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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.22% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Mexico Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.22% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.09% from April's 0.31% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.24% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Core Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.35%, vs 0.49% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.22
Actual
0.24
Consensus
0.31
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.24
Actual: 0.22
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (Mexico) was reported at 0.22% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.24% by 0.02%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.31%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.35%, ranging from 0.19% to 0.6% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.31%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.13%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.13%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.02%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - MX
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.22 %, consensus 0.24 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.31 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.38 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.