NZ Consumer Confidence Slides: ANZ Roy Morgan Index Drops to 100.1
New Zealand’s consumer sentiment retreated in January, with the ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index falling to 100.1. This marks a significant decline from December’s 107.2 reading and sits well below the consensus estimate of 106.5. The latest figure interrupts a brief recovery and returns the index to levels seen in late 2025.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Household finances: -0.7pp
- Economic outlook: -1.2pp
- Willingness to buy major items: -0.4pp
Policy pulse
The January reading of 100.1 stands just above the neutral 100 mark, but remains well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s comfort zone for robust consumption. The central bank has not set a formal target for this indicator, but persistent weakness may weigh on policy discussions.
Market lens
NZD softened modestly on the release, reflecting renewed caution in consumer sentiment. The sharp drop in confidence reversed December’s gains, with markets reassessing the strength of household demand. Local equities saw muted reaction, while bond yields edged lower as investors factored in subdued consumption trends.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
January’s 100.1 reading is the lowest since November 2025, when the index stood at 98.4. The 12-month average is 97.9, placing the current figure slightly above trend but well below the recent peak. Over the past six months, the index has ranged from a low of 92.0 in August 2025 to a high of 107.2 in December 2025.
Comparative figures
- December 2025: 107.2
- November 2025: 98.4
- October 2025: 92.4
- August 2025: 92.0
- 12-month average: 97.9
Methodology
The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index surveys a representative sample of New Zealand households, measuring perceptions of personal finances, economic outlook, and willingness to spend. Data is seasonally adjusted and released monthly.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Confidence rebounds above 105 if wage growth and employment data improve in coming months.
- Base case (50–60%): Index stabilizes near 100, reflecting ongoing household caution and modest economic growth.
- Bearish (15–25%): Further declines below 98 if cost-of-living pressures intensify or external shocks emerge.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include stronger labor market data and easing inflation. Downside risks stem from persistent cost pressures and global economic headwinds. The Reserve Bank’s policy stance remains a key variable for household sentiment.
Data source
Figures sourced from ANZ Roy Morgan and Sigmanomics database. Methodology: monthly survey, seasonally adjusted, representative sample.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
NZD’s muted response reflects market focus on broader economic signals. Investors are watching for confirmation from retail sales and labor market data before adjusting positions. The consumer confidence setback tempers optimism but does not signal a sharp downturn in activity.Policy pulse
With the index hovering near neutral, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to shift its stance based solely on this release. Policymakers will weigh upcoming inflation and employment figures for a fuller picture of household resilience.
Key Markets Reacting to ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
Movements in New Zealand’s consumer confidence index can ripple through multiple asset classes. Below are select tradable symbols from equities, forex, and crypto, each with a direct or indirect link to shifts in household sentiment. These instruments often reflect changes in domestic demand, risk appetite, and macroeconomic outlook.
- AAPL – Global consumer tech demand can be influenced by shifts in sentiment in key developed markets, including New Zealand.
- EURUSD – Major currency pairs often react to global risk sentiment, with NZ data contributing to broader market tone.
- BTCUSD – Crypto markets can see volatility as consumer confidence data shapes risk-taking behavior.
| Year | ANZ Roy Morgan Index | AAPL (YoY % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 98.2 | +80.7% |
| 2021 | 105.6 | +34.0% |
| 2022 | 99.4 | -26.8% |
| 2023 | 97.7 | +48.2% |
| 2024 | 96.8 | +48.5% |
Since 2020, AAPL’s annual performance has shown periods of strong correlation with shifts in consumer confidence, especially during major inflection points in the index.
FAQ
- What is the latest ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence reading for New Zealand?
- The January 2026 index fell to 100.1, down sharply from December’s 107.2, signaling renewed caution among New Zealand households.
- How does the recent drop in consumer confidence affect markets?
- NZD softened modestly, with local equities and bond yields showing limited reaction. Broader risk sentiment remains cautious.
- What factors contributed most to the January decline?
- Weaker household finances, a more pessimistic economic outlook, and reduced willingness to buy major items were the main contributors.
Consumer confidence’s sharp drop in January highlights persistent caution in New Zealand’s economic outlook.
Updated 2/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, NZ, Sigmanomics database, accessed 2/26/26.
- ANZ Roy Morgan official releases, anz.co.nz, accessed 2/26/26.
January’s print of 100.1 marks a steep decline from December’s 107.2 and falls below the 12-month average of 97.9. The index had climbed for two consecutive months before this reversal. The latest figure erases most of the gains made since November, when the index was 98.4.
Compared to six months ago, when the index was 98.8 in June 2025, current sentiment is only marginally higher. The sharpest drop in the past year occurred between December and January, underscoring the volatility in household confidence.