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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MontenegroMontenegro Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to -8.4% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Montenegro Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to -8.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 10.8% from March's 2.4% reading. The reading missed the 1.5% consensus by 9.9%. Tourist Arrivals YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 2.9%, vs -9.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-8.4
Actual
1.5
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13.79 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 6.55
Actual: -8.4
Error: +14.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Montenegro) was reported at -8.4% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.5% by 9.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.04%, ranging from -13% to 8.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.07%, up from the prior three at -4.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.23%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.14%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged -1.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 13.79%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - ME
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Montenegro
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -8.4 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.50) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.