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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Gross Fixed Investment YoY climbed to 5.9% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Gross Fixed Investment YoY climbed to 5.9% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 8.5% from March's -2.6% reading. The print exceeded the 3.8% consensus by 2.1%. Gross Fixed Investment YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Fixed Investment YoY averaged -3.4%, vs -3.8% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Fixed Investment YoY is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
5.9
Actual
3.8
Consensus
-2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.73 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.05
Actual: 5.9
Error: -1.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Fixed Investment YoY (Mexico) was reported at 5.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.8% by 2.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.58%, ranging from -10.4% to 5.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.1%, up from the prior three at -6.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.37%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 4.25%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Fixed Investment YoY - MX
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About Gross Fixed Investment YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Gross Fixed Investment YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of fixed assets, such as buildings, equipment, and infrastructure, that businesses and governments invest in. It provides insight into the overall level of investment in an economy and can indicate future economic growth or contraction. This indicator is commonly used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the health and stability of an economy. A positive YoY change in gross fixed investment suggests a growing economy, while a negative change may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 5.9 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -2.6 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |