Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Current Account fell to -15,878M in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Current Account fell to -15,878M in January 2026, released May 2026, down 23,613M from December's 7,735M reading. The reading missed the -9,379M consensus by 6,499M. Current Account has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Current Account is now the lowest in 97 months.
Latest Release
-15878
Actual
-9379
Consensus
7735
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4,768.25 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -11,228
Actual: -15,878
Error: +4,650
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish MXN | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Mexico) was reported at -15,878.00 million in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -9,379.00 million by 6,499.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 7,735.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2,724.80 million, down from the prior three at -1,694.00 million. In May readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -12,024.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN). A secondary relationship exists with WTI Crude, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4,768.25 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Current Account - MX
Loading chart data...
About Current Account — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -15,878 M, consensus -9,379 M. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.6 M. Before that (Jan 2026): 7,702 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.