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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.1% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
Mexico GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.1% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 1.9% from March's 0.2% reading. The reading matched the 2.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.63%. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
2.2
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.55
Actual: 2.1
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 2.1% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.09%, ranging from -0.2% to 2.2% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.5%, up from the prior three at 1.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.99%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.54%). In August readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24) and Balance of Trade (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - MX
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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