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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Aggregate Demand YoY climbed to 4.5% in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Mexico Aggregate Demand YoY climbed to 4.5% in October 2025, released March 2026, up 3.4% from September's 1.1% reading. The print exceeded the 1.8% consensus by 2.7%. Aggregate Demand YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Aggregate Demand YoY is now the highest in 27 months.
Latest Release
4.5
Actual
1.8
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: 4.5
Error: -2.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish MXN | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Aggregate Demand YoY (Mexico) was reported at 4.5% in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.8% by 2.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.97%, up from the prior three at 1.33%. In March readings over the past 3 years, Aggregate Demand YoY has averaged 3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN). A secondary relationship exists with WTI Crude, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Aggregate Demand YoY - MX
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About Aggregate Demand YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Aggregate Demand YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in total demand for goods and services in an economy over a one-year period. It takes into account consumer spending, business investments, government spending, and net exports to provide a comprehensive view of the overall demand for goods and services. This indicator is often used by economists and policymakers to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions about monetary and fiscal policies. A positive change in Aggregate Demand YoY indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 4.5 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 1.1 %. Before that (Apr 2025): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.