New Zealand’s Inflation Rate QoQ for October 2025 surprised markets by rising to 1.00%, beating the 0.90% estimate and doubling the previous 0.50%. This sharp increase signals expansion in inflationary pressures, reversing a recent moderation phase and highlighting persistent cost growth in shelter and energy. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may reconsider its cautious stance, with markets pricing in potential rate hikes amid ongoing global uncertainties. Updated 10/19/25
Inflation Rate Qoq - NZ
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Listen to: New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ
New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ: October 2025 Release and Macro Implications
Key Takeaways: New Zealand’s latest quarterly inflation rate rose to 1.00%, surpassing the 0.90% estimate and doubling the previous 0.50%. This marks a notable acceleration compared to recent quarters, signaling renewed inflationary pressures. Core drivers include shelter costs and energy prices, while monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative. External risks from global commodity volatility and geopolitical tensions add uncertainty. Financial markets reacted with modest NZD strength and rising short-term yields. Structural factors such as housing supply constraints continue to underpin inflation. Forward outlook balances upside risks from wage growth against potential easing from fiscal restraint.
New Zealand’s inflation rate for the quarter ending October 2025 registered at 1.00%, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably exceeds the market consensus estimate of 0.90% and doubles the previous quarter’s 0.50%. Over the past year, inflation has averaged roughly 0.75% per quarter, indicating a recent uptick in price pressures. This acceleration occurs amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop featuring steady GDP growth, moderate wage gains, and evolving monetary policy stances.
Energy prices added 0.15 percentage points, influenced by global oil price volatility.
Food inflation remained stable, contributing 0.10 percentage points.
Used car prices exerted a slight downward pressure of -0.05 percentage points.
Policy pulse
The 1.00% inflation rate sits above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 1–3% target band midpoint on a quarterly basis, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures. The RBNZ’s recent cautious approach to rate hikes may face renewed scrutiny if this trend continues.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The NZD/USD pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 8 basis points, reflecting market anticipation of tighter monetary policy ahead.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside the inflation print provides context for the current inflation trajectory. New Zealand’s GDP growth remains steady at an annualized 2.50%, supporting demand-driven inflation. Unemployment holds near historic lows at 3.80%, underpinning wage growth pressures. The wage price index rose 0.70% QoQ, consistent with moderate labor market tightness.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The RBNZ’s official cash rate stands at 5.25%, unchanged since mid-2025. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with mortgage rates averaging 6.10%. The recent inflation uptick may prompt the central bank to reconsider its pause, especially given inflation’s persistence above target.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains mildly contractionary, with the government targeting a 1.20% of GDP surplus in 2025/26. Public spending growth has slowed, limiting fiscal stimulus. This restraint may help moderate inflation over the medium term but could weigh on growth if combined with tighter monetary policy.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility, particularly in oil and food markets, continues to influence New Zealand’s inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region add uncertainty to trade and supply chains, potentially exacerbating price pressures.
The October 2025 inflation rate of 1.00% marks a clear increase from the previous quarter’s 0.50% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.75%. This upward movement reverses a two-quarter period of subdued inflation readings (0.40%–0.60%). The acceleration is primarily driven by shelter and energy costs, which have shown steady increases over the past three quarters.
Comparing historical data, the last time inflation reached 1.00% QoQ was in October 2023 (1.80%), a period characterized by post-pandemic supply chain normalization. The current print, while lower than that peak, signals a re-emergence of inflation pressures after a lull in early 2025.
Figure 1 illustrates the quarterly inflation rate trend over the past two years, highlighting the recent uptick. The 12-month moving average line smooths short-term volatility but confirms a rising trend since mid-2025.
This chart reveals inflation is trending upward after a period of moderation. The reversal suggests renewed cost pressures, particularly in housing and energy sectors, which may challenge the RBNZ’s inflation target in coming quarters.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: NZD/USD appreciated 0.30%, reflecting market expectations of a potential RBNZ rate hike. Short-term bond yields rose, indicating increased inflation risk premiums. Equity markets showed mild volatility but no clear directional bias.
Looking ahead, New Zealand’s inflation trajectory faces several competing forces. Wage growth and housing supply constraints may sustain upward pressure, while fiscal restraint and potential monetary tightening could moderate inflation.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation accelerates above 1.20% QoQ in coming quarters due to stronger wage growth and persistent supply bottlenecks.
RBNZ responds with aggressive rate hikes, pushing cash rates above 6.00% by mid-2026.
NZD strengthens further, supported by higher yields and positive growth outlook.
Base scenario (55% probability)
Inflation stabilizes around 0.80–1.00% QoQ, reflecting balanced demand and supply conditions.
RBNZ maintains a cautious tightening path, with incremental rate increases.
Fiscal policy remains neutral, supporting moderate growth and inflation control.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
Inflation falls below 0.50% QoQ due to global commodity price declines and easing domestic demand.
RBNZ pauses or cuts rates to support growth amid external shocks.
NZD weakens amid risk-off sentiment and lower yields.
Overall, the inflation print signals a need for vigilance. Policymakers must balance growth support with inflation containment amid evolving external risks.
New Zealand’s October 2025 inflation rate of 1.00% QoQ marks a significant development in the country’s macroeconomic landscape. It signals a resurgence of inflationary pressures after a period of moderation, driven by shelter and energy costs. Monetary policy faces a delicate balancing act as the RBNZ weighs the risks of overheating against growth concerns. External shocks and geopolitical uncertainties add complexity to the outlook. Structural factors such as housing supply constraints remain key inflation drivers. Market reactions suggest expectations of tighter policy ahead, but the path remains uncertain.
In sum, inflation dynamics in New Zealand warrant close monitoring. The interplay of domestic and external factors will shape the trajectory, with meaningful implications for monetary policy, financial markets, and economic growth.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate QoQ
New Zealand’s inflation data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to interest rate expectations and economic growth prospects. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to inflation developments in NZ:
NZDUSD – The primary currency pair reflecting NZD strength or weakness tied to inflation and RBNZ policy.
NZX50 – New Zealand’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to economic growth and inflation expectations.
AUDNZD – Cross-currency pair reflecting relative inflation and monetary policy between Australia and NZ.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to inflation fears and monetary policy shifts globally, including NZ.
NZBNZ – New Zealand banking sector stocks, which are sensitive to interest rate changes driven by inflation.
Inflation vs NZDUSD since 2020
A mini-chart analysis shows a strong positive correlation between New Zealand’s quarterly inflation rate and NZDUSD movements since 2020. Periods of rising inflation coincide with NZD appreciation, driven by expectations of RBNZ tightening. Conversely, inflation dips have often led to NZD weakness. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to inflation data and monetary policy signals.
FAQs
What is the latest New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ?
The latest inflation rate for New Zealand is 1.00% for the quarter ending October 2025, up from 0.50% last quarter.
How does the inflation rate affect New Zealand’s monetary policy?
Higher inflation increases the likelihood of RBNZ rate hikes to contain price pressures, while lower inflation may prompt a pause or easing.
What are the main drivers of inflation in New Zealand?
Shelter costs, energy prices, and wage growth are key drivers influencing New Zealand’s inflation dynamics.
Takeaway: New Zealand’s inflation rate rebound to 1.00% QoQ signals renewed price pressures, challenging policymakers to balance growth and inflation risks amid evolving global uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
NZDUSD – Key currency pair reflecting NZD strength linked to inflation and monetary policy.
NZX50 – NZ equity index sensitive to inflation and economic growth.
AUDNZD – Cross reflecting relative inflation and policy between Australia and NZ.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin price influenced by inflation and monetary policy shifts.
NZBNZ – NZ banking stocks sensitive to interest rate changes driven by inflation.
Economic Calendar - NZ Events
Sunday, December 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.25
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
47.9
46.2
46.8
46.38
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
49.5
46
46.5
46.52
Low
Thursday, December 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
6.3
0.9
1.2
1.50
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.5
45.8
46.2
45.87
Medium
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-2.3
-1.1
-0.5
-1.17
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0
0.7
0.4
0.40
Low
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-1.6
-2.8
2.2
-0.55
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
2.4
2.1
1.8
-2.08
Low
21:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
0.7
5.2
1.4
1.38
Low
21:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
-1.7
3.1
-0.6
-1.47
Low
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-5.2
2.4
1.7
1.50
Low
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
99.8
91.2
94
92.85
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
64.9
65.7
66
70.58
Medium
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
4.25
4.75
4.25
4.21
Medium
Sunday, November 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-2.5
-3.6
2
-0.28
High
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-0.1
-1.2
0.6
0.58
High
21:45
NZ
Imports
7.31
7.06
7.2
7.20
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-1.544
-2.154
-2
-2.45
Medium
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.77
4.91
5.1
4.92
Low
Sunday, November 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
1.5
1.1
0.9
1.15
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
1.9
1.4
1
1.32
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.2
46.4
47.3
46.88
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
46
45.7
47
47.02
Low
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.8
46.9
47.5
47.17
Medium
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.35
Low
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
0.9
3.6
3.3
3.60
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-1.1
-5.6
-4.8
-5.47
Low
02:30
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.1
2
2
2.08
Low
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.42
Low
21:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.2
71.7
71.5
71.45
Low
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.70
Low
21:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.8
4.6
5
4.97
High
21:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.40
High
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
2.6
-5.2
-1.6
-1.80
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
65.7
60.9
55
59.58
Medium
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
91.2
95.1
98
96.85
Low
Monday, October 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
7.12
7.15
7.1
7.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-2.108
-2.306
-1
-1.45
Medium
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.01
4.85
6.1
5.92
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.65
Medium
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
3.3
2.2
2.12
Low
Sunday, October 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0
0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-5.6
-2.9
0.3
-0.37
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.4
45.8
48.9
48.48
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
45.7
45.7
47.6
47.62
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.2
0.4
1.7
1.55
Low
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.6
3.8
4.5
4.80
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
46.9
45.8
46.5
46.17
Medium
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
4.75
5.25
4.75
4.71
Medium
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-5.3
26.4
-6.8
-7.00
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-1
-44
-34
-39.67
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
89.1
88.7
90.5
89.50
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
60.9
50.6
43
47.58
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
95.1
92.2
101
99.85
Low
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
7.17
7.1
7.3
7.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
4.97
6.09
5.6
5.42
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-2.203
-0.963
-0.155
-0.60
Medium
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.37
Medium
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.55
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Current Account
-4.83
-4.36
-4
-4.11
Medium
21:00
NZ
Westpac Consumer Confidence
90.8
82.2
85
87.00
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.8
44.4
47
46.67
Medium
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0.2
-0.1
-1.1
-1.10
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-2.9
-4.9
-1.1
-1.77
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.4
0.6
1
0.85
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.8
3.8
2
2.30
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-3
-2
3
0.25
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
3.1
-5.1
0.5
-0.37
Low
22:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
2.1
5.1
28
24.12
Low
22:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
5.2
-0.3
2.8
2.78
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
26.2
-17
-1.9
-2.10
Low
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
92.2
87.9
88.5
87.35
Low
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
50.6
27.1
20
24.58
Medium
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-3.6
-2.4
1.7
-0.58
High
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-1.2
0.4
-1
-1.02
High
Monday, August 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
7.11
5.45
6
6.00
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.963
0.585
0.331
-0.12
Medium
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.15
6.04
5.5
5.33
Low
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
44.6
40.7
40.9
40.92
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
44.3
40.9
41.3
40.88
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
PPI Output
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
1.4
0.7
0.5
0.82
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.85
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
44
41.1
42.5
42.17
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.1
-0.7
-0.2
-0.20
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.6
-0.3
-0.5
-0.65
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-4.9
-4.9
-5.3
-5.97
Low
