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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 1.5% in January 2026
Stats NZQuarterlyReleased June 2026
New Zealand GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 1.5% in January 2026, released June 2026. The print exceeded the 1.1% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.13%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 30 months.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.1
Actual: 1.5
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 1.5% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.1% by 0.4%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.37%, up from the prior three at -0.8%. In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - NZ
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.5 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1.3 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.65 | -2.64 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |