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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Food Inflation YoY climbed to 3.2% in May 2026
Stats NZMonthlyReleased June 2026
New Zealand Food Inflation YoY climbed to 3.2% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.6% from April's 2.6% reading. The print exceeded the 2.7% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.27%. Over the past 3 months, Food Inflation YoY averaged 3.0%, vs 4.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.05
Actual: 3.2
Error: -1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Food Inflation YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 3.2% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.26%, ranging from 2.6% to 5% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.43%, down from the prior three at 4.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.68%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.19%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Food Inflation YoY has averaged 2.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Jun 16) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Food Inflation YoY - NZ
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About Food Inflation YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Food Inflation YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of food items over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall trend of food prices and can help businesses and consumers anticipate potential changes in their food expenses. This indicator is commonly used by economists and policymakers to monitor the impact of food prices on inflation and to make informed decisions regarding monetary and fiscal policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.