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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.2% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Mexico GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.2% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 1.6% from December's 1.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.62%. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 0.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.49%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.2%, up from the prior three at -0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.78%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.65%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - MX
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish USD, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.