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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Balance of Trade fell to -5.97B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Philippines Balance of Trade fell to -5.97B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.48B from June's -5.5B reading. The print came in cooler than the -4.4B consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -4.32B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -5.21B, vs -4.72B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-5.973
Actual
-4.4
Consensus
-5.497
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -4.47
Actual: -5.97
Error: +1.51
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Philippines) was reported at -5.97 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4.40 billion by 1.57 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -5.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.53 billion, ranging from -5.97 billion to -3.51 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -5.46 billion, down from the prior three at -4.57 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.93 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.76 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -4.77 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.70 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PH
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About Balance of Trade — Philippines
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -5,973 M, consensus -4.4 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -4.939 M. Before that (May 2026): -5.481 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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