New Zealand’s Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM rose 0.20%, missing the 0.40% estimate but rebounding from October’s -0.50% contraction. This modest 0.70 percentage point improvement signals cautious expansion in consumer spending amid tightening monetary policy. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to maintain a cautious tightening stance as retail demand stabilizes but remains vulnerable. Updated 11/13/25
Electronic Retail Card Spending Mom - NZ
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Listen to: New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM: November 2025 Analysis
Key Takeaways: November’s electronic retail card spending in New Zealand rose 0.20% MoM, rebounding from October’s -0.50% decline but falling short of the 0.40% consensus. This modest growth contrasts with the 12-month average of 0.18%, signaling cautious consumer behavior amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. The data suggests a fragile but stable retail environment, with implications for inflation, fiscal planning, and market sentiment heading into 2026.
New Zealand’s electronic retail card spending rose 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) in November 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a rebound from October’s sharp -0.50% contraction but remains below the 0.40% market estimate. Over the past year, the average monthly growth rate has been 0.18%, indicating a generally subdued but positive retail spending environment.
Drivers this month
Increased spending on essentials and groceries offset weaker discretionary purchases.
Seasonal promotions ahead of the holiday season provided a mild boost.
Consumer caution persists amid rising borrowing costs and inflationary pressures.
Policy pulse
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) recent interest rate hikes have tightened financial conditions, dampening consumer credit growth. The 0.20% rise in card spending is consistent with the central bank’s goal to moderate demand and curb inflation, which remains above the 2% target.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The NZD/USD currency pair strengthened by 0.30% in the hour following the data release, reflecting relief that the spending decline was less severe than expected. Short-term government bond yields edged slightly higher, pricing in continued RBNZ tightening.
Electronic retail card spending is a key real-time proxy for consumer demand, which drives roughly 60% of New Zealand’s GDP. The 0.20% MoM increase in November follows a volatile 2025, where spending fluctuated between -0.50% and 0.70% monthly. The previous three months showed a mixed pattern: 0.70% in September, 0.20% in August, and -0.50% in October.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The RBNZ has raised the official cash rate (OCR) by 125 basis points since mid-2025, aiming to tame inflation that peaked near 6% YoY earlier this year. Higher borrowing costs have slowed mortgage approvals and consumer credit growth, directly impacting retail spending patterns.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Government fiscal stimulus has tapered, with the 2025 budget focusing on deficit reduction and targeted social spending. Reduced fiscal support limits disposable income growth, constraining retail demand despite steady employment levels near 4% unemployment.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region have increased import costs, feeding into retail prices and consumer caution. The NZ economy’s exposure to China and Australia trade dynamics remains a key risk factor.
November’s 0.20% MoM growth in electronic retail card spending is a moderate improvement from October’s -0.50%, yet below the 0.40% consensus and slightly above the 12-month average of 0.18%. This suggests a tentative recovery after a brief contraction, with spending levels stabilizing but not accelerating.
Key figure: The 0.70% spike in September remains the highest monthly gain in the past six months, highlighting volatility in consumer behavior amid shifting economic conditions.
Comparing the current print with the past year, the spending pattern shows a series of ups and downs, reflecting consumer sensitivity to interest rate changes and inflationary pressures. The October dip was the sharpest monthly decline since mid-2025, making November’s rebound critical for maintaining positive momentum.
This chart reveals a retail spending trend that is stabilizing after recent volatility. The upward movement in November signals cautious consumer confidence but also highlights the fragility of demand under tightening financial conditions and external uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: NZD/USD rose 0.30% post-release, reflecting market relief. The 2-year government bond yield increased by 5 basis points, indicating expectations of continued RBNZ tightening. Retail sector equities showed mild gains, signaling investor optimism about consumer resilience.
Looking ahead, electronic retail card spending in New Zealand faces a complex outlook shaped by monetary policy, fiscal constraints, and external risks. Consumer demand is expected to remain subdued but positive, with three main scenarios emerging:
Bullish Scenario (20% probability)
Inflation eases faster than expected, allowing RBNZ to pause rate hikes.
The RBNZ’s next moves will be critical. If spending remains weak, the bank may slow rate hikes, but persistent inflation could force further tightening. Fiscal policy adjustments could provide a buffer or exacerbate pressures depending on government priorities.
November’s electronic retail card spending data from the Sigmanomics database highlights a cautious consumer environment in New Zealand. The modest 0.20% MoM increase signals resilience but also vulnerability amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. Retail spending remains a vital barometer for the economy’s health, influencing inflation trajectories, fiscal planning, and financial market sentiment.
Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming data releases closely, as shifts in consumer behavior will inform the RBNZ’s policy stance and government budget decisions. The balance of risks leans toward continued moderation in retail demand, but upside surprises remain possible if inflation eases and fiscal support improves.
