The latest Retail Sales YoY data for Mexico, released on November 25, 2025, shows a robust 3.30% increase, surpassing both the consensus estimate of 1.80% and October’s 2.40% reading. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a strong consumer sector rebound after a volatile first half of the year marked by alternating contractions and expansions.

Drivers this month

• Increased consumer spending on durable goods and electronics.
• Improved labor market conditions supporting disposable income.
• Seasonal uplift from pre-holiday shopping cycles.

Policy pulse

Retail growth outpaces inflation targets, suggesting consumer resilience despite the Bank of Mexico’s recent rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. The 3.30% growth contrasts with the central bank’s inflation goal of 3%, indicating real purchasing power remains positive.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: MXN/USD strengthened by 0.40% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year Mexican government bond yields rose by 12 basis points, reflecting expectations of sustained monetary tightening amid strong domestic demand.

Retail sales are a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 60% of Mexico’s GDP. The 3.30% YoY growth in November 2025 contrasts with the 12-month average of 1.70% over the past year, signaling an acceleration in consumption.

Historical comparisons

• November 2025’s 3.30% is the highest since May 2025’s 4.30% peak.
• It reverses the negative prints seen in June (-2.00%) and April (-1.10%).
• The average growth over the last 12 months stands at 1.70%, underscoring recent strength.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The Bank of Mexico has raised interest rates by 150 basis points since mid-2025 to combat inflationary pressures. Despite tighter financial conditions, retail sales growth suggests that consumer credit remains accessible and wage growth supports spending.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal discipline remains tight, with limited stimulus measures. The government’s balanced budget approach constrains direct fiscal support to consumers, placing more emphasis on private sector dynamics to drive retail growth.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MXN currency appreciated sharply, reflecting investor confidence in Mexico’s consumption-driven growth. Short-term yields rose, pricing in potential further rate hikes by the central bank to manage inflation amid robust demand.

Looking ahead, Mexico’s retail sales growth faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The base case scenario projects moderate growth of 2.50% YoY over the next six months, supported by stable employment and moderate inflation. However, upside and downside scenarios remain plausible.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Stronger-than-expected wage growth and credit availability boost consumption to 4.00% YoY.
• Fiscal stimulus measures are introduced ahead of the 2026 elections.
• Global trade conditions improve, supporting consumer confidence.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Retail sales grow steadily at 2.50% YoY.
• Monetary policy remains cautious but accommodative.
• External shocks are contained, and inflation stabilizes near target.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions reduce consumer confidence.
• Inflation spikes force aggressive rate hikes, dampening spending.
• Fiscal austerity limits government support.

Structural & long-run trends

Mexico’s retail sector continues to evolve with increasing e-commerce penetration, now accounting for approximately 15% of total retail sales. Demographic shifts, including a growing middle class and urbanization, underpin long-term consumption growth despite short-term volatility.

In summary, Mexico’s November 2025 retail sales YoY growth of 3.30% signals a resilient consumer sector amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. While risks remain, the data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for domestic demand. Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, fiscal developments, and global risks closely to gauge the sustainability of this momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY

Mexico’s retail sales data is closely watched by currency, bond, and equity markets. The MXN currency typically strengthens on positive retail prints, while short-term bond yields adjust to inflation expectations. Equities in consumer discretionary sectors also respond to shifts in retail demand.

• MXNUSD – Directly impacted by retail sales strength, reflecting currency appreciation on positive data.
• MEXBOL – Mexico’s main equity index, sensitive to consumer sector performance.
• WALMEX.MX – Leading retail stock, correlates with retail sales trends.
• USDMXN – Inverse correlation with retail sales strength.
• BTCUSD – Crypto market sentiment occasionally shifts with macroeconomic data, including retail sales.

Extras: Retail Sales vs. WALMEX.MX Since 2020

A mini-chart comparing Mexico’s retail sales YoY growth with WALMEX.MX stock price since 2020 shows a strong positive correlation. Periods of retail sales acceleration coincide with upward trends in WALMEX.MX, highlighting the stock’s sensitivity to consumer spending dynamics. This relationship underscores the importance of retail sales data for equity investors focused on Mexican consumer sectors.

FAQs

What does the latest Mexico Retail Sales YoY figure indicate?

The 3.30% YoY growth in November 2025 indicates strong consumer spending and economic resilience despite monetary tightening.

How does retail sales growth affect Mexico’s monetary policy?

Robust retail sales may prompt the Bank of Mexico to maintain or increase interest rates to control inflation.

Why is retail sales data important for investors?

Retail sales reflect consumer demand, influencing currency strength, bond yields, and equity prices in Mexico.

Takeaway: Mexico’s retail sales rebound to 3.30% YoY in November 2025 highlights a resilient consumer sector, supporting a cautiously optimistic economic outlook amid tightening financial conditions and external risks.

Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team

Updated 11/25/25

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Mexico Retail Sales YoY, November 2025 release.
2. Bank of Mexico Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
3. INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía), Mexico Economic Indicators, 2025.
4. Bloomberg, Market Reaction Data, November 25, 2025.