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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM climbed to -0.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM climbed to -0.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from August's -0.9% reading. The print exceeded the -0.6% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.17%. Over the past 3 months, Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM averaged 0.2%, vs -0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-0.6
Consensus
-0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.18
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM (New Zealand) was reported at -0.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.6% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.07%, ranging from -1.4% to 1.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0%, up from the prior three at -0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.17%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.85%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM has averaged -0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Nov 3) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM - NZ
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About Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM is a financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the amount of money spent using electronic retail cards. This includes purchases made using credit, debit, and prepaid cards at various retail establishments. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending habits and trends, as well as the overall health of the retail sector. It is often used by economists and analysts to assess the current state of the economy and make predictions for future economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus -0.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | NZ | ANZ Business Confidence | 52.5 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 52.00 | Medium |
| 21:00 | NZ | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 96.2 | 97.6 | 97.4 | 96.80 | Low |