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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Auto Production YoY climbed to -1.89% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Auto Production YoY climbed to -1.89% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 1.81% from May's -3.7% reading. The print exceeded the -7.0% consensus by 5.11%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.43%. Over the past 3 months, Auto Production YoY averaged 0.3%, vs 1.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 28th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.89
Actual
-7
Consensus
-3.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.56 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -7.15
Actual: -1.89
Error: -5.26
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Auto Production YoY (Mexico) was reported at -1.89% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -7% by 5.11%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.24%, ranging from -8.4% to 8.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.16%, down from the prior three at 1.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.51%) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.73%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Auto Production YoY has averaged 2.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.56%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Auto Production YoY - MX
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About Auto Production YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Auto Production YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the production of automobiles. It provides insight into the growth or decline of the automotive industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, employment, and trade. A positive YoY change in auto production indicates a strong and growing industry, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -1.89 %, consensus -7 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -3.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |