New Zealand’s visitor arrivals YoY growth accelerated to 9.60% in November 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably exceeds the consensus estimate of 3.60% and improves on October’s 7.50%, signaling a strong rebound in inbound tourism after a volatile year.

Geographic & Temporal Scope

The data covers international visitor arrivals to New Zealand over the past 12 months, with a focus on the November 2025 print. Key source markets include Australia, China, and the broader Asia-Pacific region, which together account for over 60% of arrivals. Seasonal travel patterns and recent easing of travel restrictions in major markets have influenced the recent uptick.

Core Macroeconomic Indicators

The visitor arrivals growth is occurring alongside a 3.20% annual GDP growth rate and a 4.10% unemployment rate in New Zealand. Inflation remains elevated at 5.30%, prompting cautious monetary policy. The tourism sector contributes roughly 5% to GDP, making these arrivals a critical driver of economic momentum.

Visitor arrivals are a leading indicator of tourism-related consumption, foreign exchange inflows, and employment. The 9.60% YoY increase in November 2025 reflects a recovery trajectory from the mid-year troughs of -8.40% in May and -2.30% in April, as recorded in the Sigmanomics database.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.25% to balance inflation control with growth support. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with 2-year government bond yields hovering around 4.80%. The NZD/USD exchange rate has shown resilience, trading near 0.62, supporting inbound tourism affordability for foreign visitors.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Government spending on tourism infrastructure and marketing has increased by 7% YoY, reflecting a strategic push to capitalize on the sector’s rebound. The 2025-26 budget allocates NZD 350 million to regional tourism development, aiming to diversify visitor flows and extend stays.

Drivers this month

• Australia: 12.40% YoY, boosted by eased quarantine rules and strong business travel.
• China: 8.70% YoY, reflecting resumed direct flights and relaxed visa policies.
• Asia-Pacific overall: 9.10% YoY, driven by leisure travel demand.
• Europe: -1.20% YoY, impacted by lingering economic uncertainty and higher airfares.
• Domestic tourism spillover: 3.50%, supporting regional economies.

Policy pulse

The visitor arrivals growth aligns with the RBNZ’s inflation target zone, suggesting that tourism-driven demand is contributing to upward price pressures. The central bank’s cautious OCR stance aims to prevent overheating while supporting economic recovery.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The NZD/USD rose 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting optimism about tourism’s contribution to economic growth. The 2-year government bond yield edged up 5 basis points, pricing in a slightly stronger growth outlook. The S&P/NZX 50 index also gained 0.40%, led by travel and hospitality stocks.

Looking ahead, visitor arrivals are expected to continue growing, but risks remain. The baseline forecast anticipates 7-10% YoY growth over the next six months, supported by stable global demand and ongoing government initiatives.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global economic recovery accelerates, boosting discretionary travel.
• Further easing of travel restrictions in Asia and Europe.
• NZD remains stable or weakens slightly, enhancing price competitiveness.
• Visitor arrivals could exceed 12% YoY growth.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate global growth with some geopolitical tensions.
• Current travel policies remain steady.
• Visitor arrivals grow 7-10% YoY, consistent with recent trends.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• New COVID-19 variants or geopolitical shocks disrupt travel.
• NZD strengthens sharply, reducing inbound demand.
• Visitor arrivals growth slows to 2-4% YoY or stalls.

Overall, the outlook favors continued recovery but requires monitoring of external shocks and currency fluctuations.

New Zealand’s visitor arrivals YoY growth of 9.60% in November 2025 marks a significant milestone in the tourism sector’s recovery. Supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions, targeted fiscal policies, and improving global travel sentiment, the sector is poised to contribute meaningfully to GDP growth and employment.

However, risks from geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and currency volatility warrant cautious optimism. Policymakers and market participants should closely track these dynamics to adjust strategies accordingly.

Data sourced from the Sigmanomics database, cross-verified with Statistics New Zealand and RBNZ releases, ensures robust analysis and reliability.

Selected tradable symbols relevant to visitor arrivals and New Zealand’s economic outlook include:

• NZX50 – Reflects overall market sentiment including tourism-related stocks.
• NZDUSD – Key currency pair influencing inbound tourism affordability.
• AUDNZD – Tracks relative strength of Australia, a major visitor source.
• BTCUSD – Proxy for risk sentiment affecting discretionary travel spending.
• AIR – Airline sector exposure linked to travel volumes.