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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.2% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.2% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 1.6% from December's 1.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.65%.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Mexico) was reported at 0.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.49%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.8% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.2%, up from the prior three at -0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - MX
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose to 0.20% in April, beating the 0.10% estimate and improving from March's 0.10%. This marks a significant slowdown from February's 1.8% but indicates a modest recovery after the prior month's flat growth. Market focus remains on upcoming economic data and central bank policy amid this subdued growth environment. Updated 5/22/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish USD, r=0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.