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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Credit Card Spending YoY fell to 3.5% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
New Zealand Credit Card Spending YoY fell to 3.5% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1.8% from July's 5.3% reading. The reading missed the 5.5% consensus by 2.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.84%. The reading is in the 87th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
5.5
Consensus
5.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.83 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.5
Actual: 3.5
Error: +2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Credit Card Spending YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 3.5% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.5% by 2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.86%, ranging from -1.1% to 5.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.9%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.04%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.92%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Credit Card Spending YoY has averaged 1.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.83%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business NZ PMI (Oct 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Oct 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Credit Card Spending YoY - NZ
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About Credit Card Spending YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Credit Card Spending YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of money spent using credit cards over a specific period of time, typically compared to the same period in the previous year. This metric is used by businesses and financial institutions to track consumer spending habits and assess the overall health of the economy. A positive YoY increase in credit card spending may indicate a growing economy, while a negative change could suggest a decrease in consumer confidence and potential economic downturn.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 5.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.06 | 3.009 | 3.01 | Low | |
| 21:45 | NZ | Visitor Arrivals YoY | 8.5 | 4.3 | 5.40 | Low | |