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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Food Inflation YoY fell to 2.5% in June 2026
Stats NZMonthlyReleased July 2026
New Zealand Food Inflation YoY fell to 2.5% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.7% from May's 3.2% reading. The reading missed the 3.0% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.18%. Over the past 3 months, Food Inflation YoY averaged 2.9%, vs 4.17% in the prior 3-month window. Food Inflation YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
3
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.44 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Food Inflation YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 2.5% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.05%, ranging from 2.5% to 5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.77%, down from the prior three at 4.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.86%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.4%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Food Inflation YoY has averaged 2.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.44%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Food Inflation YoY - NZ
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About Food Inflation YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Food Inflation YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of food items over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall trend of food prices and can help businesses and consumers anticipate potential changes in their food expenses. This indicator is commonly used by economists and policymakers to monitor the impact of food prices on inflation and to make informed decisions regarding monetary and fiscal policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |