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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Retail Sales QoQ fell to 1.0% in Q1 2026
Stats NZMonthlyReleased May 2026
New Zealand Retail Sales QoQ fell to 1.0% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from December's 1.5% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.24%.
Latest Release
1
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.85 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.75
Actual: 1
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales QoQ (New Zealand) was reported at 1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.27%, up from the prior three at 0.77%. In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales QoQ has averaged 0.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.85%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Jun 16) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Sales QoQ - NZ
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About Retail Sales QoQ — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Retail Sales QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a specific quarter compared to the previous quarter. This indicator is used to assess the overall health and performance of the retail sector and can provide valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and economic trends. A positive QoQ growth in retail sales indicates a strong demand for goods and services, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in consumer spending. Retail Sales QoQ is a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers in making informed decisions and forecasting future economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.9 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.