Mexico’s current account balance has swung sharply in recent months, reflecting shifts in trade, capital flows, and external conditions. The November 2025 surplus of MXN 2,325 million marks a significant improvement from the August 2025 reading of MXN 206 million and contrasts with the May 2025 deficit of MXN -7,613 million. This volatility underscores Mexico’s sensitivity to global trade dynamics and commodity prices.

Drivers this month

• Strong export growth in manufacturing and energy sectors.
• Improved terms of trade due to rising oil prices.
• Moderation in import demand amid cautious domestic consumption.

Policy pulse

The current account surplus aligns with the central bank’s cautious monetary stance, which aims to balance inflation control with external stability. The Bank of Mexico’s recent rate hikes have tempered domestic demand, indirectly supporting the external balance.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MXN appreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour of the release, reflecting market optimism about external resilience. Short-term yields on MX government bonds edged lower, signaling reduced risk premia.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the current account’s trajectory. Mexico’s GDP growth remains steady at an annualized 2.10%, supported by manufacturing exports and remittances. Inflation has moderated to 3.80% YoY, within the central bank’s target range of 3%. The trade balance has improved, with exports rising 5.20% MoM and imports contracting 1.10% MoM in October 2025.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Mexico’s policy rate stands at 11.25%, unchanged since September 2025. Financial conditions remain tight but stable, with credit growth slowing to 4.50% YoY. The peso’s recent strength supports inflation control by lowering import costs.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline continues, with the government running a primary surplus of 0.80% of GDP in Q3 2025. Public debt remains manageable at 48% of GDP. These factors bolster investor confidence and help sustain external balances.

Historical comparisons highlight the volatility: the February 2025 surplus peaked at MXN 12,601 million, while May 2024 and May 2025 saw deficits of MXN -12,582 million and MXN -7,613 million respectively. These swings reflect Mexico’s exposure to global demand shocks and energy price cycles.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MXN/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.40%, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved market sentiment toward Mexico’s external position.

Looking ahead, Mexico’s current account trajectory will hinge on global demand, commodity prices, and domestic policy. Three scenarios emerge:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global growth accelerates, boosting Mexican exports by 7% YoY.
• Oil prices remain elevated, supporting energy export revenues.
• Fiscal discipline and monetary stability sustain investor confidence.
• Current account surplus expands beyond MXN 3,000 million by Q1 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate global growth with export growth around 3-4% YoY.
• Oil prices stabilize near current levels.
• Monetary policy remains steady, balancing inflation and growth.
• Current account surplus holds near MXN 2,000–2,500 million.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Global slowdown reduces export demand by 2-3% YoY.
• Oil prices fall sharply, compressing energy revenues.
• Domestic consumption rebounds, increasing import demand.
• Current account deficit re-emerges, potentially below MXN -1,000 million.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Mexico’s external balance is structurally influenced by its manufacturing export base, remittance inflows, and energy sector dynamics. Long-term trends suggest gradual diversification of exports and increased integration with US supply chains, which may reduce volatility. However, exposure to commodity cycles and geopolitical risks remains a key vulnerability.

Mexico’s November 2025 current account surplus signals improved external resilience amid a complex global backdrop. The data from the Sigmanomics database highlights the country’s capacity to navigate external shocks through export strength and prudent policy. However, risks from global growth uncertainty and commodity price swings persist. Policymakers should maintain fiscal and monetary discipline while fostering export diversification to sustain this positive momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

The current account data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to external balances. Key symbols to watch include:

• USDMXN – The peso-dollar exchange rate reacts directly to external balance shifts.
• MEXBOL – Mexico’s main equity index, sensitive to export sector performance.
• GMEXICOB.MX – A bond ETF reflecting Mexican sovereign debt sentiment.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s role as a risk-on asset can correlate with emerging market flows.
• EURMXN – Euro-peso pair, reflecting broader currency sentiment.

FAQs

What does Mexico’s current account surplus indicate?

The surplus suggests Mexico is exporting more goods, services, and capital than it imports, strengthening its external position.

How does the current account affect the peso?

A surplus typically supports the peso by increasing demand for MXN in foreign exchange markets.

What are the risks to Mexico’s current account outlook?

Risks include global demand slowdowns, commodity price drops, and domestic policy shifts that increase import demand.

Key takeaway: Mexico’s November 2025 current account surplus signals a robust external position, but vigilance is needed amid global uncertainties.