North Macedonia’s Current Account Deficit Widens Sharply in January
North Macedonia’s current account swung back into deficit in January 2026, reversing December’s brief surplus. The latest data highlight renewed external pressures and a challenging trade environment for the country.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Trade deficit: -0.22pp
- Secondary income: -0.09pp
- Services: +0.04pp
Policy pulse
The January current account deficit of MKD -312.3M stands well below the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia’s external stability comfort range. The central bank has not signaled any immediate intervention, but the persistent deficit remains a concern for policymakers.
Market lens
Bond yields rose modestly on the release, reflecting investor caution. The widening deficit has renewed focus on North Macedonia’s external financing needs and the sustainability of its trade position. Currency markets showed limited reaction, but the data underscore ongoing vulnerabilities.Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Goods trade: -0.22pp
- Remittances: -0.07pp
- Tourism receipts: +0.03pp
Policy pulse
The deficit of MKD -312.3M in January 2026 compares to a surplus of MKD 60.4M in December 2025 and a deficit of MKD -220.13M in August 2025. The central bank’s target for a sustainable current account remains unmet for the seventh time in the past twelve months.
Market lens
Equities in Skopje traded flat after the data. Investors appear to be weighing the negative headline against expectations for seasonal improvement in the spring. The current account’s volatility over the past year has kept risk premiums elevated.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios
- Bullish (20–30%): Seasonal export rebound and higher remittances narrow the deficit below MKD -150M by March 2026.
- Base (50–60%): The deficit stabilizes near MKD -200M as trade flows recover modestly and services income improves.
- Bearish (10–20%): Weak external demand and rising imports push the deficit back toward June 2025 levels.
Policy pulse
With the current account deficit exceeding the central bank’s comfort zone, authorities may monitor capital flows more closely. No formal policy adjustment has been announced.
Market lens
FX forwards priced in little additional risk premium. Market participants remain watchful for signs of sustained improvement or further deterioration in the external balance.Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Trade deficit: -0.22pp
- Remittances: -0.07pp
- Services: +0.04pp
Policy pulse
The January 2026 deficit underscores the challenge of achieving a balanced external position. Policymakers face a delicate task in supporting growth while containing external vulnerabilities.
Market lens
Investor sentiment remains cautious. The persistence of large current account deficits will keep North Macedonia’s external position under scrutiny in the coming quarters.Key Markets Reacting to Current Account
North Macedonia’s current account swings can ripple through regional equities, currency pairs, and even global risk sentiment. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to the country’s external balance, reflecting shifts in capital flows and investor risk appetite. Each market segment below includes a verified tradable symbol from the Sigmanomics database.
- AAPL (Stock): Apple’s global supply chain and emerging market exposure make it sensitive to external imbalances in smaller economies.
- EURUSD (Forex): The euro’s regional role means North Macedonian data can influence cross-border flows and sentiment.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin’s risk-on/risk-off profile often tracks shifts in emerging market current account trends.
| Year | Current Account (MKD M) | EURUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -210.5 | Up |
| 2022 | 95.2 | Down |
| 2024 | -185.02 | Flat |
| 2026 (Jan) | -312.3 | Down |
EURUSD has tended to weaken in periods when North Macedonia’s current account deficit widens, reflecting broader risk aversion and capital outflows from the region.
FAQ
- What is North Macedonia’s current account for January 2026?
- The current account posted a deficit of MKD -312.3M in January 2026, reversing December’s surplus.
- Why did the current account swing so sharply this month?
- The deficit widened due to a larger trade gap and lower secondary income, with only modest support from services exports.
- How does this affect North Macedonia’s economic outlook?
- Persistent deficits increase external vulnerability and may prompt closer monitoring by policymakers and investors.
North Macedonia’s current account deficit in January 2026 signals renewed external pressures and highlights the need for export-driven growth.
Updated 2/27/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data, North Macedonia Current Account, accessed 2/27/26.
- National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, Balance of Payments Statistics, accessed 2/27/26.
January’s current account deficit of MKD -312.3M marks a sharp reversal from December’s MKD 60.4M surplus and stands well below the 12-month average of MKD -140.1M. The latest print is the largest deficit since June 2025’s MKD -355.88M. Over the past six months, the current account has oscillated between surplus and deficit, with three readings below MKD -300M.
Volatility remains high: The deficit in January 2026 is 41.9% wider than August 2025’s MKD -220.13M shortfall and nearly matches the MKD -308.84M gap in February 2025. The only larger deficit in the past year occurred in June 2025.