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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Real interest rate (%) climbed to 6.8 Percentage (%) in January 2023
World BankYearlyReleased January 2023
Mexico Real interest rate (%) climbed to 6.8 Percentage (%) in January 2023, up 5.17 Percentage (%) from December's 1.63 Percentage (%) reading.
Latest Release
6.80
Latest (2023)
1.63
Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Real Interest Rate (%) (Mexico) was reported at 3.97 Percent in December 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.21 Percent. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.93 Percent, up from the prior three at 1.15 Percent. In December readings over the past 3 years, Real Interest Rate (%) has averaged 5.93 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jul 30) and Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Real interest rate (%) - MX
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About Real interest rate (%) — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's Real Interest Rate fell sharply to 3.970981% in December 2025 from 7.206698% in December 2024, marking a significant decline. This drop signals a notable easing in real borrowing costs after a period of elevated rates. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and central bank moves for further guidance. Updated 7/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, July 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Balance of Trade | 4.09 | 2.259 | 2.28 | 4.04 | Medium |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |