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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Fiscal Balance fell to -559.1M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Mexico Fiscal Balance fell to -559.1M in June 2026, released August 2026, down 168.1M from May's -391M reading. The reading missed the -430M consensus by 129.1M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -366.8M. Over the past 3 months, Fiscal Balance averaged -198.86M, vs -65.76M in the prior 3-month window. Fiscal Balance is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-559.1
Actual
-430
Consensus
-391
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±136.61 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -585.15
Actual: -559.1
Error: -26.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fiscal Balance (Mexico) was reported at -731.70 billion in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -559.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -452.12 billion, ranging from -1,083.10 billion to -19.30 billion across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -486.31 billion, down from the prior three at -166.15 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 344.37 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 485.27 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Fiscal Balance has averaged -523.65 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/MXN, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 136.61 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24) and Balance of Trade (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Fiscal Balance - MX
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About Fiscal Balance — Mexico
DEFINITION
Fiscal balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure in a given period. It provides insight into the financial health of a country and its ability to manage its budget and debt. A positive fiscal balance indicates that a government's revenue exceeds its spending, while a negative balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is crucial in assessing a government's fiscal responsibility and its impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -171.5 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -559.1 M. Before that (Jun 2026): -168.1 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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