digested the steady growth. The data reinforced confidence in Latvia’s near-term economic trajectory.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25%): Services and exports accelerate, pushing QoQ growth above 0.8% in coming quarters.
- Base case (60%): GDP growth remains in the 0.4%–0.7% range, with moderate gains in services and manufacturing.
- Bearish (15%): External demand weakens or construction contracts further, pulling growth below 0.3%.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include stronger euro area demand and improved investment inflows. Downside risks stem from construction weakness and potential trade disruptions. The Latvian Central Statistical Bureau provides the official data, using seasonally adjusted chain-linked volumes[2].
Market lens
Bond markets remain cautious as investors weigh the durability of Latvia’s recovery. The steady print reduces the likelihood of abrupt monetary policy shifts in the near term.
Closing Thoughts
Key takeaways
- GDP growth rate held at 0.6% QoQ in January, matching November’s pace.
- Services and exports drove gains; construction lagged.
- Growth outpaces euro area average and 12-month trend.
- Market reaction muted as print aligned with consensus.
- Risks remain balanced, with a stable base case outlook.
Market lens
Investors are watching for sustained momentum as Latvia’s economy consolidates its recovery. The next quarters will test the resilience of this expansion.
Key Markets Reacting to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Latvia’s steady GDP growth rate at 0.6% has drawn attention from regional and international markets. While the immediate reaction was muted, several tradable instruments remain sensitive to shifts in Latvian economic momentum. Below are key symbols with direct or indirect exposure to the country’s macroeconomic trajectory.
- AAPL — Apple’s European sales segment includes the Baltic region; stronger Latvian growth can support demand for consumer electronics.
- EURUSD — The euro’s performance often reflects aggregate euro area data, with Latvia’s above-trend growth providing marginal support.
- BTCUSD — Crypto markets sometimes react to regional economic data, with stable growth in Latvia seen as neutral for risk sentiment.
| Year | LV GDP QoQ (%) | EURUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -6.1 | Down |
| 2022 | 2.2 | Up |
| 2024 | -1.1 | Down |
| 2026 | 0.6 | Flat |
Since 2020, periods of Latvian GDP contraction have coincided with euro weakness, while rebounds have supported stability in EURUSD. The current steady growth aligns with a flat euro trend.
FAQ: Latvia GDP Growth Rate Holds at 0.6% in January: Services and Exports Lead Gains
- What is Latvia’s latest GDP Growth Rate QoQ?
- Latvia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ for January 2026 is 0.6%, matching the previous reading from November 2025.
- What are the main drivers behind Latvia’s GDP growth?
- Services and exports contributed most to Latvia’s GDP growth in January, while construction was a drag.
- How does Latvia’s GDP growth compare to the euro area average?
- Latvia’s 0.6% QoQ growth outpaces the euro area’s 0.1% for Q4 2025, reflecting stronger momentum.
Latvia’s economy has stabilized, with GDP growth outpacing the regional average and markets responding with cautious optimism.
Updated 2/27/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- European Central Bank, Euro Area GDP Growth Rate, Q4 2025, official release.
- Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, GDP data methodology and quarterly releases.
January’s GDP growth rate held at 0.6% QoQ, unchanged from November and well above the 12-month average of 0.18%. The last six quarters show a marked turnaround from the -1.1% contraction in July 2024 and the -0.9% in August 2024. Since then, the economy has posted four consecutive positive quarters, with the latest two at the same level.
Compared to May’s -0.1% and August’s 0.4%, the current reading underscores a sustained rebound. The volatility seen in 2024 has given way to a more stable growth pattern, with services and exports providing the main lift.