Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product YoY contracted by -0.10%, beating the -0.20% estimate and improving from 0.00% last month. This 0.10 percentage point improvement signals a mild contraction but suggests tentative stabilization amid ongoing economic headwinds. Looking ahead, cautious optimism prevails as policymakers weigh tight monetary conditions against the need for structural reforms to support a sustained recovery. Updated 11/21/25
Gross Domestic Product Yoy - MX
Loading chart data...
Listen to: Mexico Gross Domestic Product YoY
Mexico’s Latest GDP YoY Release: A Subtle Contraction Amid Lingering Uncertainties
Key Takeaways: Mexico’s GDP contracted by 0.10% YoY in November 2025, improving from a -0.20% estimate and stable zero growth last month. This mild contraction contrasts with the prior flat reading and signals persistent headwinds. Monetary tightening, fiscal consolidation, and external shocks weigh on growth. Financial markets showed muted reaction, reflecting cautious optimism. Structural reforms and external demand remain critical for a sustained recovery. Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios range from modest rebound (40%) to prolonged stagnation (35%) and deeper contraction (25%).
Mexico’s latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) year-on-year (YoY) figure, released on November 21, 2025, shows a contraction of -0.10%, a slight improvement from the -0.20% forecast and the previous month’s flat reading. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing economic challenges amid a complex global and domestic environment.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
The GDP figure covers the Mexican economy’s performance over the past 12 months, capturing the period from late 2024 through late 2025. This timeframe includes the impact of global inflationary pressures, tightening monetary policies worldwide, and regional trade dynamics. Mexico’s economy, heavily integrated with the US and Latin American markets, remains sensitive to external demand and commodity price fluctuations.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
GDP YoY: -0.10% (Nov 2025), improving from -0.20% estimate and 0.00% prior.
Inflation rate (latest): 5.10%, above the central bank’s 3% target.
Unemployment rate: 3.90%, stable but with sectoral disparities.
Current account balance: -1.20% of GDP, reflecting trade deficits.
Exchange rate (MXN/USD): 18.75, depreciated 1.30% over the past month.
Mexico’s GDP contraction contrasts with the modest growth of 1.20% YoY recorded in the same period last year. The economy’s stagnation reflects a combination of subdued domestic demand and external headwinds. The manufacturing sector, a key growth driver, has slowed, while services show resilience but limited expansion.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has maintained a restrictive stance, keeping the benchmark interest rate at 11.25% to combat inflationary pressures. Real interest rates remain positive, tightening credit conditions. The central bank’s inflation target of 3% remains elusive, with core inflation sticky above 5%. Financial conditions have tightened, reflected in higher borrowing costs and cautious lending.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government aiming to reduce the budget deficit from 3.50% of GDP in 2024 to 2.80% in 2025. Public investment has been restrained, focusing on infrastructure projects with long-term payoffs. Social spending remains stable but under pressure from rising inflation and currency depreciation.
The November 2025 GDP YoY print of -0.10% marks a slight improvement from October’s -0.20% but remains below the 12-month average growth of 0.30%. This signals a tentative stabilization after two consecutive quarters of contraction. The manufacturing sector’s PMI at 49.80 corroborates the mild downturn, while services continue to support the economy.
Key figure: The 0.10 percentage point improvement from last month suggests a bottoming out rather than a recovery.
Historical comparisons highlight that Mexico last experienced a similar mild contraction in early 2023, when GDP dipped -0.15% YoY amid global supply chain disruptions. The current print is better than the -0.40% contraction seen in mid-2024 but worse than the 1.20% growth recorded in late 2023. This pattern suggests a volatile but gradually improving trajectory.
This chart reveals Mexico’s GDP is trending upward from recent lows but remains vulnerable to external shocks and domestic policy constraints. The slight improvement signals cautious optimism but underscores the need for supportive measures to sustain growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MXN/USD currency pair depreciated 0.50% within the first hour post-release, reflecting investor caution. The 2-year government bond yield edged up 5 basis points, signaling slightly higher risk premiums. Breakeven inflation rates remained stable, indicating unchanged inflation expectations.
Looking ahead, Mexico’s growth prospects hinge on several factors, including global demand, domestic policy adjustments, and structural reforms. The following scenarios outline potential trajectories:
Scenario Analysis
Bullish (40% probability): Global demand recovers, US-Mexico trade strengthens, and Banxico eases monetary policy by mid-2026. GDP growth rebounds to 1.50% YoY.
Base (35% probability): Continued moderate external demand and stable but tight monetary conditions keep GDP near zero growth, with slight positive momentum (0.30%).
Bearish (25% probability): External shocks (e.g., US recession), fiscal tightening, and inflation persistence deepen contraction to -0.50% YoY.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Mexico’s long-term growth depends on diversifying exports, improving productivity, and enhancing labor market flexibility. Recent reforms in energy and digital infrastructure offer promise but require time to impact GDP significantly. Demographic shifts and urbanization trends also shape future potential.
Mexico’s latest GDP YoY contraction of -0.10% reflects a fragile economy navigating multiple headwinds. While the slight improvement from last month offers hope, risks remain elevated. Monetary policy remains tight, fiscal discipline continues, and external uncertainties persist. Financial markets’ muted reaction suggests tempered expectations. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to avoid prolonged stagnation.
Continued monitoring of inflation trends, credit conditions, and external demand will be critical. Structural reforms and targeted fiscal stimulus could unlock growth potential. Investors should watch for signals from Banxico and trade partners for clearer direction.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY
Mexico’s GDP figures influence a range of markets, from currency pairs to equities and bonds. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with Mexico’s economic performance and provide insight into market sentiment and risk appetite.
MXNUSD: The Mexican peso’s exchange rate against the US dollar is highly sensitive to GDP changes, reflecting investor confidence and capital flows.
GMEXICOB: A major Mexican equity index ETF, tracking domestic corporate earnings and economic activity.
WALMEX: Walmart de México, a retail giant whose sales correlate with consumer spending and GDP trends.
USDMXN: The inverse of MXNUSD, often used by traders to hedge or speculate on peso movements.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic data releases, including GDP.
Indicator vs. MXNUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Mexico’s GDP YoY growth and the MXNUSD exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of GDP contraction coincide with MXN depreciation, while growth phases support peso appreciation. The 2025 contraction has led to a 1.30% MXN depreciation over the past month, consistent with historical patterns.
FAQs
What does Mexico’s GDP YoY figure indicate?
The GDP YoY figure measures the annual growth rate of Mexico’s economy, signaling expansion or contraction over 12 months.
How does GDP affect the Mexican peso?
Stronger GDP growth typically boosts investor confidence, leading to peso appreciation; contractions often cause depreciation.
Why is the GDP contraction concerning for Mexico?
A contraction signals economic weakness, potentially leading to lower employment, investment, and government revenues.
Takeaway: Mexico’s slight GDP contraction amid tight monetary policy and external pressures calls for cautious optimism. Structural reforms and external demand recovery are vital for a sustained rebound.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/21/25
Economic Calendar - MX Events
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.3
48.5
48
47.45
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.47
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
51.9
53.1
53
52.87
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.8
-1
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-833.94
-830.08
-870
-909.54
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.868
-0.072
-0.5
-1.35
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.5
10.75
10.5
10.46
Medium
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
-0.03
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
5.16
4.73
4.75
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.95
3.98
3.97
3.95
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.1
0.23
0.21
Low
Monday, September 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.6
0
0.4
0.45
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
3.8
-0.6
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.6
-3.1
-0.5
-1.42
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.7
-0.5
0.3
0.20
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.1
2.7
1.2
1.85
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
-0.6
1.8
1.4
1.17
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
-0.4
1.2
1.6
1.20
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
2.7
3.3
2.9
3.65
Low
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.1
-0.7
1.1
1.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.52
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.05
4.01
4.01
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.6
47.1
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.32
0.23
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.01
1.05
0.09
0.11
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.99
5.57
5.09
5.10
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
1.7
-2.7
-2.5
-3.70
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
8.3
2.7
1.9
2.72
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1
1.3
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
-1.3
6
3
3.03
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.92
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
48.5
49.6
49.5
48.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.2
53
52.8
52.67
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
227
226
228
228.00
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-830.08
-693.24
-750
-789.54
Low
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.072
-1.037
-1.35
-2.20
Medium
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
3639
-21374
-1760
436.50
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.98
4.02
4.06
4.04
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.1
1.5
2.2
2.22
Medium
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-0.6
1.6
0.9
1.02
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.03
0.71
0.12
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.18
0.19
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.16
5.61
5.31
5.33
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-3.9
0.3
-1.7
-2.62
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
0
0.2
0.10
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.9
47.4
47
47.43
Medium
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
1.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.32
