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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Fiscal Balance fell to -110.1M in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
Mexico Fiscal Balance fell to -110.1M in March 2026, released April 2026, down 40.1M from February's -70M reading. The reading matched the -105M consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -463.42M. Over the past 3 months, Fiscal Balance averaged -126.63M, vs -1,020.57M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 75th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-110.1
Actual
-105
Consensus
-70
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±102.39 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 238.86
Actual: -70
Error: +308.86
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fiscal Balance (Mexico) was reported at -37.15 billion in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -110.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -396.07 billion, ranging from -1,083.10 billion to -19.30 billion across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -42.15 billion, up from the prior three at -828.95 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 335.18 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 485.51 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Fiscal Balance has averaged -236.45 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 102.39 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Fiscal Balance - MX
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About Fiscal Balance — Mexico
DEFINITION
Fiscal balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure in a given period. It provides insight into the financial health of a country and its ability to manage its budget and debt. A positive fiscal balance indicates that a government's revenue exceeds its spending, while a negative balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is crucial in assessing a government's fiscal responsibility and its impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -37.15 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -110.1 M. Before that (Mar 2026): -110.1 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.76) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.