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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Business Confidence climbed to 43.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
New Zealand Business Confidence climbed to 43.0% in July 2026, released October 2026, up 35.0% from June's 8.0% reading. The print exceeded the 15.0% consensus by 28.0%. Business Confidence has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
43
Actual
15
Consensus
8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±24.5 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 15
Actual: 43
Error: -28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (New Zealand) was reported at 43% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15% by 28%. The reading rose from the previous value of 8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Nov 3) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - NZ
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About Business Confidence — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 43 %, consensus 15 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | NZ | ANZ Business Confidence | 52.5 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 52.00 | Medium |
| 21:00 | NZ | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 96.2 | 97.6 | 97.4 | 96.80 | Low |