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.75
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.32
0.22
0.29
0.29
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.05
4.13
4.02
4.02
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
1.05
0.38
1.02
1.03
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
5.57
4.98
5.57
5.58
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
-1.6
1.5
1.1
-0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
2.7
3.8
2
2.82
Low
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-693.24
-525.47
-500
-539.54
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6
18.3
8.4
8.43
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.6
51.1
51.2
50.65
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
52.9
52.9
53
52.87
Medium
10:45
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
226
223
225
225.00
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.2
1.6
2
2.02
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-1.037
1.991
1
0.15
Medium
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.02
4.17
4.02
4.00
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.61
4.78
5.27
5.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.21
0.39
0.41
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.18
0.17
0.19
0.17
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.6
5.4
1.4
1.52
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
3.2
3.5
2.58
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
1
5.1
1.2
1.23
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.7
-0.4
0.4
0.42
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.5
46.9
46
46.43
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.17
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.13
4.21
4.15
4.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.98
4.69
4.84
4.85
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
3.8
4.9
6
6.82
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.38
-0.19
0.24
0.26
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
3.3
13
12
10.80
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
223
221
223
223.00
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.9
0.8
1.2
1.25
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
18.1
3
17.7
17.73
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.1
51.2
51.5
50.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53
53.7
53.4
53.27
Medium
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-525.47
-334.14
-310
-349.54
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.72
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
1.991
-3.746
-2.04
-2.89
Medium
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.78
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
-0.21
0.14
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.15
0.18
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.17
4.31
4.19
4.17
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
5.4
-1.3
3.8
3.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.25
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0
-0.3
-0.40
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
-1.7
1.5
0.58
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0.5
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
5.1
-3
4.4
4.43
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.21
4.37
4.31
4.31
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.65
4.79
4.80
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.21
0.1
0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.19
0.2
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
13
14.4
12
10.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
4.9
21.7
5
5.82
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.7
47.2
47
47.43
Medium
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
3
12.5
11.8
11.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.2
51
50.6
50.05
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.7
54.1
54
53.87
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
221
220
219
219.00
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-334.14
-437.2
-345.2
-384.74
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.62
Medium
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
-12582
11817
-13700
-11503.50
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-3.746
2.098
-0.8
-1.65
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.3
1.5
0.8
0.85
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.13
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
1.6
1.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.21
0.09
-0.22
-0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.31
4.39
4.31
4.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.63
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-1.3
4.5
1.1
1.22
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-1.7
3
0
-0.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.6
0.62
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-3
3.3
-1.2
-1.17
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.29
0.19
0.21
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.37
4.55
4.4
4.40
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.44
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.65
4.42
4.63
4.64
Medium
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
21.7
-12.8
-8
-7.18
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.3
47.2
47.63
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
14.4
4.9
5
3.80
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
12.5
15.3
12.1
12.13
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
2.1
2.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
-0.02
Medium
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.42
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
2.098
-0.585
0.7
-0.15
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.48
4.48
4.50
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.27
-0.03
-0.01
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.16
0.33
0.16
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.39
4.69
4.39
4.37
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
4.4
1.9
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
1.4
-0.9
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.6
0.3
0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3
-0.8
-1
-1.92
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
3.3
2.7
3.5
3.53
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.29
0.09
0.36
0.38
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.55
4.64
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.42
4.4
4.5
4.51
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.49
0.51
0.51
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
-12.8
7.8
318
318.82
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
4.9
23.5
272
270.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.2
43
43.43
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
220
222
225
225.00
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.1
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
15.3
13.4
11.2
11.23
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.3
53
52.87
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.2
52.3
52.5
51.95
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:30
MX
Fiscal Balance
-399.7
-159.14
-80
-119.54
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.5
2.9
2.8
2.82
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.585
-4.315
-0.2
-1.05
Medium
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.27
-0.1
0.28
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.48
4.45
4.45
4.47
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2
1.1
2.6
2.72
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.33
0.24
0.26
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.63
4.62
4.60
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11.25
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.9
0.4
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-0.2
1.2
0.28
Low
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
0.9
1.2
-0.2
-0.42
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
5.1
4.3
1.9
2.65
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
0.3
0
-0.1
-0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.6
2.7
0.9
1.55
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.9
0
2.1
2.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
-0.7
0.4
0.42
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.64
4.76
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.4
0.49
0.49
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.89
0.11
0.13
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.88
4.42
4.43
Medium
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
7.8
9.6
9.9
10.72
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47
47.1
47.5
47.93
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
22.6
6.8
6.6
5.40
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
13.4
19.2
18
18.03
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0
-1.3
0.4
0.45
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-159.14
-1052.62
-650
-689.54
Low
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.3
50.2
49.8
49.25
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
222
214
208
208.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.82
Medium
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.315
4.242
-2.286
-3.14
Medium
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:20
MX
Current Account
11662
908
5000
7196.50
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.1
2.3
0.7
0.82
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0.49
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.24
0.25
0.28
0.26
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.78
4.67
4.65
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.45
4.9
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.5
3.3
2.4
2.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.2
2.7
2.5
1.58
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.2
0.10
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.7
-1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
0
2.9
2
2.03
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11.25
11.25
11.25
11.21
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.76
5.09
4.72
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.89
0.71
0.88
0.90
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.44
0.37
0.37
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.88
4.66
4.88
4.89
Medium
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.1
46.8
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
6.8
16
14
12.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
9.6
-9.9
-2.4
-1.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1.3
1.7
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
19.2
25.5
21.3
21.33
Low
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
214
211
207
207.00
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.2
52
51.4
50.85
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.5
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-1052.62
-762.3
-1000
-1039.54
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.4
3.3
3.1
3.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
4.242
0.63
1.4
0.55
Medium
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.62
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.25
0.46
0.25
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2.3
4.2
3.2
3.32
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
5.19
4.78
4.76
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
4.46
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.52
0.38
0.40
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.28
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.40
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.8
5.6
4.8
4.83
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-1
0.6
0.3
0.32
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
25.5
21.9
22.8
22.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.9
-1.5
0.3
0.35
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:10
MX
Auto Exports YoY
16
21.7
23
21.80
Low
14:10
MX
Auto Production YoY
-9.9
18.1
17.5
18.32
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
4.32
4.55
4.56
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.26
0.5
0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.09
5.3
5.15
5.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.64
0.61
0.63
Medium
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.8
47.3
48
48.43
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Gross Domestic Product YoY Shows Mexico’s Slight Economic Contraction Mexico’s GDP YoY Contracts 0.10 Percent in November 2025 Gross Domestic Product YoY measures the annual percentage change in Mexico’s economic output compared to the same month last year. For November 2025, Mexico’s GDP YoY contracted by 0.10%, improving from the prior estimate of -0.20% and the previous month’s flat reading. This slight decline reflects ongoing challenges from tighter monetary policy, subdued domestic demand, and external shocks. According to Morgan Stanley, “The modest contraction signals that Mexico’s economy is stabilizing but remains vulnerable to global uncertainties and inflation pressures.” The Bank of Mexico’s restrictive interest rates and cautious fiscal stance continue to weigh on growth prospects. While the financial markets reacted mildly, the data underscores the need for structural reforms and stronger external demand to support a sustained recovery in Mexico’s GDP YoY performance.
The November 2025 GDP YoY print of -0.10% marks a slight improvement from October’s -0.20% but remains below the 12-month average growth of 0.30%. This signals a tentative stabilization after two consecutive quarters of contraction. The manufacturing sector’s PMI at 49.80 corroborates the mild downturn, while services continue to support the economy.
Key figure: The 0.10 percentage point improvement from last month suggests a bottoming out rather than a recovery.