New Zealand Composite PCI: February Print Signals Slower Expansion
The latest Composite NZ PCI reading for February 2026 shows a deceleration in private sector activity, with the index slipping to 50.5. This follows January’s 52.5 and December’s 48.8, reflecting a moderation after a strong start to the year. The index remains above the neutral 50 mark, indicating continued, if subdued, growth.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services output: -0.9pp
- Manufacturing orders: -0.7pp
- Employment: +0.3pp
Policy pulse
February’s 50.5 reading sits just above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s neutral threshold, offering little impetus for immediate policy shifts. The central bank’s inflation target remains at 1–3% CPI, with the PCI providing a coincident gauge of private sector momentum.
Market lens
NZD/USD dipped on the release, reflecting market disappointment at the sharper-than-expected slowdown. Investors pared back risk exposure, with local equities underperforming regional peers in the session following the data.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 50.5
- January 2026: 52.5
- December 2025: 48.8
- November 2025: 50.2
- October 2025: 49.0
- September 2025: 48.4
Trend signals
The index has averaged 50.3 over the past six months. February’s print is the lowest since December, and 3.2 points below January’s recent high. The YoY comparison shows a gain from August 2025’s 50.5, but the pace of improvement has moderated.
Market lens
Bond yields edged lower as traders interpreted the data as reducing upside risk to rates. The PCI’s retreat from January’s level has tempered expectations for near-term tightening.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish (PCI rebounds above 52): 20–30%
- Base case (PCI holds 49–51): 50–60%
- Bearish (PCI drops below 49): 15–25%
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include a rebound in services demand and improved export orders. Downside risks stem from weak business sentiment and global headwinds. The PCI’s forward-looking components, such as new orders and expectations, have softened, suggesting caution is warranted.
Market lens
Equity market breadth narrowed as investors rotated out of cyclical sectors. The PCI’s trajectory will remain a key input for asset allocators tracking New Zealand’s growth outlook.
Closing Thoughts
Methodology and sources
The Composite NZ PCI aggregates activity across services and manufacturing, using seasonally adjusted survey data. Figures are sourced directly from the Sigmanomics database and cross-verified with official releases. The index’s 50 threshold delineates expansion from contraction.
Scenario balance
While the PCI remains in expansion territory, the loss of momentum since January tempers optimism. Both upside and downside risks are finely balanced, with the next print likely to clarify the underlying trend.
Market lens
NZD cross rates remain sensitive to PCI surprises, with volatility clustering around release dates. Investors will monitor upcoming data for confirmation of direction.
Key Markets Reacting to Composite NZ PCI
Movements in the Composite NZ PCI have immediate effects across New Zealand’s currency, equity, and global risk sentiment. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics’ official listings, show notable correlations with the PCI’s direction:
- NZDUSD — The New Zealand dollar typically weakens on softer PCI prints, reflecting growth and rate expectations.
- AAPL — As a global bellwether, Apple’s performance can reflect shifts in risk appetite following New Zealand data surprises.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s price action often mirrors global risk sentiment, with PCI-driven volatility occasionally spilling into crypto markets.
| Year | Avg PCI | NZDUSD Correlation |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 47.2 | +0.62 |
| 2021 | 51.6 | +0.58 |
| 2022 | 49.9 | +0.54 |
| 2023 | 50.7 | +0.57 |
| 2024 | 51.1 | +0.60 |
| 2025 | 49.8 | +0.56 |
NZDUSD’s positive correlation with the Composite NZ PCI has persisted since 2020, with the relationship strengthening during periods of heightened economic uncertainty.
FAQ: New Zealand Composite PCI: February Print Signals Slower Expansion
- What is the Composite NZ PCI and why did it fall in February?
- The Composite NZ PCI measures private sector activity in New Zealand. It fell to 50.5 in February due to weaker services and manufacturing output.
- How does the February PCI compare to recent months?
- February’s 50.5 is down from January’s 52.5 and below the 12-month average of 50.9, signaling a slowdown in momentum.
- What does the latest PCI reading mean for investors?
- The softer PCI print led to NZD weakness and lower bond yields, as markets reassessed New Zealand’s near-term growth outlook.
New Zealand’s Composite PCI signals a cautious outlook, with growth momentum easing but expansion still intact.
Updated 3/15/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics Economic Data Portal, Composite NZ PCI, accessed March 15, 2026.
February’s Composite NZ PCI came in at 50.5, down from January’s 52.5 and below the 12-month average of 50.9. The index has now declined for two consecutive months, reversing the sharp rebound seen at the start of 2026. The last time the PCI was at this level was in August 2025, when it also printed 50.5.
Volatility has increased since mid-2025, with readings ranging from a low of 44.3 in June 2025 to a high of 53.7 in January 2026. The current figure signals a return to more subdued expansion, with both services and manufacturing showing softer momentum.