Mexico’s Private Spending YoY for September 2025 came in at -0.40%, missing the 0.20% consensus estimate but improving from June’s -0.60%. This marks a third consecutive quarter of contraction, signaling ongoing domestic demand weakness despite a modest rebound. Looking ahead, sustained recovery hinges on easing inflation and monetary policy adjustments to support credit growth and consumer confidence. Updated 9/19/25
Private Spending Yoy - MX
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Listen to: Mexico Private Spending YoY
Mexico’s Private Spending YoY: September 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Mexico’s private spending contracted by 0.40% year-over-year in September 2025, marking a modest improvement from June’s -0.60% but still below expectations. This report analyzes the latest data from the Sigmanomics database, compares it with historical trends, and assesses the broader macroeconomic implications for Mexico’s economy amid evolving monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical conditions.
Mexico’s private spending YoY declined by 0.40% in September 2025, improving from June’s -0.60% but missing the 0.20% consensus estimate. This marks the third consecutive quarter of contraction, a notable shift from the robust growth seen in 2023 and early 2024. The Sigmanomics database shows private spending peaked at 5.10% YoY in March 2024 before a steady slowdown.
Moderate recovery in manufacturing and retail sectors.
Policy pulse
Private spending remains below the Bank of Mexico’s inflation target zone, reflecting subdued domestic demand. The central bank’s cumulative rate hikes since late 2023 have tightened financial conditions, dampening credit growth and consumer spending.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MXN/USD currency pair depreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over slower domestic demand. The 2-year government bond yield rose 5 basis points, signaling increased risk premia on short-term debt.
Private spending is a critical gauge of Mexico’s domestic economic health. The latest -0.40% YoY contrasts sharply with the 4.30% average growth recorded in the 12 months before March 2025. Core inflation remains sticky at 4.70% YoY, while unemployment holds steady near 3.80%, indicating labor market resilience despite spending weakness.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Mexico has raised its benchmark rate by 425 basis points since late 2023, aiming to curb inflation. This has increased borrowing costs, with consumer loan rates rising from 12.50% to 15.30% over the past year. Tighter credit availability has directly impacted private consumption.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit target of 2.50% of GDP. Increased social spending and infrastructure projects aim to support growth, but limited fiscal space constrains stimulus potential amid global uncertainties.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Mexico faces external headwinds from slowing US demand and persistent supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical tensions in the Americas and trade uncertainties with key partners add risk to export-driven growth, indirectly affecting consumer confidence and spending.
The September 2025 private spending YoY print of -0.40% shows a modest rebound from June’s -0.60%, yet remains well below the 12-month average of 2.70% recorded between September 2023 and September 2024. This signals a persistent slowdown in consumer demand despite some stabilization.
Comparing monthly trends, private spending contracted by 0.60% in June 2025 and was flat in March 2025 at 0.40%. The downward trajectory since early 2025 reflects the cumulative impact of monetary tightening and external shocks.
Sector-wise, retail sales and services have shown the largest drag, while durable goods consumption has stabilized. Inflation-adjusted wage growth remains weak, limiting purchasing power. The Sigmanomics database confirms a correlation between private spending and consumer credit growth, which has slowed to 1.20% YoY from 5.80% in mid-2024.
This chart highlights a clear trend of decelerating private spending, reversing the strong growth phase of 2023. The recent slight improvement suggests potential bottoming out, but sustained recovery depends on easing financial conditions and external demand.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MXN depreciated 0.30%, while 2-year yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting market caution. Inflation breakevens edged lower, signaling tempered inflation expectations amid slower spending.
Looking ahead, Mexico’s private spending trajectory will hinge on several factors. A bullish scenario (30% probability) assumes inflation eases below 4%, enabling the central bank to pause rate hikes by Q4 2025. This would lower borrowing costs, boosting consumption and pushing private spending back to positive territory (1.50% YoY) by mid-2026.
The base case (50% probability) expects continued subdued growth with private spending hovering near zero through 2026. Inflation remains sticky, and global uncertainties persist, limiting consumer confidence and credit expansion.
The bearish scenario (20% probability) envisions a sharper downturn triggered by renewed external shocks or fiscal tightening. Private spending could contract further (-1.50% YoY), exacerbating growth risks and pressuring the peso and financial markets.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Mexico’s demographic dividend and expanding middle class support long-term consumption growth. However, structural challenges such as income inequality, informal employment, and limited financial inclusion constrain spending resilience. Digital transformation and e-commerce growth offer new consumption channels but require supportive policies.
Mexico’s private spending contraction in September 2025 reflects a complex interplay of tighter monetary policy, external headwinds, and structural constraints. While the slight improvement from June is encouraging, sustained recovery depends on inflation moderation, fiscal support, and global demand stabilization. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act to nurture growth without reigniting inflation.
Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to private spending data as a barometer of domestic demand. The peso’s recent volatility and bond yield shifts underscore investor caution. Close monitoring of credit conditions and consumer sentiment will be essential for anticipating Mexico’s economic trajectory.
Key Markets Likely to React to Private Spending YoY
Private spending data in Mexico is a critical indicator for multiple asset classes. The MXN currency pair often reacts swiftly to shifts in domestic demand, reflecting changes in trade balances and capital flows. Mexican government bonds respond to growth and inflation outlooks, influencing yields. Additionally, regional equity indices and select commodities tied to consumer activity show correlated movements.
MXNUSD – Directly impacted by private spending trends through trade and capital flows.
MEXBOL – Mexico’s main equity index sensitive to consumer sector performance.
BTCUSD – Crypto markets show risk sentiment shifts linked to economic data.
USDMXN – Inverse of MXNUSD, also sensitive to private spending changes.
Insight: Private Spending YoY vs. MXNUSD Since 2020
Year
Private Spending YoY (%)
MXNUSD Annual Change (%)
2020
-7.20
-12.50
2021
3.80
8.30
2022
2.50
-4.70
2023
4.30
3.10
2024
2.90
-1.20
2025 (YTD)
-0.40
-2.80
The table shows a positive correlation between private spending growth and MXNUSD appreciation. Periods of strong consumption coincide with peso strength, while contractions align with depreciation, underscoring the peso’s sensitivity to domestic demand.
FAQs
What does Mexico’s Private Spending YoY indicate?
Private Spending YoY measures the annual change in consumer and business spending, reflecting domestic demand strength in Mexico’s economy.
How does Private Spending YoY affect Mexico’s economy?
It influences GDP growth, inflation, and monetary policy decisions by indicating consumer confidence and credit conditions.
Why is the Private Spending YoY important for investors?
It signals economic momentum, impacting currency valuations, bond yields, and equity market performance in Mexico.
Takeaway: Mexico’s private spending contraction signals ongoing domestic demand challenges, but recent stabilization offers cautious optimism. Policy calibration and external factors will determine the pace of recovery.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Key Markets Likely to React to Private Spending YoY
MXNUSD – Mexican peso vs. US dollar, sensitive to domestic demand shifts.
MEXBOL – Mexico’s main stock index, reflects consumer sector performance.
WALMEX.MX – Retail sector bellwether, closely tied to consumer spending.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, a proxy for risk sentiment impacting emerging markets.
USDMXN – Inverse of MXNUSD, also tracks private spending trends.
Economic Calendar - MX Events
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.3
48.5
48
47.45
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.47
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
51.9
53.1
53
52.87
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.8
-1
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-833.94
-830.08
-870
-909.54
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.868
-0.072
-0.5
-1.35
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.5
10.75
10.5
10.46
Medium
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
-0.03
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
5.16
4.73
4.75
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.95
3.98
3.97
3.95
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.1
0.23
0.21
Low
Monday, September 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.6
0
0.4
0.45
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
3.8
-0.6
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.6
-3.1
-0.5
-1.42
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.7
-0.5
0.3
0.20
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.1
2.7
1.2
1.85
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
-0.6
1.8
1.4
1.17
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
-0.4
1.2
1.6
1.20
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
2.7
3.3
2.9
3.65
Low
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.1
-0.7
1.1
1.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.52
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.05
4.01
4.01
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.6
47.1
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.32
0.23
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.01
1.05
0.09
0.11
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.99
5.57
5.09
5.10
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
1.7
-2.7
-2.5
-3.70
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
8.3
2.7
1.9
2.72
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1
1.3
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
-1.3
6
3
3.03
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.92
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
48.5
49.6
49.5
48.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.2
53
52.8
52.67
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
227
226
228
228.00
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-830.08
-693.24
-750
-789.54
Low
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.072
-1.037
-1.35
-2.20
Medium
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
3639
-21374
-1760
436.50
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.98
4.02
4.06
4.04
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.1
1.5
2.2
2.22
Medium
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-0.6
1.6
0.9
1.02
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.03
0.71
0.12
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.18
0.19
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.16
5.61
5.31
5.33
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-3.9
0.3
-1.7
-2.62
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
0
0.2
0.10
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.9
47.4
47
47.43
Medium
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
1.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.32
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.75
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.32
0.22
0.29
0.29
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.05
4.13
4.02
4.02
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
1.05
0.38
1.02
1.03
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
5.57
4.98
5.57
5.58
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
-1.6
1.5
1.1
-0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
2.7
3.8
2
2.82
Low
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-693.24
-525.47
-500
-539.54
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6
18.3
8.4
8.43
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.6
51.1
51.2
50.65
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
52.9
52.9
53
52.87
Medium
10:45
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
226
223
225
225.00
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.2
1.6
2
2.02
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-1.037
1.991
1
0.15
Medium
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.02
4.17
4.02
4.00
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.61
4.78
5.27
5.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.21
0.39
0.41
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.18
0.17
0.19
0.17
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.6
5.4
1.4
1.52
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
3.2
3.5
2.58
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
1
5.1
1.2
1.23
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.7
-0.4
0.4
0.42
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.5
46.9
46
46.43
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.17
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.13
4.21
4.15
4.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.98
4.69
4.84
4.85
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
3.8
4.9
6
6.82
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.38
-0.19
0.24
0.26
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
3.3
13
12
10.80
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
223
221
223
223.00
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.9
0.8
1.2
1.25
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
18.1
3
17.7
17.73
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.1
51.2
51.5
50.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53
53.7
53.4
53.27
Medium
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-525.47
-334.14
-310
-349.54
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.72
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
1.991
-3.746
-2.04
-2.89
Medium
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.78
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
-0.21
0.14
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.15
0.18
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.17
4.31
4.19
4.17
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
5.4
-1.3
3.8
3.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.25
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0
-0.3
-0.40
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
-1.7
1.5
0.58
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0.5
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
5.1
-3
4.4
4.43
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.21
4.37
4.31
4.31
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.65
4.79
4.80
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.21
0.1
0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.19
0.2
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
13
14.4
12
10.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
4.9
21.7
5
5.82
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.7
47.2
47
47.43
Medium
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
3
12.5
11.8
11.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.2
51
50.6
50.05
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.7
54.1
54
53.87
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
221
220
219
219.00
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-334.14
-437.2
-345.2
-384.74
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.62
Medium
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
-12582
11817
-13700
-11503.50
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-3.746
2.098
-0.8
-1.65
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.3
1.5
0.8
0.85
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.13
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
1.6
1.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.21
0.09
-0.22
-0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.31
4.39
4.31
4.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.63
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-1.3
4.5
1.1
1.22
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-1.7
3
0
-0.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.6
0.62
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-3
3.3
-1.2
-1.17
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.29
0.19
0.21
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.37
4.55
4.4
4.40
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.44
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.65
4.42
4.63
4.64
Medium
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
21.7
-12.8
-8
-7.18
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.3
47.2
47.63
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
14.4
4.9
5
3.80
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
12.5
15.3
12.1
12.13
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
2.1
2.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
-0.02
Medium
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.42
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
2.098
-0.585
0.7
-0.15
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.48
4.48
4.50
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.27
-0.03
-0.01
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.16
0.33
0.16
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.39
4.69
4.39
4.37
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
4.4
1.9
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
1.4
-0.9
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.6
0.3
0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3
-0.8
-1
-1.92
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
3.3
2.7
3.5
3.53
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.29
0.09
0.36
0.38
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.55
4.64
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.42
4.4
4.5
4.51
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.49
0.51
0.51
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
-12.8
7.8
318
318.82
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
4.9
23.5
272
270.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.2
43
43.43
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
220
222
225
225.00
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.1
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
15.3
13.4
11.2
11.23
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.3
53
52.87
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.2
52.3
52.5
51.95
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:30
MX
Fiscal Balance
-399.7
-159.14
-80
-119.54
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.5
2.9
2.8
2.82
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.585
-4.315
-0.2
-1.05
Medium
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.27
-0.1
0.28
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.48
4.45
4.45
4.47
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2
1.1
2.6
2.72
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.33
0.24
0.26
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.63
4.62
4.60
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11.25
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.9
0.4
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-0.2
1.2
0.28
Low
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
0.9
1.2
-0.2
-0.42
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
5.1
4.3
1.9
2.65
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
0.3
0
-0.1
-0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.6
2.7
0.9
1.55
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.9
0
2.1
2.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
-0.7
0.4
0.42
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.64
4.76
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.4
0.49
0.49
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.89
0.11
0.13
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.88
4.42
4.43
Medium
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
7.8
9.6
9.9
10.72
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47
47.1
47.5
47.93
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
22.6
6.8
6.6
5.40
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
13.4
19.2
18
18.03
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0
-1.3
0.4
0.45
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-159.14
-1052.62
-650
-689.54
Low
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.3
50.2
49.8
49.25
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
222
214
208
208.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.82
Medium
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.315
4.242
-2.286
-3.14
Medium
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:20
MX
Current Account
11662
908
5000
7196.50
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.1
2.3
0.7
0.82
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0.49
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.24
0.25
0.28
0.26
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.78
4.67
4.65
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.45
4.9
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.5
3.3
2.4
2.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.2
2.7
2.5
1.58
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.2
0.10
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.7
-1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
0
2.9
2
2.03
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11.25
11.25
11.25
11.21
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.76
5.09
4.72
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.89
0.71
0.88
0.90
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.44
0.37
0.37
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.88
4.66
4.88
4.89
Medium
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.1
46.8
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
6.8
16
14
12.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
9.6
-9.9
-2.4
-1.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1.3
1.7
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
19.2
25.5
21.3
21.33
Low
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
214
211
207
207.00
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.2
52
51.4
50.85
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.5
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-1052.62
-762.3
-1000
-1039.54
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.4
3.3
3.1
3.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
4.242
0.63
1.4
0.55
Medium
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.62
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.25
0.46
0.25
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2.3
4.2
3.2
3.32
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
5.19
4.78
4.76
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
4.46
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.52
0.38
0.40
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.28
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.40
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.8
5.6
4.8
4.83
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-1
0.6
0.3
0.32
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
25.5
21.9
22.8
22.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.9
-1.5
0.3
0.35
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:10
MX
Auto Exports YoY
16
21.7
23
21.80
Low
14:10
MX
Auto Production YoY
-9.9
18.1
17.5
18.32
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
4.32
4.55
4.56
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.26
0.5
0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.09
5.3
5.15
5.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.64
0.61
0.63
Medium
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.8
47.3
48
48.43
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Private Spending Declines in Mexico by 0.40 Percent Year Over Year September 2025 Private Spending YoY Shows Slight Improvement Private Spending YoY measures the annual change in consumer and business expenditures, reflecting Mexico’s domestic demand strength. In September 2025, Mexico’s private spending contracted by 0.40%, improving from June’s 0.60% decline but falling short of the 0.20% forecast. The latest data highlights ongoing pressure on household consumption amid tighter monetary policy and elevated inflation. According to JPMorgan economists, “The modest rebound in Mexico’s private spending YoY suggests some stabilization, but persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on consumer activity.” The Bank of Mexico’s rate hikes have increased credit costs, dampening spending growth. Meanwhile, external factors such as weaker remittances and global uncertainties add to the subdued outlook. The MXN currency weakened slightly following the release, reflecting market caution. Overall, the data signals that Mexico’s private spending remains challenged, with recovery dependent on easing inflation and improved financial conditions.
The September 2025 private spending YoY print of -0.40% shows a modest rebound from June’s -0.60%, yet remains well below the 12-month average of 2.70% recorded between September 2023 and September 2024. This signals a persistent slowdown in consumer demand despite some stabilization.
Comparing monthly trends, private spending contracted by 0.60% in June 2025 and was flat in March 2025 at 0.40%. The downward trajectory since early 2025 reflects the cumulative impact of monetary tightening and external shocks.