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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Participation Rate fell to 70.4% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
New Zealand Participation Rate fell to 70.4% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.1% from December's 70.5% reading. The reading matched the 70.5% consensus.
Latest Release
70.4
Actual
70.5
Consensus
70.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 70.5
Actual: 70.5
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Participation Rate (New Zealand) was reported at 70.4% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 70.5% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 70.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 70.43%, down from the prior three at 71%. In February readings over the past 3 years, Participation Rate has averaged 71.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Participation Rate - NZ
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About Participation Rate — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The participation rate is a financial indicator that measures the percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the level of labor force participation in an economy and can provide insights into the overall health and strength of the job market. A higher participation rate is generally seen as a positive sign of a robust economy, while a lower rate may indicate a weaker job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers to inform decisions related to employment and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 70.4 %, consensus 70.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 70.5 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 70.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | NZ | ANZ Business Confidence | 56.1 | 36.6 | 36 | 46.05 | Medium |
| 22:00 | NZ | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 99.3 | 91.3 | 90.5 | 94.90 | Low |