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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Business Confidence climbed to 48.1% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Mexico Business Confidence climbed to 48.1% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from July's 48.0% reading. The reading matched the 47.7% consensus. Business Confidence has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Business Confidence is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
48.1
Actual
47.7
Consensus
48
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 48.3
Actual: 48.1
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Mexico) was reported at 48.1% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 47.7% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 48%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.4%, ranging from 47.5% to 49.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 47.87%, down from the prior three at 48.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.63%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.26%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 50.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.31%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24) and Balance of Trade (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Confidence - MX
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About Business Confidence — Mexico
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 48.1 %, consensus 47.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 48 %. Before that (May 2026): 47.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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