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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico CPI fell to -0.16% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico CPI fell to -0.16% in May 2026, down 0.27% from April's 0.11% reading. The print came in cooler than the -0.15% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. CPI has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 0.95%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. CPI is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-0.16
Actual
-0.15
Consensus
0.11
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.08
Actual: -0.16
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (Mexico) was reported at -0.16% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.15% by 0.01%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.11%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.85%, ranging from -0.16% to 4.32% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.49%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.4%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.77%). In May readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 0.11%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI - MX
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About CPI — Mexico
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.16 %, consensus -0.15 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.11 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.22 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.60) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.