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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.2% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.04% from August's 0.16% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.24% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.31%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.2%, vs 0.26% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.24
Consensus
0.16
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.23
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (Mexico) was reported at 0.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.24% by 0.04%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.16%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.3%, ranging from 0.16% to 0.6% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.2%, down from the prior three at 0.31%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.13%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - MX
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.24 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.16 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.23 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |