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Data from Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision climbed to 2.75% in September 2026
Reserve Bank of New ZealandMonthlyReleased September 2026
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision climbed to 2.75% in September 2026, up 0.25% from August's 2.5% reading. The reading matched the 2.75% consensus. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision has now risen for 3 consecutive months. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
2.75
Actual
2.75
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.75
Actual: 2.75
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (New Zealand) was reported at 2.75% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.75% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.42%, ranging from 2.25% to 2.75% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.5%, up from the prior three at 2.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.58%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - NZ
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About RBNZ Interest Rate Decision — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This decision, made by the central bank's governing body, determines the target interest rate for the country's economy. It is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and individuals as it can have a significant impact on borrowing costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is a crucial factor in shaping the financial landscape of New Zealand and is a key consideration for those involved in financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.75 %, consensus 2.75 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (May 2026): 2.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.65 | -2.64 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |