North Macedonia Inflation Rate YoY Slows to 2.9% in February
North Macedonia's consumer price inflation decelerated further in February 2026, extending a steady disinflation streak. The latest data shows headline inflation at its lowest level in nearly a year, with core categories showing broad-based moderation.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Food prices: +0.11 percentage points
- Transport: +0.07 percentage points
- Housing/utilities: +0.04 percentage points
- Clothing/footwear: -0.02 percentage points
Policy Pulse
February's 2.9% YoY inflation print undershot the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia's 2% target by 0.9 percentage points. The gap has narrowed from January's 1.1 percentage point overshoot.
Market Lens
Bond yields edged lower on the softer inflation print. Investors interpreted the data as a sign that price pressures are easing, reducing the likelihood of further monetary tightening in the near term.Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
- February 2026: 2.9%
- January 2026: 3.2%
- December 2025: 4.0%
- October 2025: 4.0%
- August 2025: 4.8% (12-month high)
- April 2025: 2.7% (previous low)
MoM and YoY Trends
Inflation has declined for three consecutive months, falling from 4.1% in January to 2.9% in February. The 12-month average stands at 3.8%, well above the latest reading.
Methodology
Figures are sourced from the State Statistical Office of North Macedonia and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database. The headline rate reflects the annual change in the consumer price index, capturing broad-based shifts in household costs.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Inflation falls below 2.5% by mid-2026, driven by further moderation in food and energy prices.
- Base (50–60%): Inflation stabilizes near 3%, with minor monthly fluctuations as core categories settle.
- Bearish (15–25%): Price growth rebounds above 3.5% if external shocks or supply disruptions re-emerge.
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include renewed energy volatility and currency depreciation. Downside risks stem from weak domestic demand and easing import costs. The central bank's cautious stance remains a key anchor for expectations.
Closing Thoughts
Market Lens
Equities and bonds responded positively to the lower inflation reading. The data reinforced confidence in the central bank's ability to steer inflation closer to target, while supporting risk appetite in local markets.Policy Pulse
With inflation now just 0.9 percentage points above the central bank's 2% target, policymakers are likely to maintain a steady approach, monitoring for any renewed price pressures in the months ahead.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
North Macedonia's inflation data has ripple effects across global markets. Investors track the country's price trends for signals on regional monetary policy, currency stability, and risk appetite. The following tradable symbols have shown sensitivity to inflation releases:
- AAPL — Apple shares often react to global inflation prints, reflecting shifts in consumer demand and input costs.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair is sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy divergence in Europe and its neighbors.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin's price often reflects global inflation sentiment, with investors seeking hedges against fiat currency debasement.
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (%) | EURUSD Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.5 | Ranged 1.08–1.23 |
| 2022 | 3.9 | Declined below 1.00 |
| 2024 | 3.2 | Recovered to 1.10–1.12 |
| 2026 | 2.9 | Stable near 1.08 |
Since 2020, periods of higher inflation in North Macedonia have coincided with EURUSD weakness, while recent disinflation has supported currency stability.
FAQ: North Macedonia Inflation Rate YoY Slows to 2.9% in February
- What is North Macedonia's latest annual inflation rate?
- The country's inflation rate was 2.9% year-over-year in February 2026, the lowest since April 2025.
- How does this reading compare to recent months?
- Inflation has declined for three consecutive months, from 4.1% in January to 2.9% in February.
- What does the 2.9% inflation rate mean for investors?
- It signals easing price pressures, supporting local bonds and equities while reducing the risk of further monetary tightening.
North Macedonia's inflation rate has entered a new phase of moderation, with the February print confirming a decisive disinflation trend.
Updated 3/9/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, North Macedonia Inflation Rate YoY, accessed 3/9/26
- State Statistical Office of North Macedonia, Consumer Price Index releases, February 2026
February's 2.9% inflation rate marks a sharp drop from January's 3.2% and sits well below the 12-month average of 3.8%. The last time inflation was this low was April 2025, when it touched 2.7%.
Disinflation has been broad-based, with food and transport costs showing the most pronounced slowdowns. The headline rate has now fallen for three straight months, reversing the mid-2025 spike.