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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Balance of Trade fell to -5.97B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Philippines Balance of Trade fell to -5.97B in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.94B from March's -5.03B reading. The print came in cooler than the -3B consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -4.1B, vs -3.78B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-5.965
Actual
-3
Consensus
-5.025
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -2.94
Actual: -5.97
Error: +3.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Philippines) was reported at -5.97 billion in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -3.00 billion by 2.97 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -5.03 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.02 billion, ranging from -5.97 billion to -3.29 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.57 billion, down from the prior three at -3.90 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.71 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.69 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -4.21 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.70 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PH
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About Balance of Trade — Philippines
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -5.965 M, consensus -3 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -4.512 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -3.683 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.