Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.6% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.6% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 1.5% from December's 0.9% reading. The print exceeded the -0.8% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.21%.
Latest Release
-0.6
Actual
-0.8
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.75
Actual: -0.6
Error: -0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Mexico) was reported at -0.6% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.8% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.26%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.9% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, up from the prior three at 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ - MX
Loading chart data...
About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -0.600000% in April, beating the -0.800000% estimate. This marks an improvement from March's -0.800000% contraction, signaling a less severe economic decline. The data may influence market pricing and central bank considerations ahead of upcoming economic reports. Updated 5/22/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.6 %, consensus -0.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.