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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Business NZ PMI fell to 53.1 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
New Zealand Business NZ PMI fell to 53.1 in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1.2 from July's 54.3 reading. The reading matched the 54 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 3.2. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
53.1
Actual
54
Consensus
54.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 51.95
Actual: 53.1
Error: -1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business NZ PMI (New Zealand) was reported at 53.10 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 54.00 by 0.90. The reading fell from the previous value of 54.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.68, ranging from 49.90 to 56.10 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 52.43, down from the prior three at 53.57. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.23) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.17). In September readings over the past 3 years, Business NZ PMI has averaged 49.60.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business NZ PMI - NZ
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About Business NZ PMI — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Business NZ PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector in New Zealand. It provides valuable insights into the current business conditions, including production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. This index is based on a survey of purchasing managers from various industries, making it a reliable and timely measure of the country's overall economic performance. The Business NZ PMI is a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the state of the New Zealand economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 53.1, consensus 54. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 54.3. Before that (May 2026): 49.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.65 | -2.64 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |