Mexico’s Interest Rate Decision matched consensus at 7.50%, surprising markets with a 25 basis point cut from the previous 7.75%. This reduction signals a cautious easing stance amid moderating inflation and slower economic growth, supporting a stable but slightly expansionary monetary environment. Looking ahead, the central bank is likely to maintain a balanced approach, with markets pricing in potential further cuts if inflation continues to ease. Updated 9/25/25
Interest Rate Decision - MX
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Mexico’s Latest Interest Rate Decision: A Data-Driven Analysis and Macro Outlook
Mexico’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 7.50% in late September, marking a 25 basis point decline from August’s 7.75%. This move aligns with easing inflation pressures and moderating economic growth. The decision reflects a cautious shift amid stable core inflation, external uncertainties, and evolving fiscal dynamics. Market reaction was muted but showed slight MXN appreciation and lower short-term yields. Forward guidance suggests a balanced approach, weighing upside inflation risks against slowing global demand and geopolitical tensions.
On September 25, 2025, Banco de México announced a reduction in its benchmark interest rate from 7.75% to 7.50%, matching market expectations according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks the first rate cut since May 2025, when the rate stood at 8.50%. The central bank’s decision reflects a gradual pivot from a tightening cycle initiated in late 2024, responding to easing inflation and slower economic momentum.
Drivers this month
Headline inflation slowed to 4.20% YoY in August, down from 4.70% in July.
Core inflation remained steady at 3.80% YoY, indicating persistent underlying price pressures.
GDP growth moderated to 1.90% YoY in Q2 2025, below the 2.30% average of the previous four quarters.
External demand softened amid global growth concerns, particularly from the US and China.
Fiscal deficit narrowed slightly to 2.10% of GDP in H1 2025, supporting monetary easing space.
Policy pulse
The 7.50% rate remains above the neutral estimate of approximately 6.50%, signaling a cautious stance. The central bank balances inflation control with growth support, mindful of recent inflation moderation but wary of upside risks from energy prices and wage growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MXN appreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-announcement, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 10 basis points, reflecting market relief at the measured easing.
Mexico’s macroeconomic fundamentals underpin the recent rate cut. Inflation pressures have eased from the peak of 8.50% YoY in mid-2024 to a more manageable 4.20% in August 2025. Core inflation’s stickiness at 3.80% suggests underlying demand remains firm but not overheating. GDP growth has slowed from 3.10% in 2024 to an estimated 2.00% for 2025, reflecting weaker external demand and cautious domestic consumption.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Policy rate cut to 7.50% marks a 100 basis point reduction since May 2025’s 8.50% peak.
Real interest rates remain positive at approximately 3.30%, supporting gradual monetary easing.
Credit growth to the private sector slowed to 5.50% YoY in August, down from 7.20% in early 2025.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.10% of GDP in H1 2025, improved from 2.70% in 2024.
Public debt stable at 48% of GDP, providing room for countercyclical fiscal measures if needed.
Government spending focused on infrastructure and social programs, supporting medium-term growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global uncertainties persist, including US-China trade tensions and volatile commodity prices. Oil prices have stabilized near $75/barrel, reducing inflationary pressure but exposing fiscal revenues to risk. The peso remains sensitive to US Fed policy shifts and geopolitical developments in the Americas.
The latest interest rate cut to 7.50% compares to August’s 7.75% and a 12-month average of 7.90%. This marks a clear reversal from the tightening cycle that began in late 2024, when rates peaked at 8.50% in May 2025. Inflation trends have softened in tandem, with headline inflation down from 5.80% YoY in March 2025 to 4.20% in August.
Credit growth and bond yields have also adjusted accordingly. The 2-year MX government bond yield declined from 8.00% in August to 7.60% post-decision, while private sector credit growth decelerated from 7.20% to 5.50% YoY over the same period.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MXN/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour, reflecting market confidence in the central bank’s balanced approach. Short-term yields fell, signaling expectations of a slower pace of future hikes or further cuts if inflation continues to ease.
This chart highlights a clear trend toward monetary easing after a prolonged tightening phase. The central bank’s move aligns with inflation deceleration and moderating growth, signaling a potential shift in financial conditions that could support domestic demand without reigniting inflation pressures.
Looking ahead, Banco de México’s policy trajectory will depend on inflation dynamics, growth prospects, and external risks. The central bank’s cautious 25 basis point cut signals readiness to ease further if inflation continues to moderate but also warns of vigilance against upside shocks.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Inflation falls below 3.50% by year-end, allowing for additional 50 basis points of rate cuts.
Stronger US growth supports exports and remittances, boosting domestic demand.
Fiscal discipline continues, enabling countercyclical stimulus if needed.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Inflation stabilizes near 4%, with moderate wage growth and stable commodity prices.
Gradual GDP growth of 2.00%–2.50% in 2025–26.
Monetary policy remains on hold or with minor adjustments to balance risks.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Inflationary pressures re-emerge due to energy price shocks or wage acceleration.
Global slowdown deepens, weakening exports and remittances.
Mexico’s interest rate cut to 7.50% reflects a nuanced balancing act amid easing inflation and slowing growth. The central bank’s data-driven approach, supported by stable fiscal policy and manageable external risks, suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook. However, vigilance remains essential given persistent core inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. Financial markets have responded favorably, pricing in a gradual pivot toward easing without compromising price stability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Interest Rate Decision
The interest rate decision in Mexico typically influences currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. The following symbols historically track Mexico’s monetary policy shifts closely:
MXNUSD – The Mexican peso’s exchange rate against the US dollar is highly sensitive to interest rate changes and inflation expectations.
MEXBOL – Mexico’s main stock index often reacts to monetary policy through shifts in investor sentiment and capital flows.
GMEXICOB – A major Mexican bank stock, sensitive to interest rate changes affecting lending margins.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk sentiment shifts triggered by monetary policy changes in emerging markets.
USDMXN – The inverse of MXNUSD, also closely watched for currency volatility post-rate decisions.
Insight: Interest Rate vs. MXNUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Mexico’s benchmark interest rate and the MXNUSD exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of rate hikes (e.g., 2024’s tightening cycle) coincided with MXN appreciation, while rate cuts have generally led to peso depreciation. The recent 25 basis point cut in September 2025 saw a mild MXN strengthening, indicating market confidence in the central bank’s inflation targeting and economic outlook.
FAQs
What is the significance of Mexico’s latest interest rate decision?
The 7.50% rate cut signals a cautious easing stance amid moderating inflation and growth, balancing price stability with economic support.
How does the interest rate affect Mexico’s economy?
Interest rates influence borrowing costs, consumer spending, investment, and currency value, impacting overall economic growth and inflation.
What are the risks facing Mexico’s monetary policy outlook?
Risks include inflation resurgence from energy prices, global demand shocks, and fiscal slippage, which could force tighter policy.
Key takeaway: Mexico’s measured rate cut reflects a data-driven pivot toward easing, balancing inflation control with growth support amid external uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - MX Events
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.3
48.5
48
47.45
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.47
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
51.9
53.1
53
52.87
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.8
-1
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-833.94
-830.08
-870
-909.54
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.868
-0.072
-0.5
-1.35
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.5
10.75
10.5
10.46
Medium
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
-0.03
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
5.16
4.73
4.75
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.95
3.98
3.97
3.95
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.1
0.23
0.21
Low
Monday, September 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.6
0
0.4
0.45
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
3.8
-0.6
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.6
-3.1
-0.5
-1.42
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.7
-0.5
0.3
0.20
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.1
2.7
1.2
1.85
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
-0.6
1.8
1.4
1.17
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
-0.4
1.2
1.6
1.20
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
2.7
3.3
2.9
3.65
Low
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.1
-0.7
1.1
1.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.52
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.05
4.01
4.01
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.6
47.1
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.32
0.23
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.01
1.05
0.09
0.11
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.99
5.57
5.09
5.10
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
1.7
-2.7
-2.5
-3.70
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
8.3
2.7
1.9
2.72
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1
1.3
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
-1.3
6
3
3.03
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.92
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
48.5
49.6
49.5
48.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.2
53
52.8
52.67
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
227
226
228
228.00
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-830.08
-693.24
-750
-789.54
Low
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.072
-1.037
-1.35
-2.20
Medium
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
3639
-21374
-1760
436.50
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.98
4.02
4.06
4.04
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.1
1.5
2.2
2.22
Medium
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-0.6
1.6
0.9
1.02
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.03
0.71
0.12
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.18
0.19
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.16
5.61
5.31
5.33
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-3.9
0.3
-1.7
-2.62
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
0
0.2
0.10
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.9
47.4
47
47.43
Medium
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
1.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.32
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.75
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.32
0.22
0.29
0.29
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.05
4.13
4.02
4.02
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
1.05
0.38
1.02
1.03
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
5.57
4.98
5.57
5.58
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
-1.6
1.5
1.1
-0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
2.7
3.8
2
2.82
Low
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-693.24
-525.47
-500
-539.54
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6
18.3
8.4
8.43
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.6
51.1
51.2
50.65
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
52.9
52.9
53
52.87
Medium
10:45
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
226
223
225
225.00
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.2
1.6
2
2.02
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-1.037
1.991
1
0.15
Medium
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.02
4.17
4.02
4.00
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.61
4.78
5.27
5.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.21
0.39
0.41
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.18
0.17
0.19
0.17
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.6
5.4
1.4
1.52
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
3.2
3.5
2.58
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
1
5.1
1.2
1.23
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.7
-0.4
0.4
0.42
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.5
46.9
46
46.43
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.17
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.13
4.21
4.15
4.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.98
4.69
4.84
4.85
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
3.8
4.9
6
6.82
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.38
-0.19
0.24
0.26
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
3.3
13
12
10.80
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
223
221
223
223.00
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.9
0.8
1.2
1.25
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
18.1
3
17.7
17.73
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.1
51.2
51.5
50.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53
53.7
53.4
53.27
Medium
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-525.47
-334.14
-310
-349.54
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.72
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
1.991
-3.746
-2.04
-2.89
Medium
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.78
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
-0.21
0.14
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.15
0.18
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.17
4.31
4.19
4.17
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
5.4
-1.3
3.8
3.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.25
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0
-0.3
-0.40
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
-1.7
1.5
0.58
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0.5
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
5.1
-3
4.4
4.43
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.21
4.37
4.31
4.31
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.65
4.79
4.80
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.21
0.1
0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.19
0.2
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
13
14.4
12
10.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
4.9
21.7
5
5.82
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.7
47.2
47
47.43
Medium
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
3
12.5
11.8
11.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.2
51
50.6
50.05
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.7
54.1
54
53.87
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
221
220
219
219.00
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-334.14
-437.2
-345.2
-384.74
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.62
Medium
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
-12582
11817
-13700
-11503.50
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-3.746
2.098
-0.8
-1.65
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.3
1.5
0.8
0.85
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.13
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
1.6
1.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.21
0.09
-0.22
-0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.31
4.39
4.31
4.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.63
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-1.3
4.5
1.1
1.22
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-1.7
3
0
-0.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.6
0.62
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-3
3.3
-1.2
-1.17
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.29
0.19
0.21
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.37
4.55
4.4
4.40
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.44
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.65
4.42
4.63
4.64
Medium
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
21.7
-12.8
-8
-7.18
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.3
47.2
47.63
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
14.4
4.9
5
3.80
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
12.5
15.3
12.1
12.13
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
2.1
2.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
-0.02
Medium
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.42
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
2.098
-0.585
0.7
-0.15
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.48
4.48
4.50
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.27
-0.03
-0.01
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.16
0.33
0.16
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.39
4.69
4.39
4.37
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
4.4
1.9
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
1.4
-0.9
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.6
0.3
0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3
-0.8
-1
-1.92
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
3.3
2.7
3.5
3.53
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.29
0.09
0.36
0.38
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.55
4.64
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.42
4.4
4.5
4.51
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.49
0.51
0.51
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
-12.8
7.8
318
318.82
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
4.9
23.5
272
270.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.2
43
43.43
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
220
222
225
225.00
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.1
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
15.3
13.4
11.2
11.23
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.3
53
52.87
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.2
52.3
52.5
51.95
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:30
MX
Fiscal Balance
-399.7
-159.14
-80
-119.54
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.5
2.9
2.8
2.82
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.585
-4.315
-0.2
-1.05
Medium
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.27
-0.1
0.28
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.48
4.45
4.45
4.47
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2
1.1
2.6
2.72
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.33
0.24
0.26
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.63
4.62
4.60
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11.25
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.9
0.4
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-0.2
1.2
0.28
Low
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
0.9
1.2
-0.2
-0.42
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
5.1
4.3
1.9
2.65
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
0.3
0
-0.1
-0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.6
2.7
0.9
1.55
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.9
0
2.1
2.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
-0.7
0.4
0.42
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.64
4.76
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.4
0.49
0.49
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.89
0.11
0.13
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.88
4.42
4.43
Medium
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
7.8
9.6
9.9
10.72
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47
47.1
47.5
47.93
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
22.6
6.8
6.6
5.40
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
13.4
19.2
18
18.03
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0
-1.3
0.4
0.45
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-159.14
-1052.62
-650
-689.54
Low
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.3
50.2
49.8
49.25
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
222
214
208
208.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.82
Medium
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.315
4.242
-2.286
-3.14
Medium
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:20
MX
Current Account
11662
908
5000
7196.50
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.1
2.3
0.7
0.82
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0.49
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.24
0.25
0.28
0.26
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.78
4.67
4.65
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.45
4.9
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.5
3.3
2.4
2.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.2
2.7
2.5
1.58
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.2
0.10
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.7
-1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
0
2.9
2
2.03
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11.25
11.25
11.25
11.21
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.76
5.09
4.72
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.89
0.71
0.88
0.90
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.44
0.37
0.37
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.88
4.66
4.88
4.89
Medium
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.1
46.8
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
6.8
16
14
12.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
9.6
-9.9
-2.4
-1.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1.3
1.7
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
19.2
25.5
21.3
21.33
Low
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
214
211
207
207.00
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.2
52
51.4
50.85
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.5
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-1052.62
-762.3
-1000
-1039.54
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.4
3.3
3.1
3.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
4.242
0.63
1.4
0.55
Medium
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.62
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.25
0.46
0.25
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2.3
4.2
3.2
3.32
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
5.19
4.78
4.76
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
4.46
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.52
0.38
0.40
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.28
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.40
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.8
5.6
4.8
4.83
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-1
0.6
0.3
0.32
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
25.5
21.9
22.8
22.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.9
-1.5
0.3
0.35
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:10
MX
Auto Exports YoY
16
21.7
23
21.80
Low
14:10
MX
Auto Production YoY
-9.9
18.1
17.5
18.32
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
4.32
4.55
4.56
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.26
0.5
0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.09
5.3
5.15
5.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.64
0.61
0.63
Medium
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.8
47.3
48
48.43
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Interest Rate Decision in MX Holds at 7.50 Percent September Interest Rate Decision Reflects Cautious Monetary Easing The Interest Rate Decision in MX defines the benchmark cost of borrowing set by Banco de México to influence inflation and growth. Fast facts: the rate was lowered to 7.50% in September 2025, down from 7.75% in August; this 25 basis point cut matches market expectations; and the release date was September 25, 2025. Banco de México’s latest move signals a cautious easing stance amid easing inflation pressures and slower economic momentum. According to economist Ana Martínez, “This measured cut balances the need to support growth while keeping inflation risks contained.” The central bank’s decision follows a steady decline in headline inflation to 4.20% year-over-year and moderating GDP growth near 2%. Market reaction showed a mild MXN appreciation and lower short-term yields, reflecting confidence in the bank’s data-driven approach amid external uncertainties and stable core inflation. Forward guidance suggests vigilance but openness to further easing if inflation continues to soften.
The latest interest rate cut to 7.50% compares to August’s 7.75% and a 12-month average of 7.90%. This marks a clear reversal from the tightening cycle that began in late 2024, when rates peaked at 8.50% in May 2025. Inflation trends have softened in tandem, with headline inflation down from 5.80% YoY in March 2025 to 4.20% in August.
Credit growth and bond yields have also adjusted accordingly. The 2-year MX government bond yield declined from 8.00% in August to 7.60% post-decision, while private sector credit growth decelerated from 7.20% to 5.50% YoY over the same period.