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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ fell to -2.0% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
New Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ fell to -2.0% in Q1 2026, released June 2026, down 5.7% from December's 3.7% reading. The reading missed the -1.2% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.9%.
Latest Release
-2
Actual
-1.2
Consensus
3.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.85 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -1.2
Actual: -2
Error: +0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Terms of Trade QoQ (New Zealand) was reported at -2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.2% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.13%, down from the prior three at 3.03%. In June readings over the past 3 years, Terms of Trade QoQ has averaged 1.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.85%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Terms of Trade QoQ - NZ
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About Terms of Trade QoQ — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Terms of Trade QoQ (Quarter on Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the changes in the ratio of a country's export prices to its import prices over a specific quarter. It provides insight into the competitiveness of a country's trade and its ability to generate income from exports. A positive QoQ indicates an improvement in a country's terms of trade, while a negative QoQ suggests a decline. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's economic growth and balance of trade.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -2 %, consensus -1.2 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3.7 %. Before that (Jul 2025): -2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |