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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Business NZ PMI climbed to 56.5 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
New Zealand Business NZ PMI climbed to 56.5 in September 2026, released October 2026, up 3.2 from August's 53.3 reading. The reading matched the 54 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 52.49. Over the past 3 months, Business NZ PMI averaged 53.7, vs 50.2 in the prior 3-month window. Business NZ PMI is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
56.5
Actual
54
Consensus
53.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 52.75
Actual: 56.5
Error: -3.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business NZ PMI (New Zealand) was reported at 56.50 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 54.00 by 2.50. The reading rose from the previous value of 53.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.34, ranging from 49.90 to 56.50 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 54.63, up from the prior three at 51.80. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.29) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.06). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business NZ PMI has averaged 51.10.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Nov 3) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business NZ PMI - NZ
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About Business NZ PMI — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Business NZ PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector in New Zealand. It provides valuable insights into the current business conditions, including production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. This index is based on a survey of purchasing managers from various industries, making it a reliable and timely measure of the country's overall economic performance. The Business NZ PMI is a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the state of the New Zealand economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 56.5, consensus 54. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 53.1. Before that (Jul 2026): 54.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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