Mexico’s Aggregate Demand YoY for September 2025 surprised positively at 0.30%, beating the -0.80% estimate and improving from -0.20% previously. This 0.50 percentage point rebound signals a tentative expansion after recent contraction, though demand remains subdued compared to the 12-month average of 2.30%. Looking ahead, cautious monetary tightening and external risks suggest gradual growth, with markets reacting favorably to signs of stabilization. Updated 9/19/25
Aggregate Demand Yoy - MX
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Listen to: Mexico Aggregate Demand YoY
Mexico's Aggregate Demand YoY: September 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Mexico’s Aggregate Demand YoY surprised positively in September 2025, rebounding to 0.30% from a prior -0.20%. This report reviews the latest data from the Sigmanomics database, compares it with historical trends, and assesses implications for Mexico’s macroeconomic trajectory amid evolving monetary, fiscal, and external conditions.
The September 2025 Aggregate Demand YoY reading for Mexico came in at 0.30%, beating the consensus estimate of -0.80% and improving from the previous -0.20%. This marks a tentative recovery after a brief contraction in June 2025. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, signals a modest rebound in domestic demand amid mixed global and domestic headwinds.
Drivers this month
Consumer spending showed resilience, supported by stable employment and wage growth.
Investment demand stabilized, reflecting cautious business confidence amid global uncertainties.
Government expenditure remained steady, cushioning demand amid tighter fiscal conditions.
Policy pulse
The reading remains below the 12-month average of approximately 2.30%, indicating subdued demand relative to recent years. The Bank of Mexico’s ongoing monetary tightening to combat inflation continues to weigh on credit growth and consumption.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Mexican peso (MXN) appreciated modestly by 0.20% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved sentiment on domestic demand strength. Short-term yields on MX government bonds edged lower, signaling reduced risk premia.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside aggregate demand reveals a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture. Inflation remains elevated but has shown signs of moderation, with the latest CPI YoY at 4.50%, down from a peak above 7% in early 2024. Unemployment holds steady near 3.70%, supporting consumer spending.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Mexico has maintained its policy rate at 11.25%, reflecting a commitment to tame inflation without derailing growth. Credit growth remains subdued, with commercial lending expanding only 1.10% YoY, constraining investment and consumption.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal discipline persists, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 0.50% of GDP in 2025. Public investment has been prioritized in infrastructure, but overall spending growth is capped, limiting fiscal stimulus potential.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Mexico faces ongoing risks from US trade policy shifts and global supply chain disruptions. The recent US-China tensions and commodity price volatility add uncertainty, though Mexico’s diversified export base provides some insulation.
The September 2025 print of 0.30% contrasts with June’s -0.20% and the 12-month average of 2.30%, marking a modest but meaningful turnaround. This follows a downward trend from mid-2023, when aggregate demand peaked at 5.40% YoY in June 2023.
This rebound suggests tentative stabilization after a period of contraction and deceleration driven by tighter monetary policy and external headwinds.
Historically, aggregate demand in Mexico has fluctuated between strong expansions above 4% in 2023 and contractions in early 2025. The current figure is the first positive reading since the slight dip in June 2025, signaling potential bottoming out.
What This Chart Tells Us: Aggregate demand is trending upward after a two-quarter decline, indicating resilience in domestic consumption and investment. However, the pace remains well below historical highs, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MXN/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.20%, while 2-year Mexican government bond yields fell 5 basis points, reflecting improved investor confidence in Mexico’s growth outlook.
Looking ahead, Mexico’s aggregate demand trajectory will hinge on several key factors. The Bank of Mexico’s monetary stance, fiscal policy flexibility, and external environment will shape growth prospects.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Inflation continues to moderate, allowing a pause or cut in policy rates by early 2026.
Fiscal stimulus targets infrastructure and social programs, boosting domestic demand.
Global trade conditions improve, lifting exports and investment.
Aggregate demand accelerates to 2.50-3.00% YoY by mid-2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Monetary policy remains restrictive but stable, keeping inflation near target.
Fiscal policy remains prudent with moderate spending growth.
External risks persist but do not worsen significantly.
Aggregate demand grows modestly around 1.00-1.50% YoY through 2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation surprises on the upside, forcing further rate hikes.
Fiscal constraints tighten amid political pressures.
Global shocks disrupt trade and investment flows.
Aggregate demand contracts or stagnates below 0% YoY.
Mexico’s September 2025 Aggregate Demand YoY reading signals a tentative recovery after recent softness. While the positive surprise is encouraging, the broader macroeconomic environment remains challenging. Monetary policy tightening, fiscal prudence, and external uncertainties will continue to shape demand dynamics. Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, credit conditions, and geopolitical developments closely.
Overall, the data suggests cautious optimism but underscores the need for balanced policy to support sustainable growth without reigniting inflationary pressures.
Key Markets Likely to React to Aggregate Demand YoY
Mexico’s aggregate demand data influences several key markets, including equities, fixed income, and currency pairs. These markets historically track domestic demand shifts due to their sensitivity to growth and inflation expectations.
MEXBOL: Mexico’s main stock index, highly correlated with domestic economic activity.
USDMXN: The USD/MXN currency pair reacts to shifts in growth and monetary policy expectations.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment, which can be influenced by emerging market demand data.
AMXL.MX: América Móvil, a major Mexican telecom stock sensitive to consumer spending trends.
EURMXN: Euro to Mexican peso exchange rate, impacted by relative economic performance and capital flows.
Insight: Aggregate Demand vs. MEXBOL Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Mexico’s aggregate demand YoY and the MEXBOL index have shown a positive correlation. Periods of strong demand growth, such as mid-2023’s 5.40% peak, coincided with MEXBOL rallies above 50,000 points. Conversely, demand contractions in early 2025 aligned with market pullbacks. This relationship underscores the importance of domestic demand as a driver of equity market performance in Mexico.
FAQ
What is Mexico’s Aggregate Demand YoY?
Mexico’s Aggregate Demand YoY measures the year-over-year percentage change in total domestic demand, including consumption, investment, and government spending.
Why does Aggregate Demand matter for Mexico’s economy?
Aggregate Demand reflects overall economic activity and growth potential. It influences inflation, employment, and policy decisions in Mexico.
How does the Aggregate Demand YoY affect the MXN currency?
Stronger aggregate demand typically supports the MXN by signaling economic strength, attracting investment, and influencing central bank policy.
Takeaway: Mexico’s positive rebound in aggregate demand YoY signals resilience amid tightening policies and external risks, but growth remains modest and uncertain.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - MX Events
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.3
48.5
48
47.45
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.47
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
51.9
53.1
53
52.87
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.8
-1
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-833.94
-830.08
-870
-909.54
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.868
-0.072
-0.5
-1.35
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.5
10.75
10.5
10.46
Medium
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
-0.03
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
5.16
4.73
4.75
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.95
3.98
3.97
3.95
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.1
0.23
0.21
Low
Monday, September 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.6
0
0.4
0.45
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
3.8
-0.6
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.6
-3.1
-0.5
-1.42
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.7
-0.5
0.3
0.20
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.1
2.7
1.2
1.85
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
-0.6
1.8
1.4
1.17
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
-0.4
1.2
1.6
1.20
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
2.7
3.3
2.9
3.65
Low
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.1
-0.7
1.1
1.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.52
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.05
4.01
4.01
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.6
47.1
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.32
0.23
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.01
1.05
0.09
0.11
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.99
5.57
5.09
5.10
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
1.7
-2.7
-2.5
-3.70
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
8.3
2.7
1.9
2.72
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1
1.3
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
-1.3
6
3
3.03
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.92
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
48.5
49.6
49.5
48.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.2
53
52.8
52.67
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
227
226
228
228.00
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-830.08
-693.24
-750
-789.54
Low
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.072
-1.037
-1.35
-2.20
Medium
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
3639
-21374
-1760
436.50
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.98
4.02
4.06
4.04
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.1
1.5
2.2
2.22
Medium
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-0.6
1.6
0.9
1.02
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.03
0.71
0.12
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.18
0.19
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.16
5.61
5.31
5.33
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-3.9
0.3
-1.7
-2.62
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
0
0.2
0.10
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.9
47.4
47
47.43
Medium
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
1.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.32
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.75
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.32
0.22
0.29
0.29
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.05
4.13
4.02
4.02
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
1.05
0.38
1.02
1.03
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
5.57
4.98
5.57
5.58
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
-1.6
1.5
1.1
-0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
2.7
3.8
2
2.82
Low
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-693.24
-525.47
-500
-539.54
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6
18.3
8.4
8.43
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.6
51.1
51.2
50.65
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
52.9
52.9
53
52.87
Medium
10:45
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
226
223
225
225.00
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.2
1.6
2
2.02
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-1.037
1.991
1
0.15
Medium
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.02
4.17
4.02
4.00
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.61
4.78
5.27
5.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.21
0.39
0.41
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.18
0.17
0.19
0.17
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.6
5.4
1.4
1.52
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
3.2
3.5
2.58
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
1
5.1
1.2
1.23
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.7
-0.4
0.4
0.42
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.5
46.9
46
46.43
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.17
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.13
4.21
4.15
4.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.98
4.69
4.84
4.85
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
3.8
4.9
6
6.82
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.38
-0.19
0.24
0.26
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
3.3
13
12
10.80
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
223
221
223
223.00
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.9
0.8
1.2
1.25
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
18.1
3
17.7
17.73
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.1
51.2
51.5
50.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53
53.7
53.4
53.27
Medium
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-525.47
-334.14
-310
-349.54
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.72
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
1.991
-3.746
-2.04
-2.89
Medium
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.78
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
-0.21
0.14
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.15
0.18
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.17
4.31
4.19
4.17
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
5.4
-1.3
3.8
3.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.25
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0
-0.3
-0.40
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
-1.7
1.5
0.58
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0.5
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
5.1
-3
4.4
4.43
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.21
4.37
4.31
4.31
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.65
4.79
4.80
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.21
0.1
0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.19
0.2
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
13
14.4
12
10.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
4.9
21.7
5
5.82
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.7
47.2
47
47.43
Medium
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
3
12.5
11.8
11.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.2
51
50.6
50.05
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.7
54.1
54
53.87
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
221
220
219
219.00
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-334.14
-437.2
-345.2
-384.74
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.62
Medium
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
-12582
11817
-13700
-11503.50
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-3.746
2.098
-0.8
-1.65
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.3
1.5
0.8
0.85
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.13
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
1.6
1.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.21
0.09
-0.22
-0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.31
4.39
4.31
4.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.63
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-1.3
4.5
1.1
1.22
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-1.7
3
0
-0.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.6
0.62
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-3
3.3
-1.2
-1.17
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.29
0.19
0.21
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.37
4.55
4.4
4.40
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.44
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.65
4.42
4.63
4.64
Medium
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
21.7
-12.8
-8
-7.18
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.3
47.2
47.63
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
14.4
4.9
5
3.80
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
12.5
15.3
12.1
12.13
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
2.1
2.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
-0.02
Medium
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.42
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
2.098
-0.585
0.7
-0.15
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.48
4.48
4.50
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.27
-0.03
-0.01
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.16
0.33
0.16
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.39
4.69
4.39
4.37
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
4.4
1.9
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
1.4
-0.9
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.6
0.3
0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3
-0.8
-1
-1.92
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
3.3
2.7
3.5
3.53
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.29
0.09
0.36
0.38
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.55
4.64
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.42
4.4
4.5
4.51
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.49
0.51
0.51
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
-12.8
7.8
318
318.82
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
4.9
23.5
272
270.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.2
43
43.43
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
220
222
225
225.00
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.1
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
15.3
13.4
11.2
11.23
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.3
53
52.87
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.2
52.3
52.5
51.95
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:30
MX
Fiscal Balance
-399.7
-159.14
-80
-119.54
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.5
2.9
2.8
2.82
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.585
-4.315
-0.2
-1.05
Medium
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.27
-0.1
0.28
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.48
4.45
4.45
4.47
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2
1.1
2.6
2.72
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.33
0.24
0.26
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.63
4.62
4.60
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11.25
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.9
0.4
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-0.2
1.2
0.28
Low
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
0.9
1.2
-0.2
-0.42
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
5.1
4.3
1.9
2.65
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
0.3
0
-0.1
-0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.6
2.7
0.9
1.55
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.9
0
2.1
2.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
-0.7
0.4
0.42
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.64
4.76
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.4
0.49
0.49
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.89
0.11
0.13
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.88
4.42
4.43
Medium
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
7.8
9.6
9.9
10.72
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47
47.1
47.5
47.93
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
22.6
6.8
6.6
5.40
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
13.4
19.2
18
18.03
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0
-1.3
0.4
0.45
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-159.14
-1052.62
-650
-689.54
Low
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.3
50.2
49.8
49.25
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
222
214
208
208.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.82
Medium
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.315
4.242
-2.286
-3.14
Medium
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:20
MX
Current Account
11662
908
5000
7196.50
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.1
2.3
0.7
0.82
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0.49
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.24
0.25
0.28
0.26
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.78
4.67
4.65
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.45
4.9
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.5
3.3
2.4
2.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.2
2.7
2.5
1.58
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.2
0.10
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.7
-1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
0
2.9
2
2.03
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11.25
11.25
11.25
11.21
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.76
5.09
4.72
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.89
0.71
0.88
0.90
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.44
0.37
0.37
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.88
4.66
4.88
4.89
Medium
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.1
46.8
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
6.8
16
14
12.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
9.6
-9.9
-2.4
-1.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1.3
1.7
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
19.2
25.5
21.3
21.33
Low
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
214
211
207
207.00
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.2
52
51.4
50.85
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.5
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-1052.62
-762.3
-1000
-1039.54
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.4
3.3
3.1
3.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
4.242
0.63
1.4
0.55
Medium
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.62
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.25
0.46
0.25
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2.3
4.2
3.2
3.32
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
5.19
4.78
4.76
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
4.46
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.52
0.38
0.40
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.28
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.40
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.8
5.6
4.8
4.83
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-1
0.6
0.3
0.32
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
25.5
21.9
22.8
22.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.9
-1.5
0.3
0.35
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:10
MX
Auto Exports YoY
16
21.7
23
21.80
Low
14:10
MX
Auto Production YoY
-9.9
18.1
17.5
18.32
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
4.32
4.55
4.56
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.26
0.5
0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.09
5.3
5.15
5.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.64
0.61
0.63
Medium
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.8
47.3
48
48.43
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Aggregate Demand YoY in Mexico Rises Above Expectations September 2025 Aggregate Demand YoY Shows Modest Recovery Aggregate Demand YoY measures the annual change in total domestic spending, including consumption, investment, and government outlays. For Mexico (MX), September 2025’s report revealed a 0.30% increase, surpassing the expected contraction of -0.80% and improving from June’s -0.20%. This positive shift signals a tentative rebound in Mexico’s domestic demand after recent softness. Consumer spending remained resilient, supported by steady employment and wage growth, while investment stabilized amid cautious business sentiment. The Bank of Mexico’s monetary tightening continues to restrain credit growth, but the improved figure suggests some easing of downward pressure. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for Latin America noted, “This uptick in Aggregate Demand YoY for MX points to early signs of stabilization, though growth remains fragile given external uncertainties.” The Mexican peso responded positively, appreciating slightly on the data release, reflecting improved market confidence in Mexico’s economic outlook.
The September 2025 print of 0.30% contrasts with June’s -0.20% and the 12-month average of 2.30%, marking a modest but meaningful turnaround. This follows a downward trend from mid-2023, when aggregate demand peaked at 5.40% YoY in June 2023.
This rebound suggests tentative stabilization after a period of contraction and deceleration driven by tighter monetary policy and external headwinds.