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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Composite NZ PCI held to 52.5 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
New Zealand Composite NZ PCI held to 52.5 in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading matched the 52.3 consensus. Composite NZ PCI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Composite NZ PCI averaged 53.1, vs 48.87 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
52.5
Actual
52.3
Consensus
52.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.16
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 53.13
Actual: 52.5
Error: +0.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Composite NZ PCI (New Zealand) was reported at 52.50 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 52.30 by 0.20. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.02, ranging from 48.40 to 53.70 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 52.90, up from the prior three at 49.43. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.91) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.12). In September readings over the past 3 years, Composite NZ PCI has averaged 48.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.16.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Composite NZ PCI - NZ
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About Composite NZ PCI — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Composite NZ PCI (Performance of Composite Index) is a key financial indicator that measures the overall performance of New Zealand's manufacturing and services sectors. It combines data from the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and Performance of Services Index (PSI) to provide a comprehensive view of the country's economic activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it reflects the health and growth potential of the New Zealand economy. A higher Composite NZ PCI indicates a strong and expanding economy, while a lower reading may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 52.5, consensus 52.3. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 52.6. Before that (Jun 2026): 53.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.76) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.57 | -2.56 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |