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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MacaoMacao Balance of Trade fell to -11.8M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Macao Balance of Trade fell to -11.8M in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.2M from March's -11.6M reading. The reading matched the -12M consensus. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -10.75M, vs -10.8M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 31 months.
Latest Release
-11.8
Actual
-12
Consensus
-11.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.91 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -11.85
Actual: -11.8
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Macao) was reported at -11.80 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -12.00 million by 0.20 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -11.60 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -9.98 million, ranging from -11.80 million to -8.60 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -11.13 million, down from the prior three at -10.20 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.02 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.59 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -10.37 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.91 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 26, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - MO
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About Balance of Trade — Macao
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -11.8 M, consensus -12 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -11.6 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -9.9 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.