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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Mexico Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from March's 2.2% reading. The reading matched the 2.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.76%. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
2.2
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.55
Actual: 2.1
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Mexico) was reported at 2.1% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.09%, ranging from -0.2% to 2.2% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.5%, up from the prior three at 1.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24) and Balance of Trade (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - MX
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 2.100000% for August, missing the 2.200000% estimate and down from July's 2.200000%. The economy showed a slight deceleration compared to the previous month, indicating a modest slowdown in growth momentum. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further clarity on Mexico's economic trajectory. Updated 8/24/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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