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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Economic Activity MoM climbed to 0.6% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Economic Activity MoM climbed to 0.6% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from July's 0.5% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.14%. Over the past 3 months, Economic Activity MoM averaged 0.35%, vs 0.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.38
Actual: 0.6
Error: -0.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Activity MoM (Mexico) was reported at 0.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.25%, ranging from -0.9% to 1.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.66%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.6%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Economic Activity MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Economic Activity MoM - MX
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About Economic Activity MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
Economic Activity MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in economic activity from one month to the next. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and direction of the economy, allowing businesses and investors to make informed decisions. By tracking the month-over-month changes in economic activity, this indicator helps to identify trends and potential shifts in the economy, making it a crucial tool for monitoring and forecasting economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.64) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |