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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Business Confidence fell to 47.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Mexico Business Confidence fell to 47.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.4% from April's 47.9% reading. The reading matched the 48.1% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 2.0%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 47.85%, vs 48.47% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
47.5
Actual
48.1
Consensus
47.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 48.9
Actual: 47.5
Error: +1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Mexico) was reported at 47.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 48.1% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 47.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.67%, ranging from 47.5% to 49.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 47.8%, down from the prior three at 48.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.44%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 50.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Business Confidence - MX
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About Business Confidence — Mexico
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 47.5 %, consensus 48.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 47.9 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 47.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.