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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Retail Sales YoY climbed to 4.5% in January 2026
Stats NZMonthlyReleased May 2026
New Zealand Retail Sales YoY climbed to 4.5% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 0.1% from December's 4.4% reading. The print exceeded the 2.8% consensus by 1.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.98%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 2.65%, vs 2.17% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the highest in 39 months.
Latest Release
4.5
Actual
2.8
Consensus
4.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.2
Actual: 4.5
Error: -1.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 1.3% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.16%, ranging from 0.4% to 4.5% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.03%, up from the prior three at 2.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.39%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.69%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - NZ
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About Retail Sales YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 4.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |