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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Trade Balance fell to -2.4B in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
Mexico Trade Balance fell to -2.4B in September 2025, released October 2025, down 0.46B from August's -1.94B reading. The reading missed the -1.27B consensus by 1.13B. Trade Balance has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged -0.82B, vs 0.12B in the prior 3-month window. Trade Balance is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-2.4
Actual
-1.27
Consensus
-1.944
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.76 billion
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: -1.64
Actual: -2.4
Error: +0.76
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Mexico) was reported at -2.40 billion in October 2025. This missed the market consensus of -1.27 billion by 1.13 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.94 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1.35 billion, down from the prior three at 0.12 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Trade Balance - MX
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About Trade Balance — Mexico
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual -0.831 B. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 0.609 B. Before that (Jul 2025): 0.296 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.74) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |