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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand ANZ Business Confidence fell to 53.7 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence fell to 53.7 in August 2026, down 2.4 from July's 56.1 reading. The reading matched the 55.7 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 45.5. Over the past 3 months, ANZ Business Confidence averaged 46.35, vs 10.63 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
53.7
Actual
55.7
Consensus
56.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.36
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 67.13
Actual: 53.7
Error: +13.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ANZ Business Confidence (New Zealand) was reported at 53.70 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 55.70 by 2.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 56.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.96, ranging from 10.00 to 73.60 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 48.80, up from the prior three at 33.90. Volatility over the past year (σ 17.39) is higher than the prior year (σ 8.38). In August readings over the past 3 years, ANZ Business Confidence has averaged 51.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/JPY (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.36.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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ANZ Business Confidence - NZ
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About ANZ Business Confidence — New Zealand
DEFINITION
ANZ Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among businesses in Australia and New Zealand. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions in these countries. A positive ANZ Business Confidence reading indicates a strong and growing economy, while a negative reading suggests a potential slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact business decisions and overall market sentiment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 53.7, consensus 55.7. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 56.1. Before that (Jun 2026): 36.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/JPY (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.57 | -2.56 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |