Loading page content
Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Retail Sales YoY fell to 3.3% in April 2026
Stats NZMonthlyReleased August 2026
New Zealand Retail Sales YoY fell to 3.3% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 1.2% from March's 4.5% reading. The reading matched the 3.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.53%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 2.67%, vs 2.68% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
3.2
Consensus
4.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.2
Actual: 3.3
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 0.9% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.29%, ranging from 0.2% to 4.5% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.47%, down from the prior three at 2.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.51%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.71%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Nov 3) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Retail Sales YoY - NZ
Loading chart data...
About Retail Sales YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | NZ | ANZ Business Confidence | 52.5 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 52.00 | Medium |
| 21:00 | NZ | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 96.2 | 97.6 | 97.4 | 96.80 | Low |