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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q4 2025
Stats NZQuarterlyReleased March 2026
New Zealand GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q4 2025, released March 2026, down 0.9% from September's 1.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.4% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.04%.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.4
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (New Zealand) was reported at 0.2% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.13%, down from the prior three at 0.17%. In March readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate YoY (Jun 17) and Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - NZ
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 1.1 %. Before that (Apr 2025): -0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.