Overall, the retail card spending trend suggests a slow but steady path forward for New Zealand’s economy, with key risks centered on inflation persistence and global geopolitical developments.
Key Markets Likely to React to Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
Electronic retail card spending is a leading indicator of consumer demand, which directly influences New Zealand’s currency, bond yields, and retail sector equities. Market participants closely watch this data for clues on monetary policy direction and economic momentum. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with retail spending trends and are likely to react to future releases:
NZDUSD – The New Zealand dollar’s primary pair, sensitive to domestic economic data and RBNZ policy.
NZX50 – New Zealand’s main equity index, reflecting retail and consumer sector performance.
AUDNZD – Cross-currency pair influenced by relative economic strength between Australia and New Zealand.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to risk sentiment shifts driven by economic data.
ASX200 – Australia’s benchmark index, correlated with NZ retail trends due to regional economic ties.
Insight: Electronic Retail Card Spending vs. NZDUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, monthly changes in New Zealand’s electronic retail card spending have shown a positive correlation (~0.65) with NZDUSD movements. Periods of rising retail spending often coincide with NZD appreciation, reflecting improved economic outlook and expectations of tighter monetary policy. For example, the 0.70% spike in September 2025 aligned with a 1.20% NZDUSD gain, while the October 2025 spending drop preceded a 0.80% NZD decline. This relationship underscores the importance of retail data in FX market positioning.
FAQs
What is the significance of New Zealand’s Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM?
Electronic retail card spending MoM measures monthly changes in consumer spending via cards, serving as a timely indicator of retail demand and economic health.
How does this data affect New Zealand’s monetary policy?
Stronger retail spending can prompt the RBNZ to tighten policy to control inflation, while weaker spending may encourage a pause or easing in rate hikes.
What are the risks to New Zealand’s retail spending outlook?
Risks include persistent inflation, higher interest rates, fiscal tightening, and external shocks such as geopolitical tensions impacting trade and prices.
Takeaway: November’s 0.20% rise in electronic retail card spending signals cautious consumer resilience amid tightening monetary policy and external risks, setting a delicate stage for New Zealand’s economic trajectory into 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - NZ Events
Sunday, December 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.25
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
47.9
46.2
46.8
46.38
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
49.5
46
46.5
46.52
Low
Thursday, December 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
6.3
0.9
1.2
1.50
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.5
45.8
46.2
45.87
Medium
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-2.3
-1.1
-0.5
-1.17
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0
0.7
0.4
0.40
Low
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-1.6
-2.8
2.2
-0.55
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
2.4
2.1
1.8
-2.08
Low
21:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
0.7
5.2
1.4
1.38
Low
21:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
-1.7
3.1
-0.6
-1.47
Low
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-5.2
2.4
1.7
1.50
Low
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
99.8
91.2
94
92.85
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
64.9
65.7
66
70.58
Medium
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
4.25
4.75
4.25
4.21
Medium
Sunday, November 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-2.5
-3.6
2
-0.28
High
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-0.1
-1.2
0.6
0.58
High
21:45
NZ
Imports
7.31
7.06
7.2
7.20
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-1.544
-2.154
-2
-2.45
Medium
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.77
4.91
5.1
4.92
Low
Sunday, November 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
1.5
1.1
0.9
1.15
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
1.9
1.4
1
1.32
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.2
46.4
47.3
46.88
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
46
45.7
47
47.02
Low
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.8
46.9
47.5
47.17
Medium
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.35
Low
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
0.9
3.6
3.3
3.60
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-1.1
-5.6
-4.8
-5.47
Low
02:30
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.1
2
2
2.08
Low
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.42
Low
21:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.2
71.7
71.5
71.45
Low
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.70
Low
21:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.8
4.6
5
4.97
High
21:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.40
High
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
2.6
-5.2
-1.6
-1.80
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
65.7
60.9
55
59.58
Medium
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
91.2
95.1
98
96.85
Low
Monday, October 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
7.12
7.15
7.1
7.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-2.108
-2.306
-1
-1.45
Medium
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.01
4.85
6.1
5.92
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.65
Medium
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
3.3
2.2
2.12
Low
Sunday, October 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0
0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-5.6
-2.9
0.3
-0.37
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.4
45.8
48.9
48.48
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
45.7
45.7
47.6
47.62
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.2
0.4
1.7
1.55
Low
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.6
3.8
4.5
4.80
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
46.9
45.8
46.5
46.17
Medium
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
4.75
5.25
4.75
4.71
Medium
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-5.3
26.4
-6.8
-7.00
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-1
-44
-34
-39.67
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
89.1
88.7
90.5
89.50
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
60.9
50.6
43
47.58
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
95.1
92.2
101
99.85
Low
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
7.17
7.1
7.3
7.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
4.97
6.09
5.6
5.42
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-2.203
-0.963
-0.155
-0.60
Medium
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.37
Medium
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.55
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Current Account
-4.83
-4.36
-4
-4.11
Medium
21:00
NZ
Westpac Consumer Confidence
90.8
82.2
85
87.00
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.8
44.4
47
46.67
Medium
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0.2
-0.1
-1.1
-1.10
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-2.9
-4.9
-1.1
-1.77
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.4
0.6
1
0.85
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.8
3.8
2
2.30
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-3
-2
3
0.25
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
3.1
-5.1
0.5
-0.37
Low
22:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
2.1
5.1
28
24.12
Low
22:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
5.2
-0.3
2.8
2.78
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
26.2
-17
-1.9
-2.10
Low
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
92.2
87.9
88.5
87.35
Low
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
50.6
27.1
20
24.58
Medium
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-3.6
-2.4
1.7
-0.58
High
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-1.2
0.4
-1
-1.02
High
Monday, August 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
7.11
5.45
6
6.00
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.963
0.585
0.331
-0.12
Medium
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.15
6.04
5.5
5.33
Low
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
44.6
40.7
40.9
40.92
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
44.3
40.9
41.3
40.88
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
PPI Output
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
1.4
0.7
0.5
0.82
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.85
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
44
41.1
42.5
42.17
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.1
-0.7
-0.2
-0.20
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.6
-0.3
-0.5
-0.65
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-4.9
-4.9
-5.3
-5.97
Low
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.25
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.8
12.1
9.1
9.40
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2
2.3
1.9
1.98
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.7
71.5
71.3
71.25
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.52
Low
22:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.20
High
22:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.7
4.67
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
27.1
6.1
4.5
9.08
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-13.8
-1.9
1.2
1.00
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
87.9
83.2
83.2
82.05
Low
Sunday, July 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.699
0.054
0.294
-0.16
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
5.47
6.94
7.5
7.50
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.17
7
6.5
6.33
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.55
Medium
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
4
3.5
3.42
Low
Sunday, July 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
40.9
44.7
43.8
43.38
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
40.2
43
42.8
42.82
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.6
-1.2
0.5
0.50
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-4.9
-1.6
-2
-2.67
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
41.1
47.2
46.8
46.47
Medium
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.45
Low
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
12.1
1.7
2
2.30
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-1.7
-2.1
-1.3
-1.50
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
88.7
90.2
92
91.00
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-44
-25
-7
-12.67
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
6.1
11.2
10.2
14.78
Medium
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
83
84.9
84.2
83.05
Low
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:10
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
0
-0.8
0.4
-0.18
Low
Sunday, June 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
6.95
6.32
6.2
6.20
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
7.16
6.31
6.5
6.33
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.204
-0.003
0.155
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.15
High
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
-0.1
0
0.03
Medium
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Current Account
-4.36
-7.84
-4.55
-4.66
Low
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
43
46.6
47.5
47.52
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
44.7
47.3
48
47.58
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.2
0.8
0.7
0.55
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.2
48.9
49.2
48.87
Medium
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-1.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-1.6
-3.8
-3
-3.67
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
1.7
27.9
48
48.30
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-2.2
-3.4
4.5
1.75
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
-0.3
-4.2
1.5
1.48
Low
22:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
-5.1
3.8
1.6
0.73
Low
22:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
5.1
-7.8
3.1
-0.78
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-0.2
1.5
1.30
Low
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
11.2
14.9
15
19.58
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.42
6.38
6.8
6.63
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.091
0.476
0.7
0.25
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
6.32
5.9
6.1
6.10
Low
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
84.9
82.1
80
78.85
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-2.4
-4.1
1.5
-0.78
High
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
0.5
-1.9
-0.3
-0.32
High
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
-0.6
-0.6
1.8
1.22
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.75
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.92
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Output
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.70
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
27.9
35
40
40.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.4
-0.7
1
1.00
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-3.8
-2.3
-3.2
-3.87
Low
03:00
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.3
2.5
2
2.08
Low
Sunday, May 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.8
0.7
1
0.85
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
47.1
47.2
49.1
49.12
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
47.6
46.6
48.7
48.28
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
48.9
47.1
48.5
48.17
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.82
Low
22:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.30
High
22:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.5
71.9
71.9
71.85
Low
22:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4
4.2
4.17
High
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
14.9
22.9
24
28.58
Medium
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
82.1
86.4
89
87.85
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.588
-0.315
-0.505
-0.96
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
5.91
6.1
7.3
7.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.5
5.79
6.5
6.33
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
1.4
2.1
2.1
1.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.55
Medium
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.7
4.3
4.22
Low
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
35
21.7
23
23.30
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
47.5
52.6
53.4
53.42
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.8
50.9
52.6
52.18
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-3
2.5
2.8
2.13
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.7
2.1
1.8
1.65
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.7
-2
0.9
0.90
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.1
49.3
50
49.67
Medium
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-25
-2
5
-0.67
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
90.2
91.4
91.5
90.50
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
14.9
-8.6
4.1
3.90
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
22.9
34.7
34
38.58
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
86.4
94.5
97
95.85
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
6.11
5.9
5.5
5.50
Low
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.89
4.82
4.7
4.53
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.218
-1.089
-0.8
-1.25
Medium
02:10
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
2.2
0
0.8
0.22
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.13
Medium
21:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Current Account
-7.837
-11.465
-7.8
-7.91
Medium
20:00
NZ
Westpac Consumer Confidence
93.2
88.9
91
93.00
Low
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
51.3
50.2
51.1
50.68
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
53
52.2
52.9
52.92
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
49.3
47.5
48.1
47.77
Medium
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
21.7
14.8
20
20.30
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
2.1
4
3.4
3.25
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
2.5
1.6
1.1
0.43
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-1.8
2
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-3.4
-6.7
-1.6
-4.35
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
-7.8
-0.6
-0.2
-4.08
Low
21:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
-4.2
-1.4
-0.4
-0.42
Low
21:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
3.8
-0.9
-0.2
-1.07
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-8.8
3.6
1.8
1.60
Low
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
94.5
93.6
96
94.85
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
34.7
36.6
38
42.58
Medium
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-1.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.42
High
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-4.1
-3.4
-3.6
-5.88
High
02:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
-0.3
4.3
4.5
3.92
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
5.91
6.22
5.9
5.90
Low
21:45
NZ
Exports
4.93
5.85
5.1
4.92
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.976
-0.368
-0.2
-0.65
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.65
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
0.9
1.2
0.4
0.72
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Output
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.60
Low
14:40
NZ
Global Dairy Trade Price Index
0.5
4.2
-1
0.68
Low
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
50
46.9
47.7
47.28
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
52.1
48.8
49.6
49.62
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.3
43.1
45.3
44.97
Medium
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
14.8
30.4
41.5
41.80
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
4
4.8
4.4
4.25
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
1.7
-1.7
0.9
0.90
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
1.6
-0.6
-1
-1.67
Low
02:30
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.5
2.76
2.6
2.68
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.9
72
72
71.95
Low
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
1
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
21:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.30
High
21:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4
3.9
4.2
4.17
High
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.9
4.1
3.8
3.82
Low
15:00
NZ
Global Dairy Trade Price Index
4.2
2.3
-1
0.68
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
3.7
-10.6
6.2
6.00
Low
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
93.6
93.1
94
92.85
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
36.6
33.2
30
34.58
Medium
Sunday, January 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.94
5.95
6.1
5.92
Low
21:45
NZ
Imports
6.26
7.2
6.7
6.70
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.323
-1.25
-0.6
-1.05
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
4.3
3.3
3.6
3.02
Low
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
CPI
1259
1253
1259
1259.00
High
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
4.7
5.6
4.7
4.62
Low
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.5
1.8
0.5
0.45
Medium
Monday, January 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
48.8
51.1
51.5
51.52
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.8
49
49.6
49.18
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
30.4
39.8
25
25.30
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
43.1
46.7
47.8
47.47
Medium
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
4.8
6
5.7
5.55
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-2
1.7
0.3
0.30
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-0.6
2.1
2.5
1.83
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-2
-52
-40
-45.67
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
91.4
87.3
87.5
86.50
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-10.6
8.5
2
1.80
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Electronic Retail Card Spending NZ Rises Modestly in November 2025 November 2025 Electronic Retail Card Spending NZ Overview Electronic retail card spending in New Zealand measures monthly changes in consumer purchases made via debit and credit cards at retail outlets, providing a timely snapshot of consumer demand. In November 2025, electronic retail card spending NZ increased by 0.20% compared to October, rebounding from the prior month’s 0.50% decline but falling short of the 0.40% forecast. Year-over-year growth remains subdued, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid rising interest rates and inflation pressures. JPMorgan economists note that this modest rise aligns with expectations given the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent monetary tightening, which aims to moderate demand without triggering a sharp slowdown. The data suggests a fragile but steady retail environment as consumers balance essential spending with uncertainty over economic conditions. Market watchers will closely monitor upcoming releases for signs of sustained momentum or further softness in electronic retail card spending NZ heading into 2026.
November’s 0.20% MoM growth in electronic retail card spending is a moderate improvement from October’s -0.50%, yet below the 0.40% consensus and slightly above the 12-month average of 0.18%. This suggests a tentative recovery after a brief contraction, with spending levels stabilizing but not accelerating.
Key figure: The 0.70% spike in September remains the highest monthly gain in the past six months, highlighting volatility in consumer behavior amid shifting economic conditions.