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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Inflation Expectations fell to 2.34% in July 2026
Stats NZMonthlyReleased August 2026
New Zealand Inflation Expectations fell to 2.34% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.19% from June's 2.53% reading. The reading missed the 2.7% consensus by 0.36%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.06%. Inflation Expectations is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
2.34
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.53
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.36 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 2.34
Error: +0.36
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Expectations (New Zealand) was reported at 2.34% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.36%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.53%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.41%, up from the prior three at 2.28%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.36%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Inflation Expectations - NZ
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About Inflation Expectations — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Inflation expectations refer to the anticipated rate of increase in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy. This financial indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, interest rates, and overall economic growth. By analyzing inflation expectations, individuals and organizations can make informed decisions about their investments and financial planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.34 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.53 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.37 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.65 | -2.64 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Medium | |