Mexico Core Inflation Rate MoM: February 2026 Update
Mexico's core inflation rate increased by 0.46% month-over-month in February 2026, according to official data released March 9. This reading marks a slowdown from January's 0.60% pace and comes in below the market estimate of 0.50%[1].
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Processed foods: +0.14pp
- Services: +0.18pp
- Non-energy goods: +0.09pp
- Energy: -0.03pp
Policy pulse
The 0.46% monthly rise keeps core inflation above Banxico's 3% annual target, though the pace has moderated for a second consecutive month. The central bank continues to monitor underlying price pressures, especially in services.Market lens
Peso-denominated assets saw muted reaction as the print undershot consensus. Investors interpreted the softer reading as a sign that underlying inflationary momentum is gradually easing, supporting the case for a steady policy stance in the near term.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February's 0.46% print follows January's 0.60% and December's 0.41%. The 12-month average stands at 0.32%. Over the past six months, the core rate ranged from a low of 0.19% (December) to a high of 0.60% (January).Comparative snapshot
The latest figure is 0.04 percentage points below the market estimate and 0.14 points lower than the previous month. Compared to August 2025's 0.31% and October's 0.33%, the current reading remains elevated but shows a decelerating trend from the January spike.Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from INEGI and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. The core inflation index excludes volatile food and energy prices, focusing on underlying trends in goods and services.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish (20–30%): Core inflation slows further, approaching 0.3% MoM by mid-year as services and processed foods moderate.
- Base (50–60%): The rate stabilizes near 0.4–0.5% MoM, reflecting persistent but contained pressures in core categories.
- Bearish (15–25%): Renewed supply shocks or wage gains push monthly core inflation back above 0.6%.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include wage-driven service inflation and global commodity volatility. Downside risks stem from weaker domestic demand and a stronger peso. The balance of risks keeps Banxico cautious, with a focus on services inflation.Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Markets largely shrugged off the softer core inflation print. The peso remained stable, and local bond yields saw limited movement. Investors appear to be awaiting clearer signals on the durability of the recent disinflation trend before repositioning.Looking ahead
The February data reinforce a gradual, uneven path lower for Mexico's core inflation. While the pace has slowed from January's high, underlying pressures—especially in services—remain a key watchpoint for policymakers and markets alike.Key Markets Reacting to Core Inflation Rate MoM
Mexico's core inflation data can move a range of asset classes, from equities and bonds to currencies. Below are select symbols from verified Sigmanomics listings, each with a brief note on their typical sensitivity to inflation surprises.
- AAPL: U.S. tech stocks often see indirect effects via global risk sentiment and EM flows.
- USDMXN: The peso's exchange rate is highly sensitive to Mexican inflation trends and Banxico policy expectations.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin sometimes reacts to EM inflation data as a perceived hedge, though correlations are inconsistent.
| Year | Core Inflation MoM Avg | USDMXN Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.27% | Peso weakened on inflation spikes |
| 2021 | 0.34% | Peso stabilized as inflation moderated |
| 2022 | 0.38% | Peso volatility increased with inflation surges |
| 2023 | 0.33% | Peso strengthened as inflation cooled |
| 2024 | 0.29% | Peso broadly stable |
| 2025 | 0.32% | Peso tracked inflation swings closely |
FAQ
- What is the latest reading for Mexico's Core Inflation Rate MoM?
- February 2026's core inflation rate rose 0.46% month-over-month, down from January's 0.60%.
- How does this month's figure compare to recent trends?
- The February print is below both the prior month and the 12-month average, signaling a modest easing in underlying inflation.
- Why is the Core Inflation Rate MoM important for markets?
- It tracks underlying price pressures, guiding Banxico policy and influencing the peso, local bonds, and global investor sentiment.
Mexico's core inflation rate continues to moderate, but underlying pressures remain a key focus for policymakers and markets.
Updated 3/9/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), Sigmanomics Economic Database, official release 3/9/26.








