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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.24% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.24% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.02% from May's 0.22% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.31% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.34%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.27%, vs 0.48% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 24th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.24
Actual
0.31
Consensus
0.22
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.24
Error: +0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (Mexico) was reported at 0.24% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.31% by 0.07%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.22%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from 0.19% to 0.6% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.31%, down from the prior three at 0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.13%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.13%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.28%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - MX
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.24 %, consensus 0.31 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.22 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.31 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |