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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Private Spending QoQ fell to 1.0% in Q4 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Mexico Private Spending QoQ fell to 1.0% in Q4 2025, released March 2026, down 0.1% from September's 1.1% reading. The reading missed the 1.6% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.56%.
Latest Release
1
Actual
1.6
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 1.6
Actual: 1
Error: +0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish MXN | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Private Spending QoQ (Mexico) was reported at 1% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.6% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.57%, up from the prior three at -0.23%. In March readings over the past 3 years, Private Spending QoQ has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN). A secondary relationship exists with WTI Crude, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Private Spending QoQ - MX
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About Private Spending QoQ — Mexico
DEFINITION
Private Spending QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in consumer spending from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy by tracking the level of private consumption, which is a key driver of economic growth. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can indicate shifts in consumer behavior and potential changes in economic trends. A positive Private Spending QoQ indicates an increase in consumer confidence and a potential boost to economic growth, while a negative reading may signal a slowdown in economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 1 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 1.1 %. Before that (Apr 2025): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.