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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ fell to -9.0% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
New Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ fell to -9.0% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, down 7.1% from March's -1.9% reading. The reading missed the -2.2% consensus by 6.8%. Terms of Trade QoQ has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Terms of Trade QoQ is now the lowest in 100 months.
Latest Release
-9
Actual
-2.2
Consensus
-1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -2.2
Actual: -9
Error: +6.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Terms of Trade QoQ (New Zealand) was reported at -9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2.2% by 6.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.43%, down from the prior three at 1.3%. In September readings over the past 3 years, Terms of Trade QoQ has averaged -0.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Oct 18) and Inflation Rate QoQ (Oct 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Terms of Trade QoQ - NZ
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About Terms of Trade QoQ — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Terms of Trade QoQ (Quarter on Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the changes in the ratio of a country's export prices to its import prices over a specific quarter. It provides insight into the competitiveness of a country's trade and its ability to generate income from exports. A positive QoQ indicates an improvement in a country's terms of trade, while a negative QoQ suggests a decline. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's economic growth and balance of trade.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -9 %, consensus -2.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:30 | NZ | Business NZ PMI | 56.5 | 53.3 | 54 | 55.25 | Medium |
| 21:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.9 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.25 | Low |
| 21:45 | NZ | Food Inflation YoY | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.50 | Low |
| 21:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.50 | Low |
| Sunday, October 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | NZ | Services NZ PSI | 51.2 | 50 | 50.00 | Low | |
| 21:30 | NZ | Composite NZ PCI | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.50 | Low | |
| 21:45 | NZ | Exports | 6.66 | 6.5 | 6.59 | Low | |
| 21:45 | NZ | Imports | 8 | 7.6 | 7.58 | Low | |
| 21:45 | NZ | Balance of Trade | -1.349 | -1.2 | -1.31 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.071 | 3.009 | 3.01 | Low | |