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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Fiscal Balance fell to -559.1M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Mexico Fiscal Balance fell to -559.1M in June 2026, released August 2026, down 168.1M from May's -391M reading. The reading missed the -430M consensus by 129.1M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -366.8M. Over the past 3 months, Fiscal Balance averaged -198.86M, vs -65.76M in the prior 3-month window. Fiscal Balance is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-559.1
Actual
-430
Consensus
-391
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±136.61 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -585.15
Actual: -559.1
Error: -26.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fiscal Balance (Mexico) was reported at -559.10 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -430.00 million by 129.10 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -391.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -414.60 million, ranging from -1,083.10 million to -19.30 million across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -372.85 million, down from the prior three at -42.15 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 335.51 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 494.47 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Fiscal Balance has averaged -531.37 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/MXN, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 136.61 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Fiscal Balance - MX
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About Fiscal Balance — Mexico
DEFINITION
Fiscal balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure in a given period. It provides insight into the financial health of a country and its ability to manage its budget and debt. A positive fiscal balance indicates that a government's revenue exceeds its spending, while a negative balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is crucial in assessing a government's fiscal responsibility and its impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -559.1 M, consensus -430 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -168.1 M. Before that (May 2026): -391.3 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | -0.7 | 1.1 | 1.30 | Low |
| 12:00 | MX | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.17 | Low |