Terms Of Trade Qoq - NZ Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
New Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ
-2.1
Actual
0.3
Consensus
4.2
Previous
New Zealand’s Terms of Trade QoQ for December 2025 surprised markets with a -2.10% contraction, missing the 0.30% estimate and reversing the prior 4.20% gain. This sharp decline signals a contraction in export competitiveness after recent expansion, driven by falling export prices and rising import costs. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance amid inflation concerns and external uncertainties. Updated 12/1/25
Terms Of Trade Qoq - NZ
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New Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ: December 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: New Zealand’s latest Terms of Trade (ToT) contracted by 2.10% QoQ, missing the 0.30% consensus and reversing the prior 4.20% gain. This marks a notable shift from the recent positive trend, reflecting external pressures and commodity price volatility. The decline signals potential headwinds for NZD strength and export-driven growth. Monetary policy may remain cautious amid inflation concerns and global uncertainty. Fiscal buffers and structural reforms will be critical to navigate evolving external shocks and maintain macro stability.
The December 2025 Terms of Trade (ToT) release for New Zealand revealed a -2.10% quarterly contraction, a sharp reversal from the 4.20% increase recorded in September 2025. This print fell short of the 0.30% market expectation, signaling a sudden deterioration in export prices relative to imports. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights the growing pressure on New Zealand’s external sector amid fluctuating commodity markets and global demand shifts.
Drivers this month
Commodity price softness, especially in dairy and meat exports, weighed heavily.
Rising import costs due to higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions.
Weaker global demand from China and Europe dampened export volumes.
Policy pulse
The ToT decline complicates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) inflation targeting, as weaker export earnings may slow growth but imported inflation pressures persist. The print suggests a cautious stance on further rate hikes, balancing inflation control with growth risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: NZD/USD slipped 0.40% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged down 5 basis points, reflecting risk-off sentiment and growth concerns.
New Zealand’s Terms of Trade is a critical macro indicator measuring export prices relative to import prices. The latest -2.10% QoQ reading contrasts with the 12-month average of 1.90%, underscoring a notable shift in external competitiveness. Historically, ToT swings have correlated strongly with GDP growth and the NZD exchange rate.
Historical comparisons
September 2024: 2.10% QoQ, supporting a robust export sector and NZD appreciation.
March 2024: -7.80% QoQ, the largest quarterly drop in recent years, linked to global commodity shocks.
June 2024: 5.10% QoQ, a rebound driven by dairy price recovery and supply constraints.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The RBNZ’s tightening cycle since mid-2024 has aimed to curb inflation, but the ToT downturn introduces uncertainty. Inflation remains sticky due to import costs, while export earnings face headwinds. Financial conditions have tightened, with mortgage rates rising and credit growth slowing.
Fiscal policy & government budget
New Zealand’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with recent budgets focusing on infrastructure and social spending. However, weaker ToT pressures export tax revenues, potentially constraining fiscal space if the trend persists.
The December 2025 ToT print of -2.10% contrasts sharply with the prior month’s 4.20% and the 12-month average of 1.90%. This reversal reflects a combination of falling export prices and rising import costs, particularly energy and intermediate goods.
Compared to the March 2024 trough of -7.80%, the current reading signals renewed volatility but less severe deterioration. The data suggests a cyclical pattern influenced by global commodity cycles and trade disruptions.
Drivers this month
Export price index fell 3.50% QoQ, led by dairy (-4.20%) and meat (-3.80%).
Import price index rose 1.50% QoQ, driven by oil (7.10%) and machinery (2.30%).
Global supply chain bottlenecks persisted, adding cost pressures.
This chart highlights the ToT’s sensitivity to commodity price swings and external demand. The recent decline signals potential export sector stress, which could weigh on GDP growth and the NZD if sustained. Monitoring commodity trends and global trade conditions will be key.
Policy pulse
The RBNZ faces a complex environment: ToT weakness may dampen growth, but imported inflation remains elevated. This dynamic supports a cautious monetary policy approach, possibly pausing rate hikes to assess evolving risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: NZD/USD depreciated 0.40%, while 2-year bond yields fell 5 bps, reflecting risk aversion and growth concerns. Commodity-linked equities also saw modest declines.
Looking ahead, New Zealand’s Terms of Trade trajectory depends on global commodity prices, trade relations, and domestic policy responses. The following scenarios outline potential paths:
Scenario analysis
Bullish (30% probability): Commodity prices rebound, especially dairy and meat, lifting export prices by 3-5% QoQ. ToT improves, supporting NZD strength and growth.
Base (50% probability): Modest recovery in export prices offset by persistent import cost pressures. ToT stabilizes near zero change, with balanced growth and inflation risks.
Bearish (20% probability): Prolonged global demand weakness and supply shocks deepen ToT decline by 3-5% QoQ, pressuring growth and fiscal revenues.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Asia-Pacific trade routes, and energy market volatility pose downside risks. New Zealand’s export exposure to China and Australia makes it vulnerable to external shocks.
Structural & long-run trends
Long-term ToT trends reflect New Zealand’s commodity export reliance and evolving trade partnerships. Diversification efforts and value-added exports could mitigate volatility over time.
The December 2025 Terms of Trade contraction signals a challenging external environment for New Zealand. While not as severe as the March 2024 plunge, the negative print disrupts recent positive momentum. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support amid external uncertainties. Fiscal prudence and structural reforms remain vital to enhance resilience. Market participants should watch commodity prices, global demand, and RBNZ signals closely in coming months.
Key Markets Likely to React to Terms of Trade QoQ
Terms of Trade shifts strongly influence New Zealand’s currency, bond yields, and commodity-linked equities. The NZD/USD pair typically reacts swiftly to ToT surprises, reflecting changes in export competitiveness. Dairy and agricultural stocks also track ToT trends closely. Additionally, global energy prices and geopolitical developments can amplify market moves tied to ToT fluctuations.
NZX50 – New Zealand’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to export sector performance.
FGL – Fonterra Co-operative Group, a major dairy exporter linked to ToT movements.
AUDNZD – Reflects relative economic conditions and trade dynamics with Australia.
BTCUSD – While less directly linked, Bitcoin often serves as a risk sentiment barometer amid global shocks affecting ToT.
Insight Box: Since 2020, NZDUSD and Terms of Trade have shown a positive correlation, with ToT improvements often preceding NZD appreciation. For example, the 2024 ToT rebound coincided with a 7% NZDUSD gain. Monitoring this relationship helps anticipate currency moves amid commodity cycles.
FAQs
What is the Terms of Trade QoQ for New Zealand?
The Terms of Trade QoQ measures the quarterly change in export prices relative to import prices. The latest reading is -2.10% for December 2025.
How does the Terms of Trade affect New Zealand’s economy?
Changes in ToT influence export competitiveness, GDP growth, inflation, and the NZD exchange rate, impacting overall economic health.
What factors drive fluctuations in New Zealand’s Terms of Trade?
Commodity prices, global demand, supply chain conditions, and geopolitical risks are key drivers of ToT volatility.
Takeaway: New Zealand’s Terms of Trade reversal in December 2025 highlights external vulnerabilities. Policymakers and markets must navigate a complex outlook balancing inflation, growth, and global risks.
Updated 12/1/25
Key Markets Likely to React to Terms of Trade QoQ
The Terms of Trade indicator is a bellwether for New Zealand’s external sector health. Currency pairs like NZDUSD respond quickly to ToT shifts, reflecting export competitiveness. The NZX50 index tracks export-driven earnings, while major exporters like FGL are directly impacted by commodity price swings. Cross-currency pairs such as AUDNZD reflect relative trade conditions with Australia. Even BTCUSD can serve as a risk sentiment proxy amid global shocks affecting ToT.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - NZ Events
Sunday, December 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.25
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
47.9
46.2
46.8
46.38
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
49.5
46
46.5
46.52
Low
Thursday, December 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
6.3
0.9
1.2
1.50
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.5
45.8
46.2
45.87
Medium
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-2.3
-1.1
-0.5
-1.17
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0
0.7
0.4
0.40
Low
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-1.6
-2.8
2.2
-0.55
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
2.4
2.1
1.8
-2.08
Low
21:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
0.7
5.2
1.4
1.38
Low
21:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
-1.7
3.1
-0.6
-1.47
Low
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-5.2
2.4
1.7
1.50
Low
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
99.8
91.2
94
92.85
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
64.9
65.7
66
70.58
Medium
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
4.25
4.75
4.25
4.21
Medium
Sunday, November 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-2.5
-3.6
2
-0.28
High
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-0.1
-1.2
0.6
0.58
High
21:45
NZ
Imports
7.31
7.06
7.2
7.20
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-1.544
-2.154
-2
-2.45
Medium
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.77
4.91
5.1
4.92
Low
Sunday, November 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
1.5
1.1
0.9
1.15
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
1.9
1.4
1
1.32
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.2
46.4
47.3
46.88
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
46
45.7
47
47.02
Low
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.8
46.9
47.5
47.17
Medium
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.35
Low
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
0.9
3.6
3.3
3.60
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-1.1
-5.6
-4.8
-5.47
Low
02:30
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.1
2
2
2.08
Low
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.42
Low
21:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.2
71.7
71.5
71.45
Low
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.70
Low
21:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.8
4.6
5
4.97
High
21:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.40
High
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
2.6
-5.2
-1.6
-1.80
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
65.7
60.9
55
59.58
Medium
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
91.2
95.1
98
96.85
Low
Monday, October 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
7.12
7.15
7.1
7.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-2.108
-2.306
-1
-1.45
Medium
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.01
4.85
6.1
5.92
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.65
Medium
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
3.3
2.2
2.12
Low
Sunday, October 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0
0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-5.6
-2.9
0.3
-0.37
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.4
45.8
48.9
48.48
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
45.7
45.7
47.6
47.62
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.2
0.4
1.7
1.55
Low
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.6
3.8
4.5
4.80
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
46.9
45.8
46.5
46.17
Medium
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
4.75
5.25
4.75
4.71
Medium
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-5.3
26.4
-6.8
-7.00
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-1
-44
-34
-39.67
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
89.1
88.7
90.5
89.50
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
60.9
50.6
43
47.58
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
95.1
92.2
101
99.85
Low
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
7.17
7.1
7.3
7.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
4.97
6.09
5.6
5.42
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-2.203
-0.963
-0.155
-0.60
Medium
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.37
Medium
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.55
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Current Account
-4.83
-4.36
-4
-4.11
Medium
21:00
NZ
Westpac Consumer Confidence
90.8
82.2
85
87.00
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.8
44.4
47
46.67
Medium
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0.2
-0.1
-1.1
-1.10
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-2.9
-4.9
-1.1
-1.77
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.4
0.6
1
0.85
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.8
3.8
2
2.30
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-3
-2
3
0.25
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
3.1
-5.1
0.5
-0.37
Low
22:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
2.1
5.1
28
24.12
Low
22:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
5.2
-0.3
2.8
2.78
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
26.2
-17
-1.9
-2.10
Low
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
92.2
87.9
88.5
87.35
Low
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
50.6
27.1
20
24.58
Medium
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-3.6
-2.4
1.7
-0.58
High
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-1.2
0.4
-1
-1.02
High
Monday, August 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
7.11
5.45
6
6.00
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.963
0.585
0.331
-0.12
Medium
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.15
6.04
5.5
5.33
Low
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
44.6
40.7
40.9
40.92
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
44.3
40.9
41.3
40.88
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
PPI Output
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
1.4
0.7
0.5
0.82
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.85
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
44
41.1
42.5
42.17
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.1
-0.7
-0.2
-0.20
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.6
-0.3
-0.5
-0.65
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-4.9
-4.9
-5.3
-5.97
Low
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.25
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.8
12.1
9.1
9.40
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2
2.3
1.9
1.98
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.7
71.5
71.3
71.25
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.52
Low
22:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.20
High
22:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.7
4.67
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
27.1
6.1
4.5
9.08
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-13.8
-1.9
1.2
1.00
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
87.9
83.2
83.2
82.05
Low
Sunday, July 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.699
0.054
0.294
-0.16
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
5.47
6.94
7.5
7.50
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.17
7
6.5
6.33
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.55
Medium
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
4
3.5
3.42
Low
Sunday, July 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
40.9
44.7
43.8
43.38
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
40.2
43
42.8
42.82
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.6
-1.2
0.5
0.50
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-4.9
-1.6
-2
-2.67
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
41.1
47.2
46.8
46.47
Medium
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.45
Low
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
12.1
1.7
2
2.30
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-1.7
-2.1
-1.3
-1.50
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
88.7
90.2
92
91.00
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-44
-25
-7
-12.67
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
6.1
11.2
10.2
14.78
Medium
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
83
84.9
84.2
83.05
Low
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:10
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
0
-0.8
0.4
-0.18
Low
Sunday, June 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
6.95
6.32
6.2
6.20
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
7.16
6.31
6.5
6.33
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.204
-0.003
0.155
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.15
High
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
-0.1
0
0.03
Medium
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Current Account
-4.36
-7.84
-4.55
-4.66
Low
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
43
46.6
47.5
47.52
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
44.7
47.3
48
47.58
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.2
0.8
0.7
0.55
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.2
48.9
49.2
48.87
Medium
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-1.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-1.6
-3.8
-3
-3.67
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
1.7
27.9
48
48.30
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-2.2
-3.4
4.5
1.75
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
-0.3
-4.2
1.5
1.48
Low
22:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
-5.1
3.8
1.6
0.73
Low
22:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
5.1
-7.8
3.1
-0.78
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-0.2
1.5
1.30
Low
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
11.2
14.9
15
19.58
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.42
6.38
6.8
6.63
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.091
0.476
0.7
0.25
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
6.32
5.9
6.1
6.10
Low
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
84.9
82.1
80
78.85
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-2.4
-4.1
1.5
-0.78
High
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
0.5
-1.9
-0.3
-0.32
High
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
-0.6
-0.6
1.8
1.22
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.75
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.92
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Output
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.70
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
27.9
35
40
40.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.4
-0.7
1
1.00
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-3.8
-2.3
-3.2
-3.87
Low
03:00
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.3
2.5
2
2.08
Low
Sunday, May 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.8
0.7
1
0.85
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
47.1
47.2
49.1
49.12
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
47.6
46.6
48.7
48.28
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
48.9
47.1
48.5
48.17
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.82
Low
22:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.30
High
22:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.5
71.9
71.9
71.85
Low
22:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4
4.2
4.17
High
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
14.9
22.9
24
28.58
Medium
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
82.1
86.4
89
87.85
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.588
-0.315
-0.505
-0.96
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
5.91
6.1
7.3
7.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.5
5.79
6.5
6.33
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
1.4
2.1
2.1
1.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.55
Medium
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.7
4.3
4.22
Low
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
35
21.7
23
23.30
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
47.5
52.6
53.4
53.42
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.8
50.9
52.6
52.18
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-3
2.5
2.8
2.13
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.7
2.1
1.8
1.65
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.7
-2
0.9
0.90
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.1
49.3
50
49.67
Medium
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-25
-2
5
-0.67
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
