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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 1.3% in October 2025
Stats NZQuarterlyReleased March 2026
New Zealand GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 1.3% in October 2025, released March 2026. The reading missed the 1.7% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.21%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 27 months.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.7
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 1.7
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 1.3% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.7% by 0.4%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.67%, up from the prior three at -1.1%. In March readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged -0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17) and Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - NZ
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 1.3 %. Before that (Apr 2025): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.