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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Business Confidence held to 48.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Business Confidence held to 48.0% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched the 48.2% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.7%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 48.05%, vs 47.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
48
Actual
48.2
Consensus
48
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 48.6
Actual: 48
Error: +0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Mexico) was reported at 48% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 48.2% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.23%, ranging from 47.5% to 49.1% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 48.03%, up from the prior three at 47.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.21%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 49.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Nov 4) and Interest Rate Decision (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - MX
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About Business Confidence — Mexico
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 48 %, consensus 48.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 48.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 48 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |