Loading page content
Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ climbed to 1.5% in Q2 2026
Stats NZMonthlyReleased July 2026
New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ climbed to 1.5% in Q2 2026, released July 2026, up 0.6% from March's 0.9% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.4% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.83%. Inflation Rate QoQ is now the highest in 30 months.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
1.4
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.4
Actual: 1.5
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate QoQ (New Zealand) was reported at 1.5% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.4% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1%, up from the prior three at 0.67%. In July readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate QoQ has averaged 0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Inflation Rate QoQ - NZ
Loading chart data...
About Inflation Rate QoQ — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy from one quarter to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists, policymakers, and investors to track the rate of price increases and assess the health of an economy. A higher QoQ inflation rate indicates a faster pace of price growth, while a lower rate suggests a slower rate of inflation. This indicator is important for making informed decisions related to monetary policy, investment strategies, and budget planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.5 %, consensus 1.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |