Mexico CPI: February Inflation Cools Further, Undershoots Forecast
Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) for February 2026 registered a 0.46% month-over-month increase, down from January's 0.60% pace and below the consensus estimate of 0.47%[1]. The latest print signals a continued moderation in price pressures, with headline inflation now running below the 12-month average. The data, released March 9, 2026, reflects persistent disinflation across core categories.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Core goods: +0.18pp
- Services: +0.14pp
- Energy: +0.07pp
- Food: +0.05pp
- Fruits & vegetables: +0.02pp
Policy Pulse
February's 0.46% MoM CPI print remains below the Bank of Mexico's 3% YoY target corridor, with annualized inflation decelerating from late 2025 levels. The central bank has signaled vigilance but refrained from immediate policy shifts.
Market Lens
Peso and bond yields edged lower after the release. The softer-than-expected inflation reading prompted a modest rally in local debt, as investors recalibrated expectations for future monetary tightening. Market participants noted the broad-based nature of the disinflation, particularly in core categories.
Foundational Indicators
Recent CPI Prints
- February 2026: 0.46% MoM
- January 2026: 0.60% MoM
- December 2025: 0.66% MoM
- November 2025: 0.47% MoM
- October 2025: 0.23% MoM
- September 2025: 0.18% MoM
Historical Comparisons
February's reading is the lowest since November 2025 and marks the second consecutive monthly slowdown. The 12-month average stands at 0.39% MoM, with February's print slightly above this trend. Compared to December's 0.66%, price momentum has cooled by 0.20 percentage points.
Policy Pulse
With inflation easing, the Bank of Mexico's real policy rate remains positive. The central bank's inflation target remains at 3% YoY, with a 1 percentage point tolerance band.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Further deceleration to sub-0.40% MoM in coming months if core goods and energy remain subdued.
- Base (50–60%): Inflation stabilizes near the 0.40–0.50% MoM range, tracking the recent average.
- Bearish (10–20%): Price pressures re-emerge, pushing MoM prints above 0.60% if food or energy shocks materialize.
Risks and Methodology
Upside risks include weather-driven food volatility and external energy shocks. Downside risks stem from weak domestic demand and currency strength. Data is sourced from INEGI and the Sigmanomics database, using official CPI methodology with seasonally adjusted monthly comparisons.
Closing Thoughts
Market Lens
Traders trimmed inflation-hedge positions after the release. The broad-based deceleration in February's CPI print reinforced confidence in the disinflation trend, prompting a shift toward longer-duration assets and a mild appreciation in the peso. Market focus now turns to upcoming core inflation data for confirmation of sustained easing.
Key Markets Reacting to CPI
Mexico's inflation data often reverberates across global markets, influencing equities, currencies, and digital assets. The February CPI print prompted immediate moves in local and international instruments, as traders recalibrated risk and rate expectations. Below are key symbols with direct or indirect exposure to Mexican inflation trends.
- AAPL — Consumer electronics demand in Mexico is sensitive to inflation-driven shifts in household spending.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair reflects global risk sentiment and often reacts to emerging market inflation surprises.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin trading volumes in Mexico have shown correlation with local inflation spikes, as investors seek alternative stores of value.
| Year | CPI MoM (%) | AAPL (YoY %) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.28 | +82 |
| 2022 | 0.42 | +34 |
| 2024 | 0.37 | +48 |
| 2026 | 0.46 | +12 |
Since 2020, periods of higher Mexican CPI have coincided with slower AAPL share appreciation, underscoring the indirect impact of emerging market inflation on global consumer stocks.
FAQ
- What is the latest Mexico CPI reading?
- February 2026 CPI rose 0.46% month-over-month, down from January's 0.60% and below the consensus estimate of 0.47%.
- How does this month's CPI compare to recent trends?
- February's print marks the second consecutive slowdown and is slightly above the 12-month average of 0.39% MoM.
- What does the February CPI mean for Mexico's inflation outlook?
- The data signals a continued disinflationary trend, with risks balanced between external shocks and domestic demand weakness.
Mexico's February CPI print confirms a broad-based cooling in inflation, reinforcing market confidence in the disinflation trend.
Updated 3/9/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics database, INEGI official CPI releases, accessed 3/9/26.
February's 0.46% MoM CPI compares with January's 0.60% and a 12-month average of 0.39%. The latest figure extends a two-month cooling trend, reversing the acceleration seen in December 2025. Since September 2025, monthly inflation has ranged from 0.18% to 0.66%, with February's print landing near the midpoint of this band.
Core goods and services drove most of the deceleration, while energy and food prices contributed modestly. The headline figure undershot market expectations for the first time since October 2025.