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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY fell to 1.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY fell to 1.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 2.0% from May's 3.3% reading. The reading missed the 3.6% consensus by 2.3%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.7%. Over the past 3 months, Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY averaged 2.67%, vs 0.95% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
3.6
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.7
Actual: 1.3
Error: +2.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 1.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.6% by 2.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.45%, ranging from 0.4% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.2%, up from the prior three at 1.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.77%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.94%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY has averaged -1.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY - NZ
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About Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of money spent using electronic retail cards, such as credit or debit cards, for retail purchases. This metric provides valuable insights into consumer spending habits and trends in the retail sector, making it a useful tool for businesses and investors to track and analyze. A positive YoY change indicates an increase in consumer spending, while a negative change suggests a decrease. Overall, this indicator can help inform financial decisions and strategies related to the retail industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |