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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q4 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
New Zealand Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q4 2025, released March 2026, down 0.7% from September's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.45%.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (New Zealand) was reported at 0.2% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Jun 16) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - NZ
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — New Zealand
DEFINITION
New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 0.100000% in February, sharply down from January’s 0.900000%. This marks the weakest quarterly growth since September’s -0.9%, signaling a clear loss of momentum despite support from services and construction. The subdued pace reduces immediate pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with markets now focused on upcoming inflation and labor data. Updated 3/18/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 1.3 %. Before that (Apr 2025): -0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.