New Zealand’s import prices increased by 0.50% quarter-on-quarter in December 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This contrasts sharply with the prior quarter’s 3.70% decline and outperforms the consensus estimate of -4.00%. The reversal suggests easing cost pressures on imported goods after a turbulent year marked by swings between steep declines and sharp rises.

Drivers this month

• Commodity prices stabilized globally, reducing import cost volatility.
• NZD appreciation against major trading partners helped moderate price rises.
• Supply chain disruptions eased, particularly in electronics and machinery sectors.

Policy pulse

The 0.50% rise remains below the 12-month average volatility but signals a potential uptick in imported inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a hawkish stance, with the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.50%, aiming to curb inflationary pressures. Import price stabilization supports the central bank’s narrative of easing external inflation shocks but warrants close monitoring.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The NZD/USD pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields held steady near 4.10%. Market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, pricing in a moderated inflation outlook without derailing tightening expectations.

Import prices are a critical input for New Zealand’s inflation trajectory, influencing consumer prices and business costs. The 0.50% QoQ rise in December 2025 follows a volatile pattern over the past two years, with swings from -5.10% in June 2024 to 5.10% in June 2025. The 12-month average change stands near 0.30%, underscoring the recent quarter’s moderation.

Historical comparisons

• December 2024: -1.70% QoQ decline, reflecting global commodity price softness.
• September 2025: -3.70% QoQ drop amid supply chain disruptions and currency weakness.
• March 2024: 3.80% QoQ rise, driven by energy and raw material price spikes.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The RBNZ’s tightening cycle since mid-2024 has aimed to anchor inflation expectations. Stable import prices reduce upside inflation risks but do not eliminate them. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit spreads stable and mortgage rates elevated, limiting domestic demand pressures.

Fiscal policy & government budget

New Zealand’s fiscal stance remains mildly expansionary, with ongoing infrastructure spending and social support programs. This backdrop supports domestic demand, potentially offsetting import price moderation. The government’s budget deficit is projected at 2.50% of GDP for FY2025, consistent with prior years.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices stabilized after mid-year spikes.
• Improved shipping and logistics reduced cost premiums.
• NZD appreciation against USD and AUD mitigated import price inflation.

Policy pulse

The import price rebound supports the RBNZ’s view that imported inflation pressures are easing, but the persistence of volatility warrants vigilance. The central bank’s inflation target of 1-3% remains the anchor for policy decisions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: NZD/USD rose 0.30%, reflecting relief on inflation concerns. Short-term bond yields remained stable, indicating no immediate shift in monetary policy expectations.

Looking ahead, import prices in New Zealand face a complex set of influences. The baseline forecast assumes continued global commodity price stability and a moderately strong NZD, projecting import prices to rise 0.30-0.70% QoQ over the next two quarters.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Global supply chains fully normalize, reducing cost pressures.
• NZD strengthens further, lowering import costs.
• Import prices decline or remain flat, easing inflation risks.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Import prices rise modestly 0.30-0.70% QoQ, reflecting stable commodity prices.
• Monetary policy remains steady, balancing inflation and growth.
• Fiscal policy continues to support domestic demand moderately.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, pushing import prices up >1.00% QoQ.
• NZD weakens due to global risk-off, increasing import costs.
• Imported inflation feeds into broader price pressures, complicating RBNZ’s tightening path.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Risks remain from potential escalation in Asia-Pacific geopolitical tensions and renewed global trade disruptions. These could trigger supply bottlenecks and price spikes, reversing recent moderation.

New Zealand’s December 2025 import prices data signals a tentative easing of imported inflation pressures after a volatile period. The 0.50% QoQ rise beats expectations and suggests stabilization, supporting the RBNZ’s cautious tightening stance. However, ongoing global uncertainties and currency fluctuations require vigilance. Fiscal policy remains supportive, while financial markets have priced in a balanced outlook. Structural trends such as commodity price cycles and supply chain resilience will continue shaping import price dynamics in the medium term.

Key Markets Likely to React to Import Prices QoQ

Import prices directly influence New Zealand’s inflation outlook and currency valuation. Markets sensitive to inflation and trade dynamics will react to these data releases. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with import price movements, reflecting currency strength, commodity exposure, and financial market sentiment.

• NZDUSD – The New Zealand dollar’s exchange rate against the US dollar closely tracks import price shifts, reflecting trade balance and inflation expectations.
• NZX50 – New Zealand’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to economic growth and import cost pressures affecting corporate earnings.
• AUDNZD – The Australian dollar/New Zealand dollar pair reflects regional trade dynamics and commodity price impacts on import costs.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to risk sentiment shifts triggered by inflation data and monetary policy outlooks.
• ASX200 – Australia’s stock index, linked to commodity prices and regional trade flows influencing NZ import prices.

FAQs

What is the significance of New Zealand’s Import Prices QoQ data?

The Import Prices QoQ data measures changes in the cost of imported goods, impacting inflation and monetary policy decisions.

How does import price volatility affect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy?

Volatile import prices influence inflation expectations, guiding the RBNZ’s interest rate adjustments to maintain price stability.

What are the main risks to New Zealand’s import prices outlook?

Risks include global supply chain disruptions, commodity price shocks, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions.

Key takeaway: The December 2025 import prices rebound signals easing external inflation pressures but requires close monitoring amid global uncertainties and monetary tightening.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.