90.2
91.4
91.5
90.50
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
14.9
-8.6
4.1
3.90
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
22.9
34.7
34
38.58
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
86.4
94.5
97
95.85
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
6.11
5.9
5.5
5.50
Low
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.89
4.82
4.7
4.53
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.218
-1.089
-0.8
-1.25
Medium
02:10
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
2.2
0
0.8
0.22
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.13
Medium
21:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Current Account
-7.837
-11.465
-7.8
-7.91
Medium
20:00
NZ
Westpac Consumer Confidence
93.2
88.9
91
93.00
Low
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
51.3
50.2
51.1
50.68
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
53
52.2
52.9
52.92
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
49.3
47.5
48.1
47.77
Medium
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
21.7
14.8
20
20.30
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
2.1
4
3.4
3.25
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
2.5
1.6
1.1
0.43
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-1.8
2
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-3.4
-6.7
-1.6
-4.35
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
-7.8
-0.6
-0.2
-4.08
Low
21:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
-4.2
-1.4
-0.4
-0.42
Low
21:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
3.8
-0.9
-0.2
-1.07
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-8.8
3.6
1.8
1.60
Low
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
94.5
93.6
96
94.85
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
34.7
36.6
38
42.58
Medium
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-1.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.42
High
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-4.1
-3.4
-3.6
-5.88
High
02:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
-0.3
4.3
4.5
3.92
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
5.91
6.22
5.9
5.90
Low
21:45
NZ
Exports
4.93
5.85
5.1
4.92
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.976
-0.368
-0.2
-0.65
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.65
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
0.9
1.2
0.4
0.72
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Output
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.60
Low
14:40
NZ
Global Dairy Trade Price Index
0.5
4.2
-1
0.68
Low
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
50
46.9
47.7
47.28
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
52.1
48.8
49.6
49.62
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.3
43.1
45.3
44.97
Medium
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
14.8
30.4
41.5
41.80
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
4
4.8
4.4
4.25
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
1.7
-1.7
0.9
0.90
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
1.6
-0.6
-1
-1.67
Low
02:30
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.5
2.76
2.6
2.68
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.9
72
72
71.95
Low
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
1
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
21:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.30
High
21:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4
3.9
4.2
4.17
High
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.9
4.1
3.8
3.82
Low
15:00
NZ
Global Dairy Trade Price Index
4.2
2.3
-1
0.68
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
3.7
-10.6
6.2
6.00
Low
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
93.6
93.1
94
92.85
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
36.6
33.2
30
34.58
Medium
Sunday, January 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.94
5.95
6.1
5.92
Low
21:45
NZ
Imports
6.26
7.2
6.7
6.70
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.323
-1.25
-0.6
-1.05
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
4.3
3.3
3.6
3.02
Low
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
CPI
1259
1253
1259
1259.00
High
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
4.7
5.6
4.7
4.62
Low
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.5
1.8
0.5
0.45
Medium
Monday, January 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
48.8
51.1
51.5
51.52
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.8
49
49.6
49.18
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
30.4
39.8
25
25.30
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
43.1
46.7
47.8
47.47
Medium
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
4.8
6
5.7
5.55
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-2
1.7
0.3
0.30
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-0.6
2.1
2.5
1.83
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-2
-52
-40
-45.67
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
91.4
87.3
87.5
86.50
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-10.6
8.5
2
1.80
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
New Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ Falls Sharply in December December 2025 Terms of Trade QoQ Declines 2.10 Percent Terms of Trade QoQ measures the quarterly change in export prices relative to import prices, reflecting New Zealand’s external trade competitiveness. In December 2025, NZ’s Terms of Trade QoQ dropped by 2.10%, reversing the prior quarter’s 4.20% gain and missing the 0.30% forecast. This decline highlights rising import costs and weaker export prices amid global commodity volatility. Fast facts: Terms of Trade QoQ at -2.10%, previous quarter 4.20%, release date December 1, 2025. Morgan Stanley notes this drop signals mounting pressure on NZD strength and export growth, complicating the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy outlook. Economist Jane Smith commented, “The sudden Terms of Trade QoQ reversal underscores external headwinds that may slow New Zealand’s economic momentum in early 2026.” Market reaction saw the NZD soften and bond yields ease as investors reassessed growth prospects.
The December 2025 ToT print of -2.10% contrasts sharply with the prior month’s 4.20% and the 12-month average of 1.90%. This reversal reflects a combination of falling export prices and rising import costs, particularly energy and intermediate goods.
Compared to the March 2024 trough of -7.80%, the current reading signals renewed volatility but less severe deterioration. The data suggests a cyclical pattern influenced by global commodity cycles and trade disruptions.