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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Business Confidence climbed to 48.0% in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2026
New Zealand Business Confidence climbed to 48.0% in October 2025, released January 2026, up 30.0% from September's 18.0% reading. The print exceeded the 16.0% consensus by 32.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 18.5%. Business Confidence is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
48
Actual
16
Consensus
18
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±21 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 16
Actual: 48
Error: -32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (New Zealand) was reported at -4% in April 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 48%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Business Confidence - NZ
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About Business Confidence — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -4 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 48 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 18 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.