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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Economic Activity MoM fell to -0.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Economic Activity MoM fell to -0.3% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.7% from April's 1.4% reading. The print exceeded the -0.4% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.17%. Over the past 3 months, Economic Activity MoM averaged 0.8%, vs -0.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.05
Actual: -0.3
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Economic Activity MoM (Mexico) was reported at -0.3% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.4% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.11%, ranging from -0.9% to 1.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.71%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.55%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Economic Activity MoM has averaged 0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.42%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Economic Activity MoM - MX
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About Economic Activity MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
Economic Activity MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in economic activity from one month to the next. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and direction of the economy, allowing businesses and investors to make informed decisions. By tracking the month-over-month changes in economic activity, this indicator helps to identify trends and potential shifts in the economy, making it a crucial tool for monitoring and forecasting economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |