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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.8% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 2.9% from April's 2.1% reading. The reading missed the -0.6% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.08%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.75%, vs -0.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 23rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
-0.6
Consensus
2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.27
Actual: -0.8
Error: +0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Mexico) was reported at -0.8% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.6% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.08%, ranging from -1.2% to 2.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, up from the prior three at -0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.91%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.99%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - MX
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About Industrial Production MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.8 %, consensus -0.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |