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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 1.4% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Mexico Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 1.4% in Q2 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from March's 1.5% reading. The reading missed the 1.5% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.32%. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
1.5
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1.6
Actual: 1.4
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Mexico) was reported at 1.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.62%, ranging from -0.6% to 1.5% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.8%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.46%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - MX
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 1.400000% in July, missing the 1.500000% estimate and down from June's 1.500000%. The economy showed a slight deceleration month-over-month but remained in expansion territory. Market focus will remain on upcoming data for signs of sustained growth amid central bank caution. Updated 8/24/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 48 | 48.2 | 48.80 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.1 | 50.00 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 45.1 | 45 | 45.45 | Medium | |