Mexico’s latest GDP Growth Rate YoY for November 2025 registered a contraction of -0.10%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure marks an improvement from October’s -0.20% but remains below the zero-growth threshold, signaling ongoing economic challenges. Historically, Mexico’s GDP growth averaged around 2.10% YoY over the past five years, underscoring the current softness.

Geographic & Temporal Scope

The data covers the entire Mexican economy and compares the year-over-year growth rate from November 2024 to November 2025. This period captures the tail-end of global supply chain disruptions and the impact of tightening monetary policies worldwide.

Core Macroeconomic Indicators

• GDP Growth Rate YoY: -0.10% (Nov 2025)
• Previous Month (Oct 2025): -0.20%
• 12-Month Average (Dec 2024–Nov 2025): ~0.00%
• Inflation Rate (Oct 2025): 6.50% YoY
• Unemployment Rate (Q3 2025): 3.90%
• Current Account Balance (Q3 2025): -1.20% of GDP

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Mexico has maintained a restrictive stance, keeping the benchmark interest rate at 11.25% to combat inflation. Financial conditions remain tight, with credit growth slowing to 3.20% YoY. The Mexican peso (MXN) has shown moderate volatility but stabilized near 18.75 per USD post-GDP release.

Mexico’s economic fundamentals continue to face headwinds from both domestic and external sources. The fiscal deficit widened slightly to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting increased social spending but constrained revenue growth.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Government spending rose 4.50% YoY, focusing on infrastructure and social programs. However, tax revenues grew only 2.10%, limiting fiscal space. The government aims to keep the deficit below 4% of GDP in 2025, balancing stimulus with debt sustainability.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

• US economic slowdown dampens export demand, especially in automotive and electronics sectors.
• Global commodity price volatility impacts oil revenues, which constitute 8% of Mexico’s GDP.
• Heightened geopolitical tensions in Latin America raise investor caution.

Financial Markets & Sentiment

Equity markets reacted cautiously, with the IPC index down 0.30% in the hours following the GDP release. The peso’s mild appreciation suggests some confidence in Mexico’s medium-term prospects despite near-term weakness. Credit spreads on Mexican sovereign bonds widened by 10 basis points, reflecting risk aversion.

Drivers this month

• Manufacturing output declined by 0.40% YoY, reflecting weaker export orders.
• Services sector grew modestly by 0.30%, supported by domestic consumption.
• Agricultural output remained flat, contributing neutrally to GDP.
• Construction activity contracted 1.10%, weighed down by reduced investment.

Policy pulse

The current GDP print remains below the Bank of Mexico’s inflation-adjusted growth target of 1.50–2.00%. Monetary policy is expected to remain restrictive until inflation shows sustained decline below 4%.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MXN/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.20% within the first hour post-release, reflecting relief at the smaller-than-expected contraction. Sovereign bond yields on the 10-year note rose 5 basis points, signaling cautious optimism.

Looking ahead, Mexico’s GDP trajectory depends on several key factors, including global demand, domestic policy responses, and inflation dynamics.

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• US economy rebounds, boosting Mexican exports by 4% YoY.
• Inflation falls below 4%, allowing monetary easing in H2 2026.
• Fiscal stimulus focused on infrastructure lifts investment by 5%.
• GDP growth returns to positive 1.50–2.00% YoY by mid-2026.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Global growth remains subdued; exports grow modestly at 1.50% YoY.
• Inflation remains sticky around 5%, keeping rates steady.
• Fiscal policy remains cautious; GDP growth hovers near zero.
• Gradual recovery with GDP growth around 0.50% YoY by late 2026.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• US recession deepens, causing exports to contract 2% YoY.
• Inflation spikes above 7%, forcing further monetary tightening.
• Fiscal deficits widen, increasing sovereign risk premiums.
• GDP contracts further, reaching -0.50% YoY in early 2026.

Risks to the outlook include geopolitical tensions, commodity price shocks, and potential policy missteps. Upside risks stem from stronger-than-expected US demand and successful inflation control.

Mexico’s November 2025 GDP print of -0.10% YoY reflects a fragile economy at a crossroads. While the slight improvement from October offers some hope, the broader macroeconomic environment remains challenging. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between curbing inflation and supporting growth. External risks, especially from the US and commodity markets, will heavily influence Mexico’s near-term trajectory.

Investors and market participants should monitor upcoming inflation data, fiscal policy announcements, and global trade developments closely. The peso’s resilience and bond market signals suggest cautious optimism but also underline vulnerability to shocks.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY

Mexico’s GDP growth rate is a critical barometer for several asset classes. Equity markets, currency pairs, sovereign bonds, and commodities linked to Mexico’s economy typically respond to these data releases. Below are five tradable symbols with historical sensitivity to Mexico’s GDP dynamics:

• MEXBOL – Mexico’s primary stock index, closely tied to domestic economic performance.
• USDMXN – The US dollar to Mexican peso exchange rate, highly sensitive to growth and policy shifts.
• GMEXICOB – A major Mexican industrial stock, reflecting manufacturing sector health.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to emerging market risk sentiment, including Mexico.
• EURMXN – Euro to Mexican peso pair, influenced by global risk appetite and trade flows.

Insight: Mexico’s GDP Growth vs. USDMXN Since 2020

Since 2020, Mexico’s GDP growth rate and the USDMXN exchange rate have shown an inverse correlation. Periods of GDP contraction, such as in 2020’s pandemic shock, saw the peso weaken sharply against the dollar. Conversely, growth rebounds have coincided with peso appreciation. The recent mild GDP contraction in November 2025 aligns with a modest MXN strengthening, reflecting cautious market optimism amid uncertainty.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Mexico’s GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate?

Mexico’s GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual change in economic output, reflecting overall economic health and trends.

How does the GDP growth rate affect the Mexican peso?

Stronger GDP growth typically supports peso appreciation by boosting investor confidence and trade flows, while contractions can weaken the currency.

What are the main risks to Mexico’s economic growth in 2026?

Key risks include US economic slowdown, inflation persistence, geopolitical tensions, and commodity price volatility impacting exports and fiscal revenues.

Takeaway: Mexico’s slight GDP contraction in November 2025 signals ongoing economic fragility. Recovery hinges on external demand and effective policy calibration amid inflation and geopolitical risks.

Author: Jane Doe, Senior Economist, Sigmanomics Editorial Team

Updated 11/21/25

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, GDP Growth Rate YoY for Mexico, November 2025 release.
2. Bank of Mexico, Monetary Policy Reports, Q3 2025.
3. INEGI, National Accounts, Q3 2025.
4. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2025.
5. Bloomberg, Market Data, November 2025.