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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.2% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Mexico GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.2% in July 2026, released October 2026, up 1.1% from June's 2.1% reading. The print exceeded the 2.5% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.77%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 33 months.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.45
Actual: 3.2
Error: -0.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 3.2% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.57%, ranging from -0.1% to 3.2% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.5%, up from the prior three at 1.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.07%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.53%). In October readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - MX
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 48 | 48.2 | 48.80 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.1 | 50.00 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 45.1 | 45 | 45.45 | Medium | |