Mexico GDP QoQ Surges to 0.9% in January, Topping Estimates
Mexico’s economy posted a robust rebound in January, with quarterly GDP growth accelerating to 0.9%. This marks a significant improvement from December’s 0.8% and a sharp turnaround from the -0.3% contraction seen in both October and November 2025. The latest data, released February 23, 2026, signals renewed momentum after a volatile 2025.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Manufacturing output: +0.22pp
- Services sector: +0.41pp
- Construction: +0.13pp
- Mining: +0.07pp
Policy Pulse
January’s 0.9% GDP growth stands well above Banxico’s medium-term trend target of 0.6% QoQ. The central bank has maintained a cautious stance amid persistent inflation pressures.
Market Lens
MXN rallied modestly on the upside surprise. Investors welcomed the data, with local equities and the peso both gaining ground. The print eased concerns of a prolonged slowdown and reinforced confidence in Mexico’s cyclical recovery.Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
January’s 0.9% expansion is the fastest since August 2025, when GDP rose 0.6%. The economy had contracted -0.3% in both October and November, before rebounding to 0.8% in December. Over the past 12 months, average monthly growth stands at 0.23%.
Comparative Performance
Compared to February 2025’s -0.6% and April’s 0.2%, the current reading underscores a marked improvement. The latest figure also outpaces the consensus estimate of 0.8% for January.
Market Lens
Equity indices extended gains following the release. The positive surprise in GDP, coupled with broad-based sectoral growth, provided a tailwind for risk assets and narrowed sovereign credit spreads.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish: Growth sustains above 0.7% QoQ (30% probability), driven by resilient domestic demand and export recovery.
- Base: GDP moderates to 0.4–0.6% QoQ (55% probability), as external headwinds and policy tightening weigh on momentum.
- Bearish: Activity slips below 0.2% QoQ (15% probability), should global demand falter or inflation re-accelerate.
Risks and Methodology
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected US demand and fiscal stimulus. Downside risks stem from global volatility and persistent inflation. Figures are sourced from INEGI and Sigmanomics, using seasonally adjusted real GDP data[1].
Market Lens
Fixed income yields edged higher post-release. The robust GDP print prompted a modest repricing of rate expectations, though Banxico’s forward guidance remains unchanged.Closing Thoughts
Key Takeaways
- GDP growth of 0.9% in January marks a decisive turnaround for Mexico’s economy.
- Momentum has improved across manufacturing, services, and construction.
- Markets responded positively, with the peso and equities both advancing.
Market Lens
Investor sentiment improved on the back of the data. The release has reinforced confidence in Mexico’s near-term growth prospects, though vigilance remains warranted amid external risks.Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Mexico’s stronger-than-expected GDP print has triggered notable moves across asset classes. The peso firmed, local equities gained, and select US stocks with Mexican exposure saw increased activity. Below are key symbols directly impacted by the data, each verified for active trading and relevance.
- AAPL – Apple’s supply chain and sales in Mexico benefit from stronger domestic demand.
- USDMXN – The peso rallied on the GDP beat, reflecting improved macro fundamentals.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin volumes in Mexico often rise during periods of economic volatility and FX moves.
| Year | GDP QoQ (%) | USDMXN Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -17.0 | +22.1 |
| 2021 | +3.1 | -4.7 |
| 2022 | +1.9 | -3.2 |
| 2023 | +0.7 | -2.1 |
| 2024 | +1.2 | -1.5 |
| 2025 | -0.3 | +0.8 |
Since 2020, periods of stronger GDP growth in Mexico have generally coincided with peso appreciation against the US dollar, as reflected in the USDMXN pair.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Mexico’s latest GDP QoQ figure indicate?
- Mexico’s GDP grew 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in January, signaling a strong rebound from late 2025’s contraction and surpassing market expectations.
- How did markets react to the January GDP release?
- Markets responded positively, with the peso and local equities advancing on the stronger-than-expected economic data.
- What is the focus keyword for this report?
- Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Mexico’s economy is regaining momentum, with January’s GDP print marking a clear shift back to growth.
Updated 2/23/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] INEGI, Sigmanomics Economic Database, "Mexico Real GDP Quarterly Data," accessed February 23, 2026.
January’s GDP print of 0.9% outpaces December’s 0.8% and the 12-month average of 0.23%. This marks the third consecutive month of positive growth, following two quarters of contraction. The trend since February 2025 (-0.6%) highlights a pronounced turnaround.
Momentum has shifted decisively upward, with the latest reading representing the strongest monthly gain since August 2025. The data series shows a clear inflection from the negative territory seen in late 2025.