Mexico’s Economic Activity MoM: January 2026 Rebound Surpasses Forecasts
Mexico’s economic activity staged a notable recovery in January, with the latest MoM reading showing a 0.4% increase. This follows December’s -0.1% contraction and comes in above the 0.2% consensus estimate. The result highlights a return to growth after a turbulent end to 2025, with markets and policymakers closely watching the trend for signs of sustained momentum.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output: +0.15pp
- Services sector: +0.12pp
- Construction: +0.09pp
Policy pulse
The 0.4% MoM increase in January stands above the central bank’s baseline scenario for early 2026, which had anticipated a more modest rebound. Banxico’s recent communications emphasized vigilance on growth volatility, but the latest data provides some relief after December’s dip.
Market lens
MXN strengthened modestly against the USD on the release. Investors interpreted the print as a sign of underlying resilience, with local equities and sovereign bonds both posting small gains in the immediate aftermath. The outperformance versus consensus has tempered near-term recession concerns, though volatility remains elevated.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: +0.4%
- December 2025: -0.1%
- November 2025: -0.6%
- October 2025: +0.6%
- September 2025: -0.9%
- August 2025: +0.2%
Trend signals
January’s result is the second-strongest since July 2025, trailing only December’s 1% surge. The six-month average now stands at approximately 0.08%, reflecting the choppy pattern of late 2025. The latest print breaks a two-month streak of negative or flat growth, restoring some confidence in the underlying expansion.
Policy pulse
With growth back in positive territory, Banxico’s policy stance remains data-dependent. The central bank has reiterated its commitment to balancing inflation and growth risks, and the January data supports a steady approach for now.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Sustained MoM gains above 0.3% (30% probability)
- Base: Growth moderates to 0.1–0.2% MoM (55% probability)
- Bearish: Return to negative territory (15% probability)
Upside and downside risks
Upside risks include continued strength in manufacturing exports and resilient domestic demand. Downside risks stem from global growth headwinds and potential policy tightening. The balance of risks remains tilted toward moderate expansion, but volatility in recent prints tempers confidence in a sustained uptrend.
Methodology and source
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and official INEGI releases, calculated as the month-over-month percentage change in Mexico’s Economic Activity Index. The indicator captures aggregate output across key sectors, providing a timely gauge of short-term economic momentum.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Financial markets welcomed the upside surprise, but caution lingers given recent volatility. The January print has eased immediate concerns about a downturn, yet the uneven trajectory over the past six months keeps investors on alert for further swings. Market participants will be watching upcoming data closely to confirm whether the rebound marks the start of a more durable recovery.Key Markets Reacting to Economic Activity MoM
Mexico’s economic activity data often moves both local and global markets. The January rebound prompted reactions across equities, currencies, and crypto assets. Below are select symbols with direct or indirect exposure to Mexican macro trends, each verified as active on Sigmanomics.
- AAPL — Apple’s supply chain and sales in Mexico make it sensitive to local economic momentum.
- USDMXN — The peso’s value responds directly to shifts in Mexican economic activity.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin trading volumes in Mexico often spike on macroeconomic surprises.
| Month | Economic Activity MoM (%) | USDMXN Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 0.4 | -0.7 |
| Dec 2025 | -0.1 | +0.3 |
| Oct 2025 | 0.6 | -1.1 |
| Sep 2025 | -0.9 | +1.5 |
| Aug 2025 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Jul 2025 | 0.5 | -0.4 |
Insight: Since 2020, positive MoM prints in Mexico’s economic activity have generally coincided with peso appreciation against the USD, as reflected in the USDMXN pair. The relationship is strongest following sharp swings in the indicator, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to domestic macro data.
FAQ
- What does Mexico’s January 2026 Economic Activity MoM reading indicate?
- The 0.4% MoM increase signals a return to growth after December’s contraction, outpacing consensus and restoring some market confidence.
- How does this result compare to recent months?
- January’s print is the second-strongest in six months, reversing two months of negative or flat growth and exceeding the six-month average.
- Why is Economic Activity MoM important for investors?
- It provides a timely gauge of Mexico’s short-term economic momentum, influencing currency, equity, and fixed income markets.
Mexico’s economic activity rebound in January 2026 has eased near-term concerns and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the months ahead.
Updated 2/23/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics Economic Activity MoM Database, accessed 2/23/26.
- [2] INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía), official economic activity releases, Jan 2026.
January’s 0.4% MoM gain reversed December’s -0.1% contraction and outpaced the 12-month average of 0.13%. The latest figure is the highest since October’s 0.6% and marks a clear shift from the negative readings seen in late 2025. Volatility remains a defining feature, with swings from -0.9% in September to +1% in December, underscoring the economy’s sensitivity to both domestic and external shocks.
Compared to the prior six months, January’s print stands out as a return to above-trend growth. The data series shows three negative months out of the last six, but the current reading signals a possible stabilization. The improvement is broad-based, with manufacturing and services both contributing positively.