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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Balance of Trade fell to -5.15B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Philippines Balance of Trade fell to -5.15B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.86B from August's -4.29B reading. The print came in cooler than the -4.3B consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -4.47B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -4.91B, vs -5.46B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-5.15
Actual
-4.3
Consensus
-4.29
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.06 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -4.08
Actual: -5.15
Error: +1.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Philippines) was reported at -5.15 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4.30 billion by 0.85 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -4.29 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.64 billion, ranging from -5.97 billion to -3.51 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.99 billion, up from the prior three at -5.46 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.92 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.76 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -4.63 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.06 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PH
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About Balance of Trade — Philippines
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -5.15 M, consensus -4.3 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -3,850 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -5,973 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | PH | Balance of Trade | -5.15 | -4.29 | -4.3 | -4.72 | Low |
| 01:00 | PH | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | PH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 50.3 | 50.60 | Low | |