North Macedonia Retail Sales YoY: December 2025 Print Signals Consumer Slowdown
North Macedonia’s retail sales for December 2025 rose just 1.2% year-over-year, marking a significant deceleration from November’s 2.3% and falling short of the 2.5% consensus estimate. The latest data, released January 30, 2026, underscores mounting headwinds for household spending as the economy enters the new year.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
December 2025’s retail sales growth of 1.2% YoY represents a sharp loss of momentum for North Macedonia’s consumer sector. This reading is the lowest since October 2025, when sales contracted by 0.2%. The 12-month average stands at 0.9%, so December’s figure is only modestly above trend, but the direction is clearly downward.
Drivers this month
- Food and essentials: Modest positive contribution, but growth slowed from November.
- Durables: Weakness persisted, with high interest rates dampening big-ticket purchases.
- Fuel: Volumes fell as energy prices remained elevated.
Policy pulse
The National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia (NBRNM) has maintained a cautious stance, keeping policy rates elevated to anchor inflation. December’s retail sales print, well below the 2.5% estimate, may prompt policymakers to reconsider the pace of tightening if weakness persists.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: MKD/EUR slipped 0.1% in the first hour after release. Local equities saw mild selling, while 2-year government bond yields dipped 4 bps as traders priced in a higher probability of a policy pause.
Foundational Indicators
Retail sales are a bellwether for domestic demand, accounting for a significant share of North Macedonia’s GDP. December’s 1.2% YoY growth is not only below November’s 2.3%, but also lags the 3.0% surge seen in November 2025 and the 2.8% rebound in June 2025. The latest print is just above the 12-month average (0.9%), but the trend is softening.
Drivers this month
- Real wage growth stagnated, limiting disposable income.
- Consumer confidence slipped to a 7-month low, per Sigmanomics database surveys.
- Inflation remained sticky, eroding purchasing power.
Policy pulse
Fiscal policy remains constrained, with the government running a modest deficit and limited room for stimulus. The 2026 budget prioritizes debt stabilization over new spending, reducing the likelihood of a fiscal offset to weak consumption.
Market lens
Equity markets have underperformed regional peers since October, reflecting concerns about domestic demand. The MKBR index, for example, has shown a close correlation with retail sales trends over the past year.
Chart Dynamics
Drivers this month
- Food and beverage: +0.3 pp contribution, but growth decelerated.
- Household goods: -0.1 pp, reflecting weak durable demand.
- Fuel: -0.2 pp, as higher prices curbed volumes.
Policy pulse
The NBRNM’s inflation target remains 2%, but with inflation still above target and retail sales softening, the central bank faces a policy dilemma. The latest data may increase calls for a pause or even a cut if growth risks intensify.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: MKD/EUR slipped 0.1% on the news. The MKDEUR pair has historically tracked retail sales surprises, with weaker prints leading to currency softness. Local bond yields fell as traders bet on a more dovish policy outlook.
Forward Outlook
Scenarios for 2026 Q1
- Bullish (20%): Retail sales rebound to 2.5–3% YoY as inflation eases and real wages recover, supporting GDP growth above 2%.
- Base (60%): Sales stabilize near 1–1.5% YoY, with consumption subdued but recession avoided. Policy remains on hold.
- Bearish (20%): Sales slip below 0.5% YoY or turn negative, triggering growth downgrades and possible rate cuts by mid-2026.
Drivers this month
- External demand: Eurozone slowdown could further weigh on exports and remittances.
- Geopolitical risks: Regional tensions remain a downside risk for sentiment and trade.
- Structural trends: Digitalization and e-commerce penetration may cushion some retail categories.
Policy pulse
With inflation sticky and growth soft, the NBRNM is likely to maintain a cautious stance. Fiscal space is limited, so any upside surprise would likely need to come from external or structural factors.
Market lens
Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to retail sales and consumer data. The ALK stock, a major retailer, and the BTCUSDT crypto pair, which has shown increased correlation with risk sentiment in the region, are both worth monitoring for spillover effects.
Closing Thoughts
December 2025’s retail sales print for North Macedonia confirms a marked slowdown in consumer momentum, with growth at 1.2% YoY—well below both expectations and the prior month. The data highlight the fragility of the recovery as inflation, tight policy, and weak confidence weigh on spending. While a rebound is possible if inflation moderates, risks are skewed to the downside for Q1 2026. Policymakers and investors will be watching upcoming data closely for signs of stabilization or further weakness.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY
Retail sales data in North Macedonia have a direct impact on domestic equities, the MKD currency, and select regional assets. Stocks like ALK (retail sector) and the MKBR index are sensitive to consumer trends. The MKDEUR forex pair reflects macro sentiment, while crypto pairs such as BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT can react to shifts in risk appetite. These assets are likely to see volatility as investors reassess North Macedonia’s growth outlook.
- ALK – Retail sector stock, highly correlated with domestic consumption trends.
- MKBR – Broad equity index, tracks overall economic sentiment.
- MKDEUR – Currency pair, sensitive to macro data surprises.
- BTCUSDT – Crypto pair, increasingly correlated with regional risk sentiment.
- ETHUSDT – Crypto pair, tracks broader risk-on/risk-off moves.
| Year | Retail Sales YoY (%) | MKBR Index YoY (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -4.1 | -7.5 |
| 2021 | 2.3 | 6.2 |
| 2022 | 3.5 | 8.1 |
| 2023 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
| 2024 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Since 2020, the MKBR index has moved broadly in line with retail sales YoY, with both metrics peaking in 2022 and softening since. The close relationship underscores the importance of consumer data for equity market performance.
FAQ: North Macedonia Retail Sales YoY: December 2025 Print Signals Consumer Slowdown
- What does the December 2025 retail sales YoY figure mean for North Macedonia’s economy?
- The 1.2% YoY growth signals a slowdown in consumer spending, raising concerns about GDP momentum in early 2026.
- How does this result compare to previous months and the 12-month average?
- December’s print is below November’s 2.3% and only slightly above the 12-month average of 0.9%, indicating a weakening trend.
- Which assets are most likely to react to this data?
- Domestic stocks, the MKD currency, and regional crypto pairs such as BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT tend to move in response to retail sales surprises.
Bottom line: North Macedonia’s December 2025 retail sales print highlights mounting headwinds for consumer demand, with risks skewed to the downside as the new year begins.
Updated 1/31/26
- Sigmanomics database, North Macedonia Retail Sales YoY, January 2026 release.
- National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, policy statements and inflation targets.
- Sigmanomics market data, MKBR index, MKDEUR, ALK, BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, 2020–2026.
December’s 1.2% YoY retail sales growth is down from November’s 2.3% and sits just above the 12-month average of 0.9%. The trend since June 2025 has been volatile: after a 2.8% rebound in June, sales dipped into negative territory in October (-0.2%), surged in November (3.0%), and have now slowed sharply.
Compared to earlier months, December’s print is the second-weakest since February 2025, when sales contracted by 0.2%. The year-on-year comparison also looks soft: December 2024 saw a stronger base, so the current reading signals a loss of consumer momentum heading into 2026.