Latvia GDP YoY: Growth Holds at 2.9% in January, Highest Since 2024
Latvia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.9% year-over-year in January 2026, unchanged from December’s revised figure. This marks the strongest annual growth rate since late 2024, according to official data from the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia and Sigmanomics.[1]
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services output: +1.3 percentage points
- Manufacturing: +0.8pp
- Construction: +0.4pp
- Agriculture: +0.2pp
Policy pulse
Latvia’s 2.9% annual GDP growth remains above the European Central Bank’s medium-term target for the euro area, reflecting a robust domestic rebound.
Market lens
Latvian equities and the euro saw muted reaction to the steady GDP print. Investors had largely priced in the continuation of the recovery, with the reading in line with recent trends. The lack of surprise limited immediate market moves, but the sustained growth rate supports a constructive outlook for local assets.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: 2.9% YoY
- December 2025: 2.9%
- November 2025: 2.5%
- September 2025: 1.7%
- August 2025: 0.6%
- May 2025: -0.3%
- February 2025: -0.4%
Trend signals
GDP growth has accelerated for five consecutive readings, rebounding from a contraction of -0.4% in February 2025 to the current 2.9%. The 12-month average now stands at 1.2%.
Policy pulse
With growth above the euro area average, policymakers are monitoring for signs of overheating but have not signaled imminent changes to the policy stance.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish: Growth accelerates above 3.2% (probability: 25%) if external demand and investment strengthen.
- Base: GDP growth stabilizes between 2.5% and 3.0% (probability: 60%) as domestic consumption and exports remain steady.
- Bearish: Growth slips below 2.0% (probability: 15%) if euro area headwinds or supply disruptions re-emerge.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include stronger EU demand and fiscal support. Downside risks stem from external shocks, inflationary pressures, and potential policy tightening.
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia and Sigmanomics, based on chain-linked volume measures, seasonally and calendar adjusted.[1]
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Latvia’s steady GDP growth has reinforced confidence in the country’s economic trajectory. The sustained expansion, coupled with a broad-based sectoral recovery, supports a constructive outlook for local assets and policy stability.Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product YoY
Latvia’s GDP data can influence regional equities, the euro, and risk sentiment in European markets. While direct exposure to Latvian assets is limited, broader European benchmarks and currency pairs often reflect shifts in Baltic economic momentum. Below are select symbols with verified listings on Sigmanomics, each showing sensitivity to macroeconomic releases.
- AAPL – Apple’s European sales can be affected by Baltic consumer trends.
- EURUSD – The euro’s value often responds to GDP surprises across member states.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin trading volumes in the region can rise on strong economic prints.
| Year | LV GDP YoY (%) | EURUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -2.8 | Down |
| 2022 | 2.1 | Up |
| 2025 | -0.4 | Flat |
| 2026 | 2.9 | Up |
EURUSD has historically tracked the direction of Latvian and broader euro area GDP surprises, with stronger growth supporting the euro.
FAQ: Latvia GDP YoY: Growth Holds at 2.9% in January, Highest Since 2024
- What does Latvia’s 2.9% GDP YoY growth mean for investors?
- Latvia’s 2.9% annual GDP growth signals a robust economic rebound, supporting confidence in local and regional assets.
- How does this GDP reading compare to recent history?
- The 2.9% growth rate is the highest since late 2024 and marks a sharp turnaround from the contraction seen in early 2025.
- What is the focus of this report?
- This report analyzes Latvia’s latest GDP YoY data, sector drivers, historical context, and implications for markets and policy.
Latvia’s economy has returned to solid growth, with momentum building across key sectors.
Updated 2/27/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Sigmanomics database, official GDP releases (2025–2026).
January’s 2.9% YoY GDP growth matches December’s pace and exceeds the 12-month average of 1.2%. The latest reading is the highest since November 2024, when GDP growth last surpassed 2.5%.
Compared to August’s 0.6% and May’s -0.3%, the current figure underscores a sharp turnaround. The upward trajectory has been consistent since the third quarter of 2025.