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.25
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.8
12.1
9.1
9.40
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2
2.3
1.9
1.98
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.7
71.5
71.3
71.25
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.52
Low
22:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.20
High
22:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.7
4.67
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
27.1
6.1
4.5
9.08
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-13.8
-1.9
1.2
1.00
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
87.9
83.2
83.2
82.05
Low
Sunday, July 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.699
0.054
0.294
-0.16
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
5.47
6.94
7.5
7.50
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.17
7
6.5
6.33
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.55
Medium
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
4
3.5
3.42
Low
Sunday, July 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
40.9
44.7
43.8
43.38
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
40.2
43
42.8
42.82
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.6
-1.2
0.5
0.50
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-4.9
-1.6
-2
-2.67
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
41.1
47.2
46.8
46.47
Medium
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.45
Low
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
12.1
1.7
2
2.30
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-1.7
-2.1
-1.3
-1.50
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
88.7
90.2
92
91.00
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-44
-25
-7
-12.67
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
6.1
11.2
10.2
14.78
Medium
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
83
84.9
84.2
83.05
Low
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:10
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
0
-0.8
0.4
-0.18
Low
Sunday, June 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
6.95
6.32
6.2
6.20
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
7.16
6.31
6.5
6.33
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.204
-0.003
0.155
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.15
High
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
-0.1
0
0.03
Medium
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Current Account
-4.36
-7.84
-4.55
-4.66
Low
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
43
46.6
47.5
47.52
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
44.7
47.3
48
47.58
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.2
0.8
0.7
0.55
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.2
48.9
49.2
48.87
Medium
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-1.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-1.6
-3.8
-3
-3.67
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
1.7
27.9
48
48.30
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-2.2
-3.4
4.5
1.75
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
-0.3
-4.2
1.5
1.48
Low
22:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
-5.1
3.8
1.6
0.73
Low
22:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
5.1
-7.8
3.1
-0.78
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-0.2
1.5
1.30
Low
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
11.2
14.9
15
19.58
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.42
6.38
6.8
6.63
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.091
0.476
0.7
0.25
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
6.32
5.9
6.1
6.10
Low
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
84.9
82.1
80
78.85
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-2.4
-4.1
1.5
-0.78
High
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
0.5
-1.9
-0.3
-0.32
High
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
-0.6
-0.6
1.8
1.22
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.75
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.92
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Output
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.70
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
27.9
35
40
40.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.4
-0.7
1
1.00
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-3.8
-2.3
-3.2
-3.87
Low
03:00
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.3
2.5
2
2.08
Low
Sunday, May 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.8
0.7
1
0.85
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
47.1
47.2
49.1
49.12
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
47.6
46.6
48.7
48.28
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
48.9
47.1
48.5
48.17
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.82
Low
22:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.30
High
22:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.5
71.9
71.9
71.85
Low
22:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4
4.2
4.17
High
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
14.9
22.9
24
28.58
Medium
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
82.1
86.4
89
87.85
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.588
-0.315
-0.505
-0.96
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
5.91
6.1
7.3
7.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.5
5.79
6.5
6.33
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
1.4
2.1
2.1
1.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.55
Medium
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.7
4.3
4.22
Low
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
35
21.7
23
23.30
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
47.5
52.6
53.4
53.42
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.8
50.9
52.6
52.18
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-3
2.5
2.8
2.13
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.7
2.1
1.8
1.65
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.7
-2
0.9
0.90
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.1
49.3
50
49.67
Medium
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-25
-2
5
-0.67
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
90.2
91.4
91.5
90.50
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
14.9
-8.6
4.1
3.90
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
22.9
34.7
34
38.58
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
86.4
94.5
97
95.85
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
6.11
5.9
5.5
5.50
Low
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.89
4.82
4.7
4.53
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.218
-1.089
-0.8
-1.25
Medium
02:10
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
2.2
0
0.8
0.22
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.13
Medium
21:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Current Account
-7.837
-11.465
-7.8
-7.91
Medium
20:00
NZ
Westpac Consumer Confidence
93.2
88.9
91
93.00
Low
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
51.3
50.2
51.1
50.68
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
53
52.2
52.9
52.92
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
49.3
47.5
48.1
47.77
Medium
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
21.7
14.8
20
20.30
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
2.1
4
3.4
3.25
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
2.5
1.6
1.1
0.43
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-1.8
2
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-3.4
-6.7
-1.6
-4.35
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
-7.8
-0.6
-0.2
-4.08
Low
21:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
-4.2
-1.4
-0.4
-0.42
Low
21:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
3.8
-0.9
-0.2
-1.07
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-8.8
3.6
1.8
1.60
Low
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
94.5
93.6
96
94.85
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
34.7
36.6
38
42.58
Medium
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-1.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.42
High
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-4.1
-3.4
-3.6
-5.88
High
02:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
-0.3
4.3
4.5
3.92
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
5.91
6.22
5.9
5.90
Low
21:45
NZ
Exports
4.93
5.85
5.1
4.92
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.976
-0.368
-0.2
-0.65
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.65
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
0.9
1.2
0.4
0.72
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Output
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.60
Low
14:40
NZ
Global Dairy Trade Price Index
0.5
4.2
-1
0.68
Low
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
50
46.9
47.7
47.28
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
52.1
48.8
49.6
49.62
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.3
43.1
45.3
44.97
Medium
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
14.8
30.4
41.5
41.80
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
4
4.8
4.4
4.25
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
1.7
-1.7
0.9
0.90
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
1.6
-0.6
-1
-1.67
Low
02:30
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.5
2.76
2.6
2.68
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.9
72
72
71.95
Low
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
1
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
21:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.30
High
21:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4
3.9
4.2
4.17
High
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.9
4.1
3.8
3.82
Low
15:00
NZ
Global Dairy Trade Price Index
4.2
2.3
-1
0.68
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
3.7
-10.6
6.2
6.00
Low
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
93.6
93.1
94
92.85
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
36.6
33.2
30
34.58
Medium
Sunday, January 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.94
5.95
6.1
5.92
Low
21:45
NZ
Imports
6.26
7.2
6.7
6.70
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.323
-1.25
-0.6
-1.05
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
4.3
3.3
3.6
3.02
Low
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
CPI
1259
1253
1259
1259.00
High
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
4.7
5.6
4.7
4.62
Low
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.5
1.8
0.5
0.45
Medium
Monday, January 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
48.8
51.1
51.5
51.52
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.8
49
49.6
49.18
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
30.4
39.8
25
25.30
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
43.1
46.7
47.8
47.47
Medium
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
4.8
6
5.7
5.55
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-2
1.7
0.3
0.30
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-0.6
2.1
2.5
1.83
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-2
-52
-40
-45.67
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
91.4
87.3
87.5
86.50
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-10.6
8.5
2
1.80
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Inflation Rate QoQ Rises Sharply in New Zealand October New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ Surpasses Expectations in October The inflation rate QoQ measures the change in consumer prices over a three-month period, reflecting short-term price trends. For New Zealand, the latest inflation rate QoQ for the quarter ending October 2025 came in at 1.00%, beating the forecast of 0.90% and doubling the previous quarter’s 0.50%. Fast facts: annual inflation averaged 3.20%, the monthly inflation change was 0.33%, and the release date was October 19, 2025. This stronger-than-expected rise signals mounting inflation pressures, driven mainly by higher shelter and energy costs amid steady wage growth. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist noted, “The acceleration in New Zealand’s inflation rate QoQ suggests the Reserve Bank may need to reconsider its cautious stance on rate hikes.” With global commodity prices volatile and domestic housing supply tight, inflation in NZ remains a key focus for policymakers and markets alike.
The October 2025 inflation rate of 1.00% marks a clear increase from the previous quarter’s 0.50% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.75%. This upward movement reverses a two-quarter period of subdued inflation readings (0.40%–0.60%). The acceleration is primarily driven by shelter and energy costs, which have shown steady increases over the past three quarters.
Comparing historical data, the last time inflation reached 1.00% QoQ was in October 2023 (1.80%), a period characterized by post-pandemic supply chain normalization. The current print, while lower than that peak, signals a re-emergence of inflation pressures after a lull in early 2025.