The latest ANZ Business Confidence reading for New Zealand, released on November 27, 2025, registered at 67.10, significantly surpassing both the consensus estimate of 57.70 and October’s 58.10. This figure represents a strong rebound from mid-year lows near 36.60 in May and is the highest level recorded since February 2025 (58.40), according to the Sigmanomics database. The surge reflects improving business sentiment amid stabilizing inflation and resilient domestic demand.

Drivers this month

• Robust consumer spending boosted retail and services sectors.
• Improved export conditions due to a weaker NZD and steady demand from Australia and China.
• Reduced input cost pressures as global commodity prices eased.

Policy pulse

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%, signaling a pause after a series of hikes earlier in the year. This stance aligns with the business confidence uptick, as inflation trends moderate toward the 2% target. Financial conditions remain accommodative, supporting investment and hiring.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The NZD/USD pair appreciated by 0.40% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields held steady near 4.10%. Equity markets responded positively, with the NZX 50 index gaining 0.60%, reflecting improved risk appetite.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the ANZ Business Confidence reading show a mixed but generally positive backdrop. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 2.80% YoY, supported by strong household consumption and business investment. Inflation eased to 3.10% YoY in October, down from 3.80% in July, driven by lower fuel and food prices. Unemployment remains low at 3.40%, near historic lows, sustaining wage growth pressures.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The RBNZ’s steady OCR at 5.50% reflects confidence in inflation containment without derailing growth. Credit growth has accelerated modestly, with business lending up 4.20% YoY. The NZD’s recent appreciation has been tempered by global uncertainties, maintaining export competitiveness.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

New Zealand’s fiscal stance remains cautious. The 2025/26 budget projects a deficit of 2.50% of GDP, down from 3.10% last year, with targeted infrastructure spending and social programs. However, rising debt servicing costs amid higher global rates pose medium-term risks to fiscal flexibility.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global trade tensions and supply chain disruptions persist, particularly linked to China’s economic slowdown and geopolitical frictions in the Indo-Pacific. These factors inject uncertainty into export prospects and commodity prices, which could weigh on business confidence if prolonged.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: NZD/USD rose 0.40%, reflecting renewed optimism. The NZX 50 index gained 0.60%, while 2-year government bond yields remained stable at 4.10%, indicating balanced risk sentiment.

Looking ahead, the ANZ Business Confidence reading sets the stage for several scenarios over the next 6-12 months. The bullish case (40% probability) envisions sustained domestic demand, stable inflation near target, and accommodative monetary policy supporting continued growth above 3% GDP. This would likely boost employment and capital expenditure.

The base case (45% probability) assumes moderate growth around 2.50%, with inflation gradually easing and fiscal policy maintaining support but constrained by debt concerns. External risks, including global trade tensions and commodity price volatility, may cause periodic setbacks.

The bearish case (15% probability) involves a sharper global slowdown, renewed inflation spikes, or tighter monetary policy, leading to subdued business confidence and GDP growth below 2%. This scenario could trigger cautious hiring and investment freezes.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Longer-term, New Zealand faces structural challenges including an aging population, housing affordability, and climate transition costs. However, digital innovation and trade diversification efforts offer growth avenues. Business confidence gains this month may reflect early recognition of these shifts and adaptive strategies.

The November 2025 ANZ Business Confidence reading at 67.10 is a clear signal of renewed optimism among New Zealand businesses. This rebound from mid-year lows is supported by improving macro fundamentals and stable monetary policy. While external and fiscal risks remain, the overall outlook is constructive, suggesting a positive growth trajectory into 2026.

Market participants should monitor inflation trends, global trade developments, and fiscal policy adjustments closely, as these will shape the durability of this confidence upswing. The balance of risks calls for cautious optimism but leaves room for upside surprises if global conditions improve.

Key Markets Likely to React to ANZ Business Confidence

The ANZ Business Confidence index is a key barometer for New Zealand’s economic health, influencing currency, equity, and bond markets. Traders and investors closely watch this indicator for signals on domestic demand and policy direction. The following symbols historically track or react to shifts in this confidence measure:

• NZX50 – New Zealand’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to business sentiment changes.
• NZDUSD – The New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, reflecting trade and capital flows.
• AAPL – Apple Inc., a proxy for global tech demand impacting NZ exporters.
• AUDNZD – The Australian dollar/New Zealand dollar pair, sensitive to regional economic shifts.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, reflecting risk appetite and alternative investment flows that can influence NZ markets indirectly.

Insight: ANZ Business Confidence vs. NZDUSD Since 2020

Since 2020, the ANZ Business Confidence index and NZDUSD exchange rate have shown a positive correlation, particularly during economic recoveries and policy shifts. Periods of rising confidence often coincide with NZD appreciation, reflecting improved trade prospects and capital inflows. For example, the post-pandemic rebound in 2021 saw both metrics climb sharply. This relationship underscores the importance of business sentiment as a leading indicator for currency markets.

FAQs

What is the ANZ Business Confidence index?

The ANZ Business Confidence index measures the sentiment of New Zealand businesses regarding economic conditions, investment, and hiring plans. It is a key forward-looking economic indicator.

How does the ANZ Business Confidence affect monetary policy?

Strong business confidence can signal robust economic activity, influencing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decisions on interest rates to balance growth and inflation.

Why is the ANZ Business Confidence important for investors?

Investors use the index to gauge economic momentum, which impacts equity valuations, currency strength, and bond yields in New Zealand.

Final Takeaway: The November 2025 ANZ Business Confidence reading signals a meaningful recovery in New Zealand’s economic outlook, supported by stable policy and easing inflation, but tempered by external risks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/27/25