Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Current Account fell to -15,878M in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Current Account fell to -15,878M in January 2026, released May 2026, down 23,613M from December's 7,735M reading. The reading missed the -9,379M consensus by 6,499M. Current Account has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Current Account is now the lowest in 97 months.
Latest Release
-15878
Actual
-9379
Consensus
7735
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4,768.25 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -11,228
Actual: -15,878
Error: +4,650
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Mexico) was reported at -15,878.00 million in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -9,379.00 million by 6,499.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 7,735.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2,724.80 million, down from the prior three at -1,694.00 million. In May readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -12,024.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN). A secondary relationship exists with WTI Crude, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4,768.25 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Current Account - MX
Loading chart data...
About Current Account — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -15,878 M, consensus -9,379 M. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.6 M. Before that (Jan 2026): 7,702 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |