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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.2% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Mexico GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.2% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 2.0% from March's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 1.5% consensus by 0.7%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 27 months.
Latest Release
2.2
Actual
1.5
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.55
Actual: 2.2
Error: -0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 2.2% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.79%, ranging from -0.2% to 2.2% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.4%, up from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.96%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.64%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - MX
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.2 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish USD, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |