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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Private Spending YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Mexico Private Spending YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from March's 2.2% reading. The reading missed the 3.0% consensus by 0.9%. Private Spending YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Private Spending YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
3
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 2.1
Error: +0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Private Spending YoY (Mexico) was reported at 2.1% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3% by 0.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.77%, up from the prior three at 0.13%. In September readings over the past 3 years, Private Spending YoY has averaged 1.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN). A secondary relationship exists with WTI Crude, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Private Spending YoY - MX
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About Private Spending YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Private Spending YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in consumer spending by individuals and households over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and consumer confidence, as well as the potential impact on businesses and industries. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers to gauge the strength of consumer demand and make informed decisions. A positive Private Spending YoY indicates an increase in consumer spending, while a negative reading suggests a decrease.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |