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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand ANZ Business Confidence climbed to 10 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence climbed to 10 in May 2026, up 20.6 from April's -10.6 reading. The print exceeded the -8 consensus by 18. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 47.83. Over the past 3 months, ANZ Business Confidence averaged 10.95, vs 65.63 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
10
Actual
-8
Consensus
-10.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.46
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -20.25
Actual: 10
Error: -30.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ANZ Business Confidence (New Zealand) was reported at 10.00 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -8.00 by 18.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -10.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.73, ranging from 10.00 to 73.60 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 33.90, down from the prior three at 68.27. Volatility over the past year (σ 16.84) is comparable than the prior year (σ 17.11). In May readings over the past 3 years, ANZ Business Confidence has averaged 19.27.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/JPY (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.46.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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ANZ Business Confidence - NZ
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About ANZ Business Confidence — New Zealand
DEFINITION
ANZ Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among businesses in Australia and New Zealand. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions in these countries. A positive ANZ Business Confidence reading indicates a strong and growing economy, while a negative reading suggests a potential slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact business decisions and overall market sentiment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 10, consensus -8. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -10.6. Before that (Mar 2026): 32.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/JPY (Bullish NZD, r=0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.