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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.19% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Mexico Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.19% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.07% from April's 4.26% reading. The reading matched expectations. Core Inflation Rate YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 4.36%, vs 4.45% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate YoY is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
4.19
Actual
4.2
Consensus
4.26
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.01 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.2
Actual: 4.19
Error: +0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 4.19% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.2% by 0.01%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.26%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.33%, ranging from 4.19% to 4.52% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.4%, up from the prior three at 4.35%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.12%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 4.15%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.01%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - MX
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.19 %, consensus 4.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.26 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.45 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.