Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Fiscal Balance fell to -391.3M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Mexico Fiscal Balance fell to -391.3M in May 2026, released June 2026, down 174.2M from April's -217.1M reading. The reading missed the -81M consensus by 310.3M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -428.29M. Over the past 3 months, Fiscal Balance averaged -85.78M, vs -130.77M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-391.3
Actual
-81
Consensus
-217.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±136.61 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -81
Actual: -391.3
Error: +310.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fiscal Balance (Mexico) was reported at -168.14 billion in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -176.15 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -405.32 billion, ranging from -1,083.10 billion to -19.30 billion across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -198.86 billion, down from the prior three at -167.91 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 333.30 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 493.24 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Fiscal Balance has averaged -260.77 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 136.61 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Fiscal Balance - MX
Loading chart data...
About Fiscal Balance — Mexico
DEFINITION
Fiscal balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure in a given period. It provides insight into the financial health of a country and its ability to manage its budget and debt. A positive fiscal balance indicates that a government's revenue exceeds its spending, while a negative balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is crucial in assessing a government's fiscal responsibility and its impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -168.1 M. Prior reading (May 2026): -391.3 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -37.15 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.77) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |