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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Auto Production YoY climbed to -1.4% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Mexico Auto Production YoY climbed to -1.4% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.8% from July's -2.2% reading. The print exceeded the -5.1% consensus by 3.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -1.01%. Over the past 3 months, Auto Production YoY averaged -2.05%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.4
Actual
-5.1
Consensus
-2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.56 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -4.95
Actual: -1.4
Error: -3.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Auto Production YoY (Mexico) was reported at -1.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -5.1% by 3.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.76%, ranging from -8.4% to 8.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.83%, down from the prior three at -1.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.34%) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.64%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Auto Production YoY has averaged 2.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.56%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24) and Balance of Trade (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Auto Production YoY - MX
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About Auto Production YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Auto Production YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the production of automobiles. It provides insight into the growth or decline of the automotive industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, employment, and trade. A positive YoY change in auto production indicates a strong and growing industry, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1.4 %, consensus -5.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -2.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -1.89 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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