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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.2% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 2.0% from March's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 1.5% consensus by 0.7%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
2.2
Actual
1.5
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.55
Actual: 2.2
Error: -0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Mexico) was reported at 2.2% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.79%, ranging from -0.2% to 2.2% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.4%, up from the prior three at 0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - MX
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 2.200000% in June, beating the 1.500000% estimate and up from May's 0.200000%. This marks a strong acceleration in annual growth, signaling expanding economic activity after a modest prior reading. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and central bank policy amid this robust GDP performance. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.2 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish USD, r=0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |