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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Gross Fixed Investment YoY climbed to 7.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Mexico Gross Fixed Investment YoY climbed to 7.7% in June 2026, released September 2026, up 6.6% from May's 1.1% reading. The print exceeded the 4.8% consensus by 2.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -3.76%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Fixed Investment YoY averaged 3.5%, vs -3.37% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Fixed Investment YoY is now the highest in 25 months.
Latest Release
7.7
Actual
4.8
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.73 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.52
Actual: 7.7
Error: -2.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Fixed Investment YoY (Mexico) was reported at 7.7% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.8% by 2.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.35%, ranging from -10.4% to 7.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.9%, up from the prior three at -3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.61%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.92%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Gross Fixed Investment YoY has averaged 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24) and Balance of Trade (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Fixed Investment YoY - MX
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About Gross Fixed Investment YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Gross Fixed Investment YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of fixed assets, such as buildings, equipment, and infrastructure, that businesses and governments invest in. It provides insight into the overall level of investment in an economy and can indicate future economic growth or contraction. This indicator is commonly used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the health and stability of an economy. A positive YoY change in gross fixed investment suggests a growing economy, while a negative change may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 7.7 %, consensus 4.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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