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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Composite NZ PCI fell to 48.4 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
New Zealand Composite NZ PCI fell to 48.4 in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.8 from April's 49.2 reading. The reading matched the 48.5 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 4.1. Over the past 3 months, Composite NZ PCI averaged 49.1, vs 52.23 in the prior 3-month window. Composite NZ PCI is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
48.4
Actual
48.5
Consensus
49.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.25
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 49.8
Actual: 48.4
Error: +1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Composite NZ PCI (New Zealand) was reported at 48.40 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 48.50 by 0.10. The reading fell from the previous value of 49.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.97, ranging from 48.30 to 53.70 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 49.43, down from the prior three at 51.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.69) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.87). In June readings over the past 3 years, Composite NZ PCI has averaged 47.05.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.25.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Jun 16) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Composite NZ PCI - NZ
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About Composite NZ PCI — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Composite NZ PCI (Performance of Composite Index) is a key financial indicator that measures the overall performance of New Zealand's manufacturing and services sectors. It combines data from the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and Performance of Services Index (PSI) to provide a comprehensive view of the country's economic activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it reflects the health and growth potential of the New Zealand economy. A higher Composite NZ PCI indicates a strong and expanding economy, while a lower reading may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 48.4, consensus 48.5. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 49.4. Before that (Mar 2026): 48.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.52) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.