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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Auto Production YoY fell to -15.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Auto Production YoY fell to -15.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 13.7% from August's -1.4% reading. The reading missed the 3.49% consensus by 18.59%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -1.32%. Over the past 3 months, Auto Production YoY averaged -1.8%, vs -1.16% in the prior 3-month window. Auto Production YoY is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-15.1
Actual
3.49
Consensus
-1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.56 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.29
Actual: -15.1
Error: +18.39
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Auto Production YoY (Mexico) was reported at -15.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.49% by 18.59%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.66%, ranging from -15.1% to 8.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.23%, down from the prior three at -1.16%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.82%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 5.41%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Auto Production YoY has averaged -3.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.56%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Auto Production YoY - MX
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About Auto Production YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Auto Production YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the production of automobiles. It provides insight into the growth or decline of the automotive industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, employment, and trade. A positive YoY change in auto production indicates a strong and growing industry, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -15.1 %, consensus 3.49 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -1.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.